TheRex Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 2 hours ago, telejunkie said: Ugg...looks like I be throwing on my snow tires Tuesday evening....12z NAM saying might be dealing with a mixed bag of p-types here 12Z Nam has me needing the snowblower while the 12Z GFS just has a wet mix for my area. I'm going to stake my driveway today tomorrow just in case the NAM wins 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 12z Euro came in much better cold and snow wise, like the NAM/CMC: 0z top/ 12z bottom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 18z NAM is S & E with the snow, inching closer SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 4 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: 18z NAM is S & E with the snow, inching closer SE Hoping this isnt a short range headfake. Haha. Trending very nice for us interior folks, along I99. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Sure with SREF plumes would work again.. or is it just me? Been broke for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 14, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Sure with SREF plumes would work again.. or is it just me? Been broke for days. Here's the 21z mean, haven't been working for me either. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: Sure with SREF plumes would work again.. or is it just me? Been broke for days. Whatever would we do without them? Theyre so valuable. I sure hope they HRRR doesn't stop working. Ah, back in the saddle. Ill see myself out. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/10/2022 at 3:38 AM, so_whats_happening said: Thoughts overall still the same regardless of each model timing/ outcome. Snow swath from western/portions of central PA (can probably include the Poconos), into western NY (maybe can extend into the Catskills now), VT and NH can also probably include areas of eastern OH and WV if precip doesn't move out too quick. Maine folks you already know except maybe coastal regions will be a tough call depending on exact track. Low rides along eastern Apps to just around 95 corridor. Most are rain except high terrain and again just how much cold air can get in to those NW will determine how much snow falls. Coastal areas could push 50's maybe even localized 60s while most stay in the low 40's maybe even upper 30's. Tis the season! Seems for the most part to be holding true. Had a busy weekend so I could not update much but overall the Euro definitely with the win on this GFS bouncing around way too much to finally catch on to the Euro depiction of a weak system moving through. The only thing with the Euro is that it can sometimes struggle with temp profiles especially in areas where it is a close call. Seems like the only thing that would be wrong was my thoughts on Eastern OH and WV, the precip looks to move out before anything can happen once the cold finally gets there. It really depends on just how long the Primary low can hold on as for snowfall into western PA and western NY. Overall I think most snow areas look like 1-3", terrain may offer some higher totals and depending on what happens with the system as it goes through SNE and into the gulf of Maine may throw as much as 3-6" in VT/NH/ and through much of Maine unfortunately may not be the case in the southern portions of VT and NH though as warm air aloft will likely get to those regions. Coastal areas of Maine may struggle until 850 crash and just how much precip gets held back will determine if much accumulates. Down here im expecting mostly rain, cold at that but would not be surprised to see some flakes mixing in. If I can get a chance to make a map I will. EX: Pittsburgh maybe an inch, tough call with remnant low nearby may end up being just too warm. State College/ Williamsport: 1-2" they tend to hold onto cold just a bit longer than other places so they can squeeze out some fun. Poconos: 1" yea probably not going to be popular for that call but they tend to warm up rather quick and could mix with rain after an hour or two of snow. Albany/ Binghamton: 2-3" they may actually do well in holding cold Catskills: maybe 1" more the further NW Burlington: 1-2" more as you get further south but not too far south as southern VT and NH may transition quickly to rain. Interior Maine may be the winner here with 2-4" and some random spots of 3-6". Terrain especially in the VT/NH area could also get close to that 3-6" range. Overall not bad at all for mid November enjoy what flakes you get! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 (edited) NAM EURO gfs, nice little first storm here: Edited November 14, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 14, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 14, 2022 NAM snow depth change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted November 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 14, 2022 11 hours ago, JDClapper said: Sure with SREF plumes would work again.. or is it just me? Been broke for days. I emailed the SPC a few days ago asking about them. I'll post any response here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hiramite said: I emailed the SPC a few days ago asking about them. I'll post any response here. Its back online! NOW we can get answers re: this threat! Finally. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Its back online! NOW we can get answers re: this threat! Finally. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 14, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 minute ago, MDBlueridge said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, MaineJay said: 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 BTV's snowfall forecast map. They went with Oprah's "Everyone gets snow". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Snowmaps sucks, and kuchera is garbage. But this is beginning to escalate. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Sterling going conservative. This is prob a good guess atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: NAM snow depth change. NAM is beautiful for us farther south! GFS not bad either now. However almost all the models are showing a lot of ice in the catskills/ Shawangunk ridge where I live at 1500'. Most all show .25"+ of freezing rain on top of 1-3" of snow. 6z GFS snow and ice maps: 3k 6zNAM ICE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted November 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 14, 2022 (edited) 12 hours ago, JDClapper said: Sure with SREF plumes would work again.. or is it just me? Been broke for days. SPC was notified of it this weekend and will try to get it fixed. Will hopefully be back today Edit: looks like we got one run yesterday then nada lol Edited November 14, 2022 by Ingyball 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post PA road DAWG Posted November 14, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted November 14, 2022 (edited) Well hello there everyone. Allow me to dust off as I wake up from hibernation and gear up for another season of epic disappoints…errr I mean fun 🤩 Edited November 14, 2022 by PA road DAWG 7 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted November 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Well hello there everyone. Allow me to dust off as I wake up from hibernation and gear up for another season of epic disappoints…errr I mean fun 🤩 12z NAM continues to display the warm nose pushing into the region...but delivering first measurable snow of the season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 BTV is much more bullish on this event than they were 24 hours ago. It seems they are going with a cooler solution. Quote ".SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 319 AM EST Monday...There has been quite a shift in the deterministic and ensemble guidance over the past 6 to 12 hours. Before we dive into the details, the BLUF is snow totals have increased by 1 to 4 inches with the latest forecast package. Now, onto the details. A complicated surface pattern will be present Tuesday night with a decaying low pressure system tracking across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Typically, a low track to the west spells doom and gloom for snow totals across the North Country. However, in this instance, a triple point low is forecast to develop off the Virginia coastline during the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This feature will rapidly become the dominant low pressure system and will be deepening quickly as it moves across the New England coastline on Wednesday. The surface low over the Great Lakes will actually shut off the warm conveyor belt from the developing system allowing for cold air to remain entrenched across the region. The latest runs of the NAM and CMC in particular show a much colder air mass in place compared to the GFS and ECMWF. Given temperatures will be below normal as precipitation begins to enter the North Country Wednesday morning, all precipitation will start off as snow. This part is easy while the next part is not. The GFS and ECMWF show a warming trend although steady precipitation is expected throughout the day. The more reasonable solutions, in our opinion, favor temperatures remaining steady state as an area of frontogenesis in the northwest sector of the coastal low should keep precipitation rates high enough to help bring the colder air to the surface. Given this thought, we have lowered high temperatures 3-4 degrees on Wednesday as a result. The lower temperatures and increased QPF associated with the current forecasted track has allowed us to increase snowfall totals to 2-6 inches across the region with the highest amounts across the Adirondacks and northern sections of Vermont excluding the Champlain Valley. The mountains of Vermont could do very well with 6-10 inches very likely based on the latest probabilities. You can visit weather.gov/btv/winter to see our storm total snowfall map and probabilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 14, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 14, 2022 Hopefully, my little bit of elevation helps out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 14, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 14, 2022 Hi-res FV3 is much more aggressive with the warm nose than the NAM3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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