Iceresistance Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 24 minutes ago, RobB said: Boooo 🙂 But, if he predicts snow, he runs away to Australia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Interior.. EPS has several members with a snow chance for Wednesdsy.. but is like 'nope' for Friday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 10, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted November 10, 2022 So.. it’s at the tale end of the dates listed, but really this show would be the 18th-19th. But.. the GFS has been consistently pointing to this in consecutive runs. The Euro is not.. what’s going on here? How will this game of chicken end? Lol 😂 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 10, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted November 10, 2022 Looking at the GEFS.. Different story. The operational has an inland Miller B. Looks like the blended ensembles are well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 10, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 10, 2022 Let's look at the ECMWF and GFS to see the differences pertaining to the 18-19 th potential. GFS has a more compact/discrete wave moving through. I think a large reason it can amplify is due the larger trof axis of the Houston Bay vortex reaches into the upper great plains/ upper MS valley. Whereas the ECMWF brings it more into the Ohio valley. This keeps things more progressive, and frontal until it develops further NE. I don't think they are worlds apart by any means. Generally, I'd side with the ECMWF being the higher probability outcome, but again, wouldn't take a herculean effort for the euro to look more GFS in subsequent runs. A new thread could be created, or we could expand the time frame. Make sure to refresh the page if they aren't synced. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 11, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted November 11, 2022 🤦♂️ It’s not that I’m unhappy.. because my region of SCPA would do alright here.. but this back and forth between the 16th and 18th is… interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Penn State said: 🤦♂️ It’s not that I’m unhappy.. because my region of SCPA would do alright here.. but this back and forth between the 16th and 18th is… interesting. Well it looks like GFS finally took a step toward a solution and linked up with the Euro. I would be cautious for precip in SCPA and SEPA being cold enough for all snow. Temp profile is really not all that great and with a weak system WAA gets deflected east with some of the heavier precip so dynamic cooling may not be much of a thing. Terrain will most likely be your friend if this track and intensity holds. Still 5 days from precip starting so at least we seem to be converging on the idea of a weaker storm. I still believe this has the chance to be further NW than being depicted here though. More so out of all this would like to start seeing some consistency run to run. Euro is well too warm for any snow outside of higher terrain and even they may struggle. GFS and CMC seem to be inline with temps so terrain and further NW get into some flakage. If it was a more put together system the cold would be there to help at least initially get snow before the switch (of course nothing more than mood flakes though) but it would also be more NW the best example of that was what the GFS was trying to do with it yesterday through much of Ohio, PA, and NY. Taking a look at the GEFS we are seeing less pressing down across Eastern Canada/ Greenland region allowing for more ridging. Less ridging presence into Alaska and NW Canada but with energy being held back into the SW the initial shortwave just gets sheared out and slight push NW is very possible in future runs with more ridging presence off the east coast with less pressing from the Eastern Canada region. Overall this is turning into something that is just a passing wave. If this is a sign as to how winter may go im not liking the positive tilted trough we are seeing take place with this system. Really hope that is not the case this winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 I'm interested to see if things change at all on the models after the post hurricane system moves through the region later today and tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 11, 2022 There's just so many vorts running around that it's really difficult to figure out who wants to shake hands with who, and where. Ukie and GFS seem to have dual vorts near the OHV, where the EC/CMC seem to consolidate them, or actually, looks more like the lead wave is sheared. EC keeping energy back to the SW as is it's bias, GFS in this camp. GFS looks the most "out of sync" with the other 3 in regards to the energy near lake Winnipeg. Gonna change with the 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 11, 2022 I count about 70% of EPS members dropping some flakes for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 11, 2022 18z GFS is a big ole tease. ECMWF isn't that far off. It's just that the GFS deepens it 17mb in 12 hours, likely leading to that extra dynamic cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 11, 2022 H5 vort round up. Strongest to weakest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Starting to hone in on this one in recent runs. Late Tuesday Night - Wednesday event, interior white possibility (definitely favor elevation, but valley could get some slushy accum too). H5 for 12z suite for Monday, 7pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Surface 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Probabilities for 0.25" qpf sleet/snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 12, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 12, 2022 A look at our baby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 (edited) 40 minutes ago, MaineJay said: A look at our baby. I was born a storm. I identify as a storm. But MJ says, I'm just a baby! Edited November 12, 2022 by JDClapper 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 18z NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Snow depth through 1am Wed.. generally 1-3", per long range 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 0z NAM maling this look like a moderate potential for the interior. Hmm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 NAM/ CMC fairly close both more snow colder farther south than gfs/euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 12 hours ago, JDClapper said: 0z NAM maling this look like a moderate potential for the interior. Hmm @JDClapper It's snowing lightly today so I guess I'll bite... This one is starting to look fun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 12z hi rez Canadian looks nice: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted November 13, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 13, 2022 Ugg...looks like I be throwing on my snow tires Tuesday evening....12z NAM saying might be dealing with a mixed bag of p-types here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 minute ago, telejunkie said: Ugg...looks like I be throwing on my snow tires Tuesday evening....12z NAM saying might be dealing with a mixed bag of p-types here Lucky lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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