Hurricane Nicole | Peak 980mb 75mph |Post Tropical 1001mb 30mph| Final advisory issued

[StretchCT]

10:00 PM EST Tue Nov 8
Location: 27.1°N 74.8°W
Moving: WSW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

 

Edited November 9, 2022 by StretchCT

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, Burr said:

See I know radar presentation isn't everything for a system but man this thing is hurting and at a time when typically tropical systems strengthen. Definitely seems subtropical at best. Low level water vapor is rather dry, mid and upper level at least have pushed most of rather dry air out. Color me surprised but it may just attain hurricane status with this look. Got a solid 24 hours until landfall into Florida and maybe 12 hours until it touches some of the Bahamas. Lets see what happens 5mph shouldn't be too tough right?

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

See I know radar presentation isn't everything for a system but man this thing is hurting and at a time when typically tropical systems strengthen. Definitely seems subtropical at best. Low level water vapor is rather dry, mid and upper level at least have pushed most of rather dry air out. Color me surprised but it may just attain hurricane status with this look. Got a solid 24 hours until landfall into Florida and maybe 12 hours until it touches some of the Bahamas. Lets see what happens 5mph shouldn't be too tough right?

Cool imagery though! Nice cold feed through much of the NW Atlantic probably hence why it is having a rough go of it.

[StretchCT]

Seems to have plateaued overnight. Pressure up a bit.  At first I was thinking that some dry air got to it. Then I was thinking that the center perhaps wasn't under the convection.  Both incorrect. While there is some dry air to its south, I'm not seeing it affect the core.  NHC 5am disco suggests the atmosphere isn't as unstable as it normally is and cloud tops aren't as cold as they should be. 

[StretchCT]

Morning shot.  Recon is also in there, hasn't found any strengthening.

[StretchCT]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Nice cold feed through much of the NW Atlantic probably hence why it is having a rough go of it.

Good call.  Levi makes note of this as well.  That low level stratus is from an inversion which created a very stable environment ahead and to the north of the storm.   Meanwhile, to the south is drier air. 

 

[so_whats_happening]

Can't say the system isn't trying to get itself really going. Just about what one could expect though for an almost mid November system. If we can ramp up convection around the center a bit it could touch Hurricane status hours before landfall but feel we are really just adding energy to the system overall to increase the wind field to better sustain itself. If this was more in the deep tropics I would be more concerned of a rapid intensification process occurring but it is doing what it can in the subtropics.

[MaineJay]

Got a Buddy who just flew Boston to Orlando, going with his family to Disney.   They were able to change their flight last night to land at 1030 instead of 4pm. Hoping it's not too bad for them, probably be a more memorable trip, good or bad...

[twinmama08]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Got a Buddy who just flew Boston to Orlando, going with his family to Disney.   They were able to change their flight last night to land at 1030 instead of 4pm. Hoping it's not too bad for them, probably be a more memorable trip, good or bad...

Unfortunately they just closed the parks.  Crazy.  I used to work there and closures were unheard of-- especially in advance of a storm.  Since COVID they close days out.   They should get some low-crowd days after it passes though.

[StretchCT]

First Vort message with hurricane strength sfmr winds. 986 slp, closed eye circular 28nm wide, outbound (WNW of center) surface winds 68kts and flight level 72kts. 

Also noting they discontinued the cone of uncertainty north of VA as well as the chance of tropical storm winds. 

Spoiler

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 17:02Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Name: Nicole
Storm Number & Year: 17 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 28

A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 16:30:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.52N 76.97W
B. Center Fix Location: 105 statute miles (168 km) to the NNE (13°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,303m (4,275ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 8kts (From the NW at 9mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix at 16:21:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 213° at 43kts (From the SSW at 49.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix at 16:23:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 68kts (78.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the WNW (284°) of center fix at 16:39:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 22° at 72kts (From the NNE at 82.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the WNW (298°) of center fix at 16:45:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) which was observed 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the WNW (298°) from the flight level center at 16:45:30Z

 

Edited November 9, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

There are winds at 90mph in Nicole, just at 950mb. 

 

These 60mph winds on velocity radar are 1k feet up and 10 miles or so off the coast.  Further out they are higher. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

St Augustine reporting sustained TS Force winds.

Lake Worth has sustained up to 43kts.  https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=lkwf1

Setttlement Point only up to 34kts though.https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

120 miles east of Cape Canaveral with 35kt winds and near 30ft waves  https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

 

[StretchCT]

[StretchCT]

Not the fastest moving.  This is 90 mins or so.

[StretchCT]

G'nite Nicole

[StretchCT]

Forgot about Bahamas radar. https://radars.bahamasweather.org.bs/

[StretchCT]

Water covering the beach in New Smyrna.  Next high is 9:24

https://www.volusia.org/news/new-smyrna.stml

[StretchCT]

Kinda suspicious but Mission 14 has 90mph peak flight level winds.  A reduced estimate of 75mph and an sfmr wind of 80mph. Oh, and a extrapolated slp of 977 (975 on prev. hdob)

and note the winds are from the south so this is the eastern side. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

39 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Kinda suspicious

They didn't take the sfmr wind readings, which makes it look even weirder when they took the flight level winds as 90mph.  Did go with 976 slp though. 

Spoiler

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 22:50Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Nicole
Storm Number & Year: 17 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 03

A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 22:18:18Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.61N 78.15W
B. Center Fix Location: 119 statute miles (191 km) to the E (93°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,911m (9,551ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 976mb (28.82 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Open from the west to the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 49kts (56.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (241°) of center fix at 22:15:51Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 346° at 54kts (From the NNW at 62.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WSW (247°) of center fix at 22:12:03Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not Available
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NA
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 190° at 78kts (From the S at 89.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the E (89°) of center fix at 22:24:49Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,070m (10,072ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 78kts (~ 89.8mph) which was observed 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the E (89°) from the flight level center at 22:24:49Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

Didn't matter, made it a hurricane anyway.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
600 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

Corrected header

...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MAKING LANDFALL ON GRAND BAHAMA 
ISLAND...

Recent observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that Nicole has strengthened in to a hurricane.  The maximum winds 
are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. 

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF FREEPORT 
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

Edited November 9, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

I've only found one signficant wind from the Bahamas, despite it's being located there for hours now and being upgraded to 75mph.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IBERRY34 with a 49sus 51g 

Just some gusts into the low 40s otherwise. Settlement point peaked recently at 36kts sus and 45kts gust. 

[btbucks]

Upgraded to a hurricane.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Definitely will be watching for tornadic supercells in the next 48 hours

 

[StretchCT]

Patrick AFB so far with the highest gust of 47mph.

This Vero Beach station had winds of 58sus/64g mph.

This is also Vero Beach and is blowing in the 50s

Fort Pierce is in the 40s

Florida Oceangraphic in Stuart is in the 60s

This one in Jupiter may be suspect.  Winds seem ok, but 85mph gust?

And another one in Stuart that is 51sus/64gust

So overall there is definitely tropical storm force winds now along the coast. 

 

edit:  it's breezy further north too.  This is from Palm Coast.  There are plenty of other sites supporting the wind, but not the gust.

Really TS winds all the way to Jacksonville. 

Edited November 10, 2022 by StretchCT

[Sentinel]

10 hours ago, twinmama08 said:

Unfortunately they just closed the parks.  Crazy.  I used to work there and closures were unheard of-- especially in advance of a storm.  Since COVID they close days out.   They should get some low-crowd days after it passes though.

This is likely an Insurance stipulation. Insurances are trying to find their way right now and liability is.... Well, liability. 

[StretchCT]

Flooding in New Smyrna  before it hits and before high tide 

also flooding today was Hutchinson Island where a small shark was seen in the floodwaters. https://www.wpbf.com/article/florida-nicole-sharks-flood/41915920#

Edited November 10, 2022 by StretchCT