Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 6, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 6, 2022 (edited) Not gonna take long for November to produce another crazy system with possibly significant severe weather. Hopefully we see less destruction this time. But this looks like an extremely dynamic system. Insane dry punch behind the dryline, intense negative tilt, relatively high dew points, and of course, very strong low pressure. Hard not to think about last December after what happened yesterday, and now we're seeing a system like this. But yesterday doesn't compare to 12/10/21, and for now, this doesn't compare to 12/15/21. Those were very high-end events regardless of time of year, so they set the bar very high and therefore diminishes the threat of most cool season events. Edited November 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 Parts of the Dakotas could see up to 40 inches of snow on Veterans Day 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 7 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Parts of the Dakotas could see up to 40 inches of snow on Veterans Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 The models do indeed have some impressive QPF values in the Dakotas with certainly a potential for snow/blizzard. Meanwhile, chance of rain in Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, JDClapper said: Might be the first legit blizzard of the season Edited November 7, 2022 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 7, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted November 7, 2022 (edited) Sounding in N KS. Probably the most favorable sounding for severe weather for this run. Very strong speed shear but mean storm motion relative to the boundary suggests a quick transition to linear storm mode. Wouldn't be surprised if there were tornado warnings regardless of storm mode with the ~990mb low very nearby. Edited November 7, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 The EURO looks similar to the GFS on the 10:1. But, I can't tell ratios, which is what amps the GFS up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 7, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted November 7, 2022 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Sounding in N KS. Probably the most favorable sounding for severe weather for this run. Very strong speed shear but mean storm motion relative to the boundary suggests a quick transition to linear storm mode. Wouldn't be surprised if there were tornado warnings regardless of storm mode with the ~990mb low very nearby. Euro has a different scenario regarding the severe threat. Further northeast, but that's the largest difference. Sounding near Siuox Falls/Siuox City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 7 hours ago, CrazyINwx said: The EURO looks similar to the GFS on the 10:1. But, I can't tell ratios, which is what amps the GFS up. College of DuPage has Kuchera Snowfall Ratios on the Euro and GFS models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted November 8, 2022 (edited) 0z NAM really sped up the system. I guess I'm not surprised about that. Long-range NAM is pretty clueless. Sounding in north-central IA. Hodograph is kinda straight still, but as I mentioned earlier, would favor a squall with embedded tornadoes. Edited November 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 On 11/6/2022 at 10:44 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said: Sounding in N KS. Probably the most favorable sounding for severe weather for this run. Very strong speed shear but mean storm motion relative to the boundary suggests a quick transition to linear storm mode. Wouldn't be surprised if there were tornado warnings regardless of storm mode with the ~990mb low very nearby. The synoptic situation for the northern plains snowstorm will be a warm seclusion. That's a synoptic type that is different from the Norwegian cyclone model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted November 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chinook said: The synoptic situation for the northern plains snowstorm will be a warm seclusion. That's a synoptic type that is different from the Norwegian cyclone model. In what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: 0z NAM really sped up the system. I guess I'm not surprised about that. Long-range NAM is pretty clueless. Sounding in north-central IA. Hodograph is kinda straight still, but as I mentioned earlier, would favor a squall with embedded tornadoes. If that is the case, why is the long range NAM still used for these situations? Not trying to be rude, I'm just a curious/learning mind. Thanks!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 (edited) I was starting to think storm fit the idea of when a well developed low goes into a confluent flow at 500mb. That synoptic type develops differently than the Norwegian cyclone mode. On further thinking, there is confluence in Manitoba at 500mb. But then I found this. Edited November 8, 2022 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 The 12z GFS has a 38" snowfall contour near Jamestown North Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted November 8, 2022 5 hours ago, Chinook said: I was starting to think storm fit the idea of when a well developed low goes into a confluent flow at 500mb. That synoptic type develops differently than the Norwegian cyclone mode. On further thinking, there is confluence in Manitoba at 500mb. But then I found this. Really has nothing to do with the severe weather threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Really has nothing to do with the severe weather threat maybe squall line could max out in intensity from 16z to 20z on Thursday. The convection allowing models have low CAPE and a narrow line of storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Something else to watch in this period is the remnants of Nicole for the OV/TN Valley. Models seem to be pushing this farther west after landfall with each set of runs bringing needed rains this way on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted November 9, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, Chinook said: maybe squall line could max out in intensity from 16z to 20z on Thursday. The convection allowing models have low CAPE and a narrow line of storms. Well, instability is always a limiting factor in the cool season, so, yeah, daytime heating wouldn't hurt. But that's the case regardless of whether it's a warm seclusion. But hypothetically, if a system takes a negative tilt past daytime heating, then the squall is going to be a nocturnal peak assuming there's even some instability. Edited November 9, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted November 9, 2022 (edited) 5% tornado for today and tomorrow related to Nicole. But the strong negative tilt in the Midwest shouldn't be ignored. Probably won't produce as big of an event now that we know the system has sped up... but should still be a HSLC squall. Edited November 9, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted November 9, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 9, 2022 A much more progressive system has resulted in less severe threat in my neck of the woods. We'll see what we can get though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 13 hours ago, snowlover2 said: Something else to watch in this period is the remnants of Nicole for the OV/TN Valley. Models seem to be pushing this farther west after landfall with each set of runs bringing needed rains this way on Friday. The Nam’s are bringing 2” as far west as Dayton now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Yea models nudged this west. Could get some locally higher amounts where training occurs. Maybe we'll get some rain out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Ice Storm Warning for South Dakota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now