Moderators StretchCT Posted November 1, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 1, 2022 (edited) This one seemed high in latitude to call tropical, but ok. Martin should be just a fish storm, maybe Greenland hit? Progged to reach 85mph FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 35.3N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 35.4N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 36.1N 50.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 38.7N 46.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 43.8N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 04/0000Z 51.5N 34.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1200Z 56.0N 34.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED MArtin Edited November 4, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 This looks more like subtropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 1, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 1, 2022 Take everything you've heard about tropical systems and throw it out the window! Formed from an occluded low, but the cyclone phase analysis suggests that it's non frontal warm core. But the SST's are only 25c and the upper air aloft is very cold which seems to be driving the convection. Shear is 25kts but since it's the same direction, doesn't matter.🤷♂️ Spoiler Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 01 2022 The occluded low over the central North Atlantic has developed deep convection over its center, while the frontal boundaries have become displaced a long distance to its east and north. At the same time, FSU Cyclone Phase Space analyses suggest that the system has developed a non-frontal warm core. Given these changes, the system has evolved into a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT scatterometer just observed the system and indicated that the intensity is currently at 45 kt with a large area of 35 kt-plus winds. Thus the system is now a tropical storm and given the name Martin. The system is moving toward the east-northeast around 8 kt, as it is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies in a split in the jet stream with faster westerlies both poleward and equatorward of the system. Martin should turn toward the northeast at an increasingly rapid forward speed during the next two days. The official track forecast is based upon the consensus (TVCN and HCCA) of the tightly clustered global and hurricane dynamical models. In about three days, Martin should decelerate as it merges with a developing extratropical low to its north. For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into a hurricane at high latitudes. The official intensity prediction steadily strengthens the system through 48 hr, which matches a consensus of the statistical, global, and hurricane dynamical models. Around 48 hr, Martin should transition into a powerful extratropical low as a cold front reaches near the center of the system. In about three days, post-tropical Martin should be merging with an developing extratropical system to its north but still be containing hurricane-force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 2, 2022 Martin getting close to hurricane, now progged to reach 90mph as extratropical storm 5:00 AM AST Wed Nov 2 Location: 35.3°N 52.1°W Moving: ENE at 15 mph Min pressure: 989 mb Max sustained: 65 mph Disco notes something like an eye feature that's formed. Spoiler Deep convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity with Martin this morning, with occasional hints of a eye trying to develop within the cyclonically rotating bands of cloud tops colder than -60C. This improved core structure can also be seen on a recent 0732 UTC GMI microwave pass. Earlier scatterometer imagery mostly missed the center, though the edge values of ASCAT-C in the southwest quadrant did show a peak wind retrieval of 44 kt. While earlier subjective satellite intensity estimates remained largely unchanged, given the improvement in satellite imagery seen this morning compared to last night, the initial intensity is being nudged upward to 55 kt for this advisory. Martin is starting to make the turn more northward as it accelerates at 075/13 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue to turn more northeastward and accelerate over the next 12 to 24 hours as it becomes captured by pronounced deep-layer trough in Atlantic Canada that is quickly amplifying towards the system. This same trough will ultimately fully capture Martin, leading to its extratropical transition. The merger of both systems is also forecast to lead to a rapid expansion of both the 34- and 50-kt radii and these have been increased significantly as Martin becomes extratropical. After this trough-TC merger, the resulting extratropical cyclone will slow down and then pivot eastward over the remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance is tightly clustered early on, but is also slightly east of the prior forecast track, so the latest track forecast was shifted in that direction. Another eastward adjustment was also made in days 4 and 5, in order to match closer with track guidance this cycle. Martin is having no issues maintaining moderate to deep convection near its center, thanks in large part to very cold (-57 to -59 degree C) 200 mb temperatures over the cyclone maintaining instability. Even though shear is forecast to increase over the next 24 hours, this negative factor will likely be offset by a pronounced jet streak developing north of Martin, with the cyclone being optimally placed for in its right entrance region, favoring large-scale ascent. Thus, Martin is expected to intensify further and is forecast to become a hurricane later today. The acceleration in the cyclone's forward motion may also help to increase its maximum sustained winds, and the latest NHC intensity forecast still shows Martin peaking in intensity as it becomes a large and powerful extratropical cyclone. This intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the bulk of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 35.3N 52.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 36.6N 49.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 40.6N 43.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 47.4N 37.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/0600Z 54.3N 34.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 04/1800Z 57.0N 35.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/0600Z 55.5N 34.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/0600Z 54.4N 22.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/0600Z 57.7N 13.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 2, 2022 Took out reference to Greenland due to it's now forecasted loop and then shooting over to the Hebrides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) Hurricane Martin Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022 1100 AM AST Wed Nov 02 2022 ...MARTIN BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE 2022 ATLANTIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 50.0W ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM W OF THE AZORES ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES Edited November 2, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 2, 2022 5:00 PM AST Wed Nov 2 Location: 37.1°N 47.6°W Moving: NE at 31 mph Min pressure: 974 mb Max sustained: 85 mph Looking at a peak now of 105mph. INIT 02/2100Z 37.1N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 40.4N 43.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 48.0N 36.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 04/0600Z 54.6N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/1800Z 56.3N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 05/0600Z 56.0N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/1800Z 55.0N 24.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/1800Z 57.0N 11.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 3, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 3, 2022 3:00 AM GMT Thu Nov 3 Location: 39.4°N 44.9°W Moving: NE at 39 mph Min pressure: 973 mb Max sustained: 85 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 3, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 3, 2022 Pressure deepened overnight, winds stayed about the same, probably spread out a bit more though. It's really moving fast though, 46mph. 9:00 AM GMT Thu Nov 3 Location: 41.9°N 41.4°W Moving: NNE at 46 mph Min pressure: 968 mb Max sustained: 85 mph Predicted to peak today at 90mph and go post-tropical. Hebrides still seem to be the target, Iceland taken out. Ireland in the expected wind arrival map. Spoiler Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022 Martin has maintained an impressive presentation overnight, with an eye feature appearing on and off in satellite imagery. However, recent images suggests a baroclinic zone is already starting to run under Martin's cirrus canopy from the northwest. This front has yet to infiltrate the core, per recent microwave imagery, and thus Martin currently remains a tropical cyclone. The latest Dvorak estimates remain unchanged, so Martin's intensity is held at 75 kt. Acceleration continues with Martin, but the latest heading is just a bit more poleward than before at a very brisk 030/40-kt. No drastic changes were made from the prior cycle, with Martin accelerating further and turning north over the next 6-12 hours as it becomes captured by an intense high-latitude trough from Atlantic Canada. After the phasing between Martin and this potent deep-layer trough completes, the combined system is forecast to slow down substantially as it occludes, followed by a faster eastward or east-southeastward motion as the large extratropical cyclone gradually weakens. The latest track forecast is quite similar to the prior forecast, continuing to favor a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global model guidance. Any additional intensification of Martin's maximum sustained winds will likely be of the non-tropical variety, as interaction with the trough will likely wrap some cool descending air along the southwestern side of Martin, potentially resulting a string-jet-like development that causes some strengthening. For this reason, a peak intensity of 80-kt is still shown in 12 hours as Martin becomes post-Tropical. With that said, the most important evolution with the cyclone over the next couple of days will be the dramatic expansion of its 34- and 50-kt wind field as the system becomes an exceptionally large and dangerous warm-seclusion-type extratropical low. In fact, the forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii and high-seas of the resulting extratropical cyclone are so large in 36 hours that it takes up a large chunk of the entire north Atlantic poleward of 50 degrees. After this time period, the extratropical cyclone should completely occlude and gradually start to decay as it loses its baroclinicity. However, Martin should remain a large and powerful extratropical cyclone into the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 41.9N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 47.9N 37.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 04/0600Z 54.7N 36.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 04/1800Z 56.2N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 05/0600Z 55.9N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 05/1800Z 54.7N 26.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 06/0600Z 54.5N 17.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/0600Z 59.1N 9.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin N Atlantic a bit rocky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 3, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 3, 2022 Wider view of N Atl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 4, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 4, 2022 Martin became post tropical sometime between 3pm GMT and 9PM GMT Definitely one of the faster moving hurricanes and furthest north forming one's I've seen over the years I've been watching these. Last update from NHC Post-Tropical Cyclone Martin Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022 900 PM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022 ...POST-TROPICAL MARTIN CAUSING STRONG WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...50.5N 34.5W ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM NNW OF THE AZORES ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 58 MPH...93 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Martin was located near latitude 50.5 North, longitude 34.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 58 mph (93 km/h). A slower northward to north-northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a much slower turn toward the east on Friday. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is then anticipated into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Martin's peak sustained winds will slowly decrease over the next few days, but it will continue to produce strong winds over a very large area well into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 4, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 4, 2022 Another look at pt Martin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 4, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 4, 2022 GFS and Euro have similar forecasts. GFS has this at 932 now though. OPC has it at 936. Since it's post tropical I guess I won't update the peak strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 4, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 4, 2022 Waves for this are taller than my house 12.5M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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