Chinook Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 credit: Evan Fisher @EFisherWX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 S WI/N IL surprisingly had numerous severe reports today including 1 tornado and 4 significant wind. That area wasn't in the marginal area when it was up in the OV yesterday on the day 2. No marginal was issued at all today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 The Sardis, AR Tornado has been rated EF-2 due to unroofing of homes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 6, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 6, 2022 (edited) I'm finally home. I've driven 12 hours in the past 36 hours. I paid sporadic attention through the day when I could. I got to Dayton around 6pm so I only got brief looks when I was stopped in Cincy traffic and when I stopped for rests/bathroom/gas. I saw all the tornado warnings happening and I wasn't too surprised. This was the worst case scenario I imagined for this event. Shear was ridiculous, so as long as the warm sector didn't get too rainy and get at least some sun, this was gonna happen. Storm mode seems to have been more favorable than I expected. I appreciate all the activity. There's only so much I can gather about an event from random tweets showing up on my timeline. On 11/4/2022 at 7:22 PM, Neoncyclone said: Strong tornado headed towards or hopefully just north of Boston and New Boston.... EDIT: This is obviously PDS too now. I saw that cell on Twitter and it reminded me of something you'd see in Mississippi. Almost like Bassfield in terms of structure, except the Bassfield supercell had a more elongated FFD (i.e., heavy rain core), which means upper-level winds were stronger with Bassfield. Also, this tornado is likely not gonna be borderline EF5. I saw some of the graphs with the TDS height/vrot, and one of the tornadoes scored like a 95% probability for EF4+, expected strength around 170 mph. The caveat in this case is that this was quite far aloft because of the damn radar hole. Edited November 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 6, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 6, 2022 (edited) Here's a comparison. Not as good of a match as I was thinking, but pretty decent. Radarscope image copied from Neon, of course Edited November 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Here's a comparison. Not as good of a match as I was thinking, but pretty decent. Radarscope image copied from Neon, of course Yeah the whole set-up felt like something you'd usually see in dixie alley, the deep moist layer, the crazy shear profile, saw some absolute classic hodographs with soundings sampled yesterday. Couldn't have said it better myself.👆 Edited November 6, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 6, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 6, 2022 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Yeah the whole set-up felt like something you'd usually see in dixie alley, the deep moist layer, the crazy shear profile, saw some absolute classic hodographs sampled yesterday. Couldn't have said it better myself.👆 Literally the only thing, I think, that really separates the shear in this case from Dixie Alley is that the winds didn't strengthen much after 500mb. In a significant tornado outbreak in Dixie Alley, those hodographs would be more elongated than that. Pretty similar to what SHV observed. But the storm mode was mostly linear by then, and this wasn't close to an Easter 2020 squall setup. But that rivals with the morning squall of 4/27/11 for the most extreme MCS I'm aware of. Of course there's gonna be a difference in thermo profile. You can expect the EML to be stronger/closer to the surface in E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK than Mississippi and Alabama, but that SHV sounding shows a pretty deep EML. Something I'd expect more of MS/AL. Edited November 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 6, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 6, 2022 (edited) I've created a new thread for a new potential severe weather threat. It's that time of year. Also notable is the fact that it's been 3 months since I've created a severe weather thread. There's only been 2 severe weather threads since then, but I'm very happy that there are more people that feel confident enough to make a thread. I used to create most of them, but my hope was that it wouldn't be the case for long. Edited November 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 6, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 6, 2022 (edited) Wikipedia page to keep up on the latest. A 160 mph EF3 has been confirmed with a nearly mile wide width and 41 mile path. The big time tornado, I think, has yet to be rated. 3 fatalities so far... 2 tornadic, 1 non-tornadic. 24+ injuries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_November_4–5,_2022#Confirmed_tornadoes Edited November 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 22 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: That tornado was also small as well! It goes to show that the size of the tornadoes does not matter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 7, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 7, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Here are my approximations of the EF-3 tornado tracks known so far. The Idabel tornado survey is not completely finished. I'm actually not sure if the survey of the first tornado (Paris) is finished either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Filtered tornado reports for the 11/4/22 event is up to 26 reports, not sure how many confirmed tornadoes we're up to. So far I don't think any EF-4+ tornadoes have been confirmed from surveys, currently have a high-end EF-3 and survey continues for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 8, 2022 (edited) Most impressive parameters are ahead of the dryline. Not sure if there'll be storms to take advantage of that. If there is, this is a nasty hodograph. Near the triple point is pretty nasty too... not as much as that warm sector sounding. Most importantly is that there's going to be storms near the triple point. Edited November 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 8, 2022 This is unbelievable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 On the DAT, there is now an EF4 damage point north of Clarksville. No official word yet from NWS, but it appears that tornado is going to be upgraded 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 48 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: On the DAT, there is now an EF4 damage point north of Clarksville. No official word yet from NWS, but it appears that tornado is going to be upgraded According to the Wiki link above in CV's above post it has been upgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Here's a photo of the damage that upgraded the Clarksville/Idabel tornado to EF-4 170mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 8, 2022 (edited) Officially a 6000 foot wide, 58-mile long tornado that peaked at EF4. Yikes. Hopefully no one remembers my opinion that there probably wouldn't be a long-track tornado, because if you do, that's a shame because that never happened Edited November 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 8, 2022 Unfiltered tornado reports. Back-to-back cool seasons with significant/violent tornado outbreaks, and the cool season has just begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 (edited) On 11/4/2022 at 9:03 PM, Neoncyclone said: Considering how many tornadoes were being reported around/after dark and the QLCS potential, this total is going to probably hit 30+ if I had to take a guess. Unfortunately looks like my prediction was pretty accurate. Edited November 9, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Even though there isn't any EF4 damage points in OK, that tornado still gets the EF4 rating along the entire path which means this is the first EF4+ to impact OK since 5/9/16. Quite the streak there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 9, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 9, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said: Even though there isn't any EF4 damage points in OK, that tornado still gets the EF4 rating along the entire path which means this is the first EF4+ to impact OK since 5/9/16. Quite the streak there "Oklahoma, the heart of tornado alley" is a thing of the past. This is the 21st century. Total has-been. (sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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