November 3 - 6, 2022 | Severe Weather | Horrible Tornado Outbreak for Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas

[ClicheVortex2014]

Valid for 7pm Friday, all the CAMs plus 12km NAM.

Significant timing differences that, I think, will make SPC hesitant to be bold with the first day 2.

Other than that, I think there's reasonable concern for pre-squall/warm sector cells that'd be capable of producing strong tornadoes. Where... though... is the question.

Regardless... given extreme shear, especially in the northern half of the squall, I would expect mesovortices in the squall.

Edited November 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

I haven't needed to break this out since April or May but here we go. STP overlapped with updraft helicity tracks

[ClicheVortex2014]

Great tweet that shows how a cold front aloft messes with a hodograph in the surface warm sector

 

[ElectricStorm]

Day 1 is up, slight risk expanded back into KS again

[ElectricStorm]

Day 2 is up with a 10 hatched 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Not surprised they went with 10% tornado/10% hatched, just a little surprised they did it with this outlook.

Here's the 4-panel SPC outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST 
   ARKANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Friday into Friday night
   across portions of the southern and central Plains into portions of
   the Arklatex. Scattered damaging gusts, hail and a few tornadoes
   will be possible.

   ...Southern Plains into AR/LA and Vicinity...

   A complex scenario for severe thunderstorm potential exists on
   Friday across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex
   vicinity. 

   The large-scale pattern will be characterized by a potent upper
   shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners/southern Rockies
   vicinity Friday morning. As the trough ejects eastward toward the
   Plains, a closed low is expected to develop and an intense 80-100 kt
   south/southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread portions of the
   southern Plains by evening. Meanwhile, strong warm advection will
   persist over the region on a 35-50 kt southerly 850 mb jet. This
   southerly low-level flow will transport rich boundary-layer moisture
   northward ahead of a cold front developing southeast across the
   central Plains the lower-MO/Upper MS valleys, and an
   eastward-advancing dryline across central/eastern TX. Mid/upper 60s
   F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline across TX into
   southeast OK/southern AR and LA. Boundary-layer moisture will
   diminish with north/northeast extent ahead of the cold front, with
   low/mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as northeast OK/northern AR.
   Widespread cloud cover will limit surface heating. However,
   steepening midlevel lapse rates atop an unseasonably moist
   boundary-layer will support moderate destabilization, especially
   across TX where moisture quality will be best. 

   Thunderstorm clusters will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
   period near the cold front from northwest OK into central KS. This
   initial activity will mainly be capable of hail and strong gusts as
   the surface cold front shifts southeast across KS and western OK.
   With time, warm sector convection is expected to develop in the
   vicinity of the I-35 corridor from south-central OK into
   north/central TX. Uncertainty remains regarding convective mode due
   to differences in guidance with the timing of surface boundaries and
   the ejecting upper trough. However, a mix of semi-discrete
   supercells and clusters/line segments initially appears possible
   beginning Friday afternoon. This activity will likely grow upscale
   into a QLCS across southeast OK/northeast TX toward western AR/LA.
   All severe hazards will be possible, including damaging gusts, hail,
   and a few tornadoes (a couple of which could be significant). 

   Of note continues to be differences in forecast guidance regarding
   the timing of the ejecting of an upper trough over the southern
   Rockies Friday morning. The ECMWF/GFS solutions are around 3-6 hours
   quicker with the eastward progression of this system compared to the
   NAM/HRRR/HREF/SREF. This also has implications for the evolution of
   the surface cold and the dryline. Given this uncertainty, in
   conjunction with latest guidance from various CAMS, HREF and the
   NCAR HRRR Neural Network Convective Hazards guidance, the Enhanced
   risk has been expanded westward toward the I-35 corridor in
   north/central TX.

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

The clouds are streaming north very quickly! I have also discovered a moisture surge that occured this morning, the Dew Point was 56°F at 4 AM this morning, now it's at 61°F!

[Iceresistance]

9 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Great tweet that shows how a cold front aloft messes with a hodograph in the surface warm sector

 

The 12z Mesoscale models are starting to shift west, except the NAM

[ClicheVortex2014]

Morning satellite shows widespread fog over much of the Southern Plains but quickly burns out. 

Sure enough... a nearly completely saturated layer is already in place below a cap.

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Morning satellite shows widespread fog over much of the Southern Plains but quickly burns out. 

Sure enough... a nearly completely saturated layer is already in place below a cap.

That fog literally caused the moisture surge in my area, the dew point is currently at 62°F

[Iceresistance]

D2 Enhanced risk expanded east, there is more room for a Moderate Risk somewhere in NE Texas

[Neoncyclone]

18z HRRR 40 hour loop. plenty of storms out ahead of the front, a saving grace might be that the more meridional storm-motion with this event causes lots of storm interaction keeping the tornado threat down. 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[ClicheVortex2014]

30 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

18z HRRR 40 hour loop. plenty of storms out ahead of the front, a saving grace might be that the more meridional storm-motion with this event causes lots of storm interaction keeping the tornado threat down. 

Yeah I was gonna say, looks like a messy storm mode. Seems unlikely that there'll be long-tracked tornadoes... though the very quick storm motion would certainly make that easier to achieve... but strong tornadoes seems like a good bet.

Can't sleep on the squall with this crazy shear.

[ClicheVortex2014]

HREF has some UH tracks in the vicinity of a mean of 4 STP. Certainly very rare for November. Just gotta hope messy storm mode saves the people of Texas.

Certainly seems like NE Texas and E Texas are the highest threat for tornadoes.

Edited November 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Love the double EML at FWD this evening

[ClicheVortex2014]

Unfortunately, prior to realizing the scope of tomorrows event, I've planned to go to Dayton tomorrow to visit some people before I move to Amarillo next weekend. I'll probably be done driving by the time the event starts, but I'll likely be too busy to post. I'll definitely be trying to sneak peaks at the radar.

Edited November 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Unfortunately, prior to realizing the scope of tomorrows event, I've planned to go to Dayton tomorrow to visit some people before I move to Amarillo next weekend. I'll probably be done driving by the time the event starts, but I'll likely be too busy to post. I'll definitely be trying to sneak peaks at the radar.

I'll try to get you in if there is a PDS Tornado Warning or Emergency. Just check the radar every so often!

[Neoncyclone]

Good morning everyone, 09z HRRR shows a lot more space in between storms, still looks a bit messy, but compared to previous runs it's a lot cleaner. hopefully it doesn't become a trend this morning because if this verified I could even see a long-track tornado or two happening.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[CentralLA_Wx]

Looking like the threat here in central Louisiana will be overnight (main threat is damaging wind with leading edge of squall line). Could also be some supercells ahead of main line. Right now SPC has me in just the 2% tornado risk zone but wouldn't be surprised if that increases some. 

[Iceresistance]

I don't like this sounding, the sounding over DFW is less favorable than the OUN sounding.

@ClicheVortex2014

Edited November 4, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Chinook]

Moderate risk added minutes ago! 15% hatched for tornadoes, 45% hatched for wind

[StormfanaticInd]

Think there is a threat for strong to severe wind gusts here in the OV tomorrow 

[StormfanaticInd]

Moderate risk now with significant tornadoes possible 

 

Edited November 4, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[snowlover2]

28 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Think there is a threat for strong to severe wind gusts here in the OV tomorrow 

Yep a marginal risk for wind was added tomorrow for E IN /W OH.