November 3 - 6, 2022 | Severe Weather | Horrible Tornado Outbreak for Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

Edited November 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

NAM is still crazy. Not surprised it hasn't changed significant in just 12 hours. We'll see about the next 48.

Central TX

 

Dallas area

Edited November 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

NAM is still crazy. Not surprised it hasn't changed significant in just 12 hours. We'll see about the next 48.

Central TX

 

Dallas area

Yeah, STP of 6.0 or something on the 12-km NAM in Texas. I wonder if it will turn out to have EF1+ tornadoes?

[ClicheVortex2014]

2 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Yeah, STP of 6.0 or something on the 12-km NAM in Texas. I wonder if it will turn out to have EF1+ tornadoes?

Given those parameters verify and storm mode is favorable for semi-discrete or discrete supercells, easily. But storm mode is up in the air at this point. I also don't believe NAM at this range.

[ElectricStorm]

Not a fan of how fast the GFS continues to show the dryline moving through here. 0z still shows getting past me around 21z 11/4, would probably need it to be just a bit slower than that. We're probably looking at morning convection/cloud cover issues regardless so it may not end up mattering much. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

23 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Not a fan of how fast the GFS continues to show the dryline moving through here. 0z still shows getting past me around 21z 11/4, would probably need it to be just a bit slower than that. We're probably looking at morning convection/cloud cover issues regardless so it may not end up mattering much. 

Yeah, GFS really is far quicker than NAM. Leads to a lesser, but still possibly significant severe threat. 

At this point, I'd imagine SPC will go with GFS. It'll also depend on what Euro shows.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Hodographs for the eastern Texas panhandle looks pretty crazy. 135 knots at or near the EL.

[Iceresistance]

I still don't get why the GFS is speeding up the storm system, normally they are slowing down when they arrive here. 

If this storm system does slow down when it reaches Oklahoma, the GFS needs a lot explaining to do!

[Ingyball]

ECMWF/RAP/HRRR have been hinting at a better severe threat Thursday night in Kansas. Pretty good area sounding for south-central Kansas. 

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

First look at the CAMs for Friday and it's not looking pretty to start off.

FV3 (to be fair, this model tends to go nuts)

 

3km NAM is much slower but still shows warm sector activity.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like they removed the 5% tornado area for tomorrow in the newest outlook 

[snowlover2]

Just had a rare day 3 update to add an enhanced area.

Quote

 Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN
   ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA...

   AMENDED FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND EASTWARD SHIFT.

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday into Friday
   night across portions of the southern and central Plains into
   portions of the ArklaTex. Scattered damaging gusts, hail and a few
   tornadoes will be possible.

   ...19z Update...
   Confidence has increased that the large-scale upper trough will
   eject eastward faster than previous forecast guidance suggested. As
   the upper trough is forecast to continue to intensify, increasingly
   robust low and mid-level wind fields are expected to overspread a
   destabilizing warm sector across much of central and northeast TX.
   The northeastern extent of the larger buoyancy is still somewhat
   uncertain, but strong forcing for ascent will likely support
   numerous thunderstorms with a risk for damaging wind gusts across
   portions of eastern OK, western AR and far southern MO. Confidence
   is highest that a strongly forced QLCS will move eastward near the
   cold front from early afternoon, and towards the Mississippi River
   Valley overnight. A 50+ kt low-level jet and large looping
   hodographs will favor damaging wind/mesovortex potential with the
   QLCS. The tornado threat remains less certain and is tied to the
   conditional risk for warm sector supercells ahead of the line, along
   with the magnitude of destabilization, and open warm-sector forcing.
   However, large 0-1km SRH (250+ m2/s2) and the potential for
   supercells does suggest a conditional risk for tornadoes (possibly
   significant). An Enhanced risk for mainly strong damaging wind gusts
   has been added for storms late Friday through early Saturday
   morning. The Slight Risk has also been expanded east for greater
   severe potential through the overnight hours with the QLCS.

   ---Previous Discussion 0723Z---

   ...Southern/Central Plains and Vicinity...

   Some forecast guidance has trended faster/more progressive with the
   northeastward ejection of a large-scale upper trough oriented from
   the northern Plains to the southern Rockies Friday morning. This
   trough will lift northeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley by
   Saturday morning, with a band of strong southwesterly deep-layer
   flow overspreading the region.

   Convection is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period
   along a cold front oriented from the Upper MS Valley to central KS
   and northwest TX. A 40-55 kt south/southwesterly low-level jet will
   support continued strong warm advection ahead of the front. Mid to
   upper 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints are expected as far north as
   northeast OK, diminishing with northeast extent into the Upper
   Midwest. Upper 60s to near 70 F boundary-layer dewpoints are
   expected across parts of southern/central and eastern TX. This
   seasonably moist air mass amid strong vertical shear will support
   organized severe thunderstorms near the eastward surging surface
   front.

   Strong to severe storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the
   period from central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Severe
   potential will increase markedly with eastward extent, especially
   across TX where stronger thermodynamics will align with favorable
   shear. A linear storm mode appears most likely at this time, but a
   few semi-discrete supercells also will be possible ahead of the
   front across the warm sector. All severe hazards appear possible,
   though damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be the main concerns
   through Friday night. The eastward extent of the severe threat is a
   bit uncertain given differences in timing of the front and how far
   east modest destabilization occurs. Some eastward adjustment to the
   Slight and Marginal risk areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

   ..Lyons/Jewell.. 11/02/2022

 

 

[Neoncyclone]

The new GFS and 3km NAM are way closer on timing of the trough ejection at 48 hours

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Glad SPC bumped up to enhanced even if it’s just for damaging winds. Imo they’re right to be hesitant about destabilization where there would be concern for significant tornadoes. If sufficient destabilization occurs… whew. Gonna feel more like March or April than November. 

[Ingyball]

Not a fan of the D2 downgrade here, but I'll leave my thoughts at that.

 

The ECMWF has been the most consistent with this storm and I believe it's capturing the Thursday night storms the best (21z RAP is very similar). 18z ECMWF didn't back down with the severe threat either. (Using large areas soundings)

 

RAP isn't too far off from the Euro, would still be a pretty good severe threat. 

The NAM has a very narrow corridor but it's still playing catchup in my opinion. 

 

Overall, looks pretty good for an overnight event in Kansas in November.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Ingyball

[ClicheVortex2014]

33 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Not a fan of the D2 downgrade here, but I'll leave my thoughts at that.

 

The ECMWF has been the most consistent with this storm and I believe it's capturing the Thursday night storms the best (21z RAP is very similar). 18z ECMWF didn't back down with the severe threat either. (Using large areas soundings)

 

RAP isn't too far off from the Euro, would still be a pretty good severe threat. 

The NAM has a very narrow corridor but it's still playing catchup in my opinion. 

 

Overall, looks pretty good for an overnight event in Kansas in November.

I haven't read the new day 2 but I'm thinking narrow cape and largely unidirectional hodograph is the issue? Obviously the low-level jet helps, but I can see some splitting supercells happening, muddying storm mode eventually.

Very well could see the 5% re-introduced though

Edited November 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

0z HRRR for NE TX Fri is spicy, it will be interesting to see what the tor risk on the new Day 2 is

Edited November 3, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I haven't read the new day 2 but I'm thinking narrow cape and largely unidirectional hodograph is the issue? Obviously the low-level jet helps, but I can see some splitting supercells happening, muddying storm mode eventually.

Very well could see the 5% re-introduced though

Just read it. I'm overthinking it

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

0z HRRR for NE TX Fri is spicy, it will be interesting to see what the tor risk on the new Day 2 is

Nixon makes a great point about how this is more Dixie Alley-like with respect to the wind field.

 

And yeah 0z HRRR is crazy. Hope it calms down before Friday.

[Ingyball]

29 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I haven't read the new day 2 but I'm thinking narrow cape and largely unidirectional hodograph is the issue? Obviously the low-level jet helps, but I can see some splitting supercells happening, muddying storm mode eventually.

Very well could see the 5% re-introduced though

If we were talking about an enhanced I'd agree with you, but it's plenty for a slight risk. CAPE is narrow but speed shear is more than sufficient. If I was looking for strong tornadoes I'd definitely would want surface winds backed more, but that's not what we're looking at (more of a damaging wind and hail threat). Of course models consistently underestimate how much winds tend to back locally with these strong surface lows so that will be something to watch. 15% wind/hail feels like a good outlook though. 

[Ingyball]

I will say that the HRRR does show a hodograph that would be a problem for severe storms to maintain themselves. Research doesn't show VBV being nearly the bust factor some chasers think, but Cameron Nixon does have a lot of data supporting these hodographs where the shear vectors parallel each other like this being destructive to storms. Though as a forecaster I still wouldn't use that 1 feature on 1 model to strongly influence an early day 1 (or any day after) outlook. Especially not a slight. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

13 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

If we were talking about an enhanced I'd agree with you, but it's plenty for a slight risk. CAPE is narrow but speed shear is more than sufficient. If I was looking for strong tornadoes I'd definitely would want surface winds backed more, but that's not what we're looking at (more of a damaging wind and hail threat). Of course models consistently underestimate how much winds tend to back locally with these strong surface lows so that will be something to watch. 15% wind/hail feels like a good outlook though. 

WRT the skinny cape, I was just thinking of this being too much shear for the instability profile.  I'm conditioned to thinking about that, apparently to a fault, because of SW OH.

To be honest, I was just looking at the instability profile, not what the values come out to be. Yeah, 900-1200 cape is enough. I've always viewed anything above 1000 in the cool season in the Midwest is sufficient for a major tornado outbreak given sufficient shear, which is typically only slightly stronger than what's expected here, but usually I'm expecting a bigger layer of fat cape. 

We're talking about a different region here. Different regions produce different setups.

6 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

I will say that the HRRR does show a hodograph that would be a problem for severe storms to maintain themselves. Research doesn't show VBV being nearly the bust factor some chasers think, but Cameron Nixon does have a lot of data supporting these hodographs where the shear vectors parallel each other like this being destructive to storms. Though as a forecaster I still wouldn't use that 1 feature on 1 model to strongly influence an early day 1 (or any day after) outlook. Especially not a slight. 

Yeah I'm guilty of giving too much credit to VBV in the past, but Cameron changed my mind.

Edited November 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

60 sigtor contour for Friday for exactly where you'd expect it.

 

FWIW, this is a little west than peak tornado climatology for early November. Not a knock on the likelihood of this event, but it is anomalous. 

Edited November 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

This sounding near Dallas is incredibly dangerous. Insane shear, moderate cape with a layer of relatively fat cape.

[Neoncyclone]

1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said:

0z HRRR for NE TX Fri is spicy, it will be interesting to see what the tor risk on the new Day 2 is

Man you weren't kidding, spicy is the word for it. If this verified and the squall was broken up a little bit like this I think there'd be plenty of space for bad things to happen.