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October 24-27, 2022 | Winter Storm Northern Plains and Severe Threat Southern Plains


StLweatherjunkie

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Confirmed tornado near Daphne AL.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
917 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022

ALC003-300230-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0091.000000T0000Z-221030T0230Z/
Baldwin AL-
917 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTY...

At 917 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Daphne, moving
north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Daphne around 920 PM CDT.

 

 

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Seems this event is essentially over. All those supercells occurred in the warm sector but now the cold front has overtaken much of the warm front (occlusion.)

Wouldn't rule out something sneaky along the cold front but we're no longer seeing warm sector supercells in the Gulf.

image.thumb.png.e81c1173f9cc311f081bdadfb3bae291.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • Meteorologist
1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Seems this event is essentially over. All those supercells occurred in the warm sector but now the cold front has overtaken much of the warm front (occlusion.)

Wouldn't rule out something sneaky along the cold front but we're no longer seeing warm sector supercells in the Gulf.

image.thumb.png.e81c1173f9cc311f081bdadfb3bae291.png

WPC surface analysis maps to show the occlusion process/weakening of the warm sector. Peak of the event is in the below 2 images. Notice the area between the cold front and warm front.

image.png.a8d3f00f64a57e9ba6678f158e83bf05.png

image.png.fd84f75d8522aaff06ccb17fcf84aadb.png

 

 

 

Surface synoptic analysis in a couple hours. Very narrow corridor... not much room for warm sector convection. Any possible severe or tornadic convection would be limited to the coast because of the time of day and width of warm sector.

image.png.a0d952f0499e74ec338efafd6e995e38.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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