Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 The shear side of the system is currently winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 Starting to take a negative tilt at 2am central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1899 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Areas affected...much of eastern Mississippi into western and northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251621Z - 251845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to gradually increase in intensity along a cold front, with sporadic wind damage and couple tornadoes possible. DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented line of storms currently extends from the MO Bootheel into western TN, and due south across the middle of MS. While northern parts of this line are surging quickly northeastward coincident with the shortwave trough, southern portions of the line are moving slower toward the east. Recently, lightning has been observed over central MS where MLCAPE remains below 1000 J/kg. Surface observations show warming over southern MS with temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 F, and this degree of warming may be needed for surface-based inflow parcels initially. With time, a few cells along the front may become severe, with sections of QLCS possible. Large scale lift is more favorable farther north, but low-level convergence along the front should be enough to initiate new storms later today given robust moisture. Large looping hodographs with 0-1 SRH to 300 m2/s2 will clearly favor rotation, with a conditional threat of brief tornadoes and corridors of damaging winds. The slow eastward movement of the line, coupled with diurnal considerations, do appear favorable for a discrete supercell or two later this afternoon, most notably where southern portions of the line interact with the stronger MLCAPE. Though models differ on storm coverage, any discrete supercells in this high shear environment could result in an isolated strong tornado within a relatively narrow zone. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/25/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 Squall is starting to break up, pretty well advertised by HRRR. Tornado watch is now up. I'd call it your average tornado watch probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Squall is starting to break up, pretty well advertised by HRRR. Tornado watch is now up. I'd call it your average tornado watch probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 James Spann is now getting on the ABC 33/40 coverage in Birmingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 This part of the line is worth watching. Strong southeasterly winds feeding into the strengthening squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 (edited) Line is slowly approaching. Fully expecting to lose power for an hour or two. Really doesn’t take much for it to go out. Hopefully it won’t be out that long since the rain shouldn’t last too long. Edited October 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Cold front rains later tonight... Good-bye upper 70s was nice while it lasted. We shall wait for the next cutter for warmer skies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 (edited) Squall is strengthening and on its way to hit me. I’d be hyped if I wasn’t concerned about losing power. I’m fine with losing power if it’s a great storm but I’m expecting maybe 30-40 mph winds. Not really worth it to me Edited October 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 26, 2022 So far so good. In the worst of it now. Notice my phone is at 100%. I’m ready for it to happen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 26, 2022 (edited) I've lost internet, not power, at least 10 times now in the past like 90 minutes. I've lost count. It's been for 2-5 mins at a time. Had no issues throughout the rain but now the rain is gone and I'm having problems. Still in the warm sector, winds are gusting up to 30 mph. Cold front is probably an hour or two away. I think the internet issues are getting better. At least there are false alarms/very brief outages now, and the longest I've gone so far with internet is about 12 minutes. But it's still very annoying. It's better than losing power though. I have unlimited data and my charging cord so I can use my phone as much as I want, but I only have 1 bar so it's very slow. Edit: new record is 13 mins and counting Edited October 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 26, 2022 Little over a week out but both major models are hinting at a strong system drawing moisture northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 20 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I've lost internet, not power, at least 10 times now in the past like 90 minutes. I've lost count. It's been for 2-5 mins at a time. Had no issues throughout the rain but now the rain is gone and I'm having problems. Still in the warm sector, winds are gusting up to 30 mph. Cold front is probably an hour or two away. I think the internet issues are getting better. At least there are false alarms/very brief outages now, and the longest I've gone so far with internet is about 12 minutes. But it's still very annoying. It's better than losing power though. I have unlimited data and my charging cord so I can use my phone as much as I want, but I only have 1 bar so it's very slow. Edit: new record is 13 mins and counting Man coverage there sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 26, 2022 39 minutes ago, junior said: Man coverage there sucks. Only one internet service that reaches us. It's great. It's fine though... got my final job offer for NWS Amarillo. I'll be starting on November 21. Doubt I'll have issues with internet/data there. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 9 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Only one internet service that reaches us. It's great. It's fine though... got my final job offer for NWS Amarillo. I'll be starting on November 21. Doubt I'll have issues with internet/data there. Amarillo by morning.....Congrats!!!!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 11 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Only one internet service that reaches us. It's great. It's fine though... got my final job offer for NWS Amarillo. I'll be starting on November 21. Doubt I'll have issues with internet/data there. Nice. Except that now you're due west of me on I-40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 28, 2022 (edited) Tornado warning in N Texas. Definitely could be something there. Edited October 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Tornado warning in N Texas. Definitely could be something there. That is just wild! It's in Late October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 On 10/26/2022 at 7:06 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said: Only one internet service that reaches us. It's great. It's fine though... got my final job offer for NWS Amarillo. I'll be starting on November 21. Doubt I'll have issues with internet/data there. congratulations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 It's a week out but I think it's time to start paying attention to 11/3-4 timeframe, GFS has been pretty consistent with a nice trough moving through, and some model runs are showing a fairly nice Fall season setup. Here in OK we typically see at least one solid Fall season event a year, this might have potential to be this year's. Something to keep an eye on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 On 10/26/2022 at 7:06 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said: Only one internet service that reaches us. It's great. It's fine though... got my final job offer for NWS Amarillo. I'll be starting on November 21. Doubt I'll have issues with internet/data there. Congratulations! Best of luck (tho you won’t need it), i’m sure you will do great and be a substantial addition to their office. Cheers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 On 10/26/2022 at 7:06 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said: Only one internet service that reaches us. It's great. It's fine though... got my final job offer for NWS Amarillo. I'll be starting on November 21. Doubt I'll have issues with internet/data there. Congrats buddy ❤️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 29, 2022 (edited) Thanks guys! Tomorrow looks kinda interesting. Very weak cold front for the end of October. Narrow warm sector but pretty crazy hodographs. Even though the warm sector is pretty small, it's still split between instability heavy and shear heavy. There's gotta be a middle ground, so it'll be interesting to watch Later in the day definitely favors the coast Edited October 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 29, 2022 (edited) Decent environment on the coast. Lapse rates are pretty weak but the very low LCL/moderate low-level shear should make it easier to get tornadoes. Edited October 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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