Chinook Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Compact V-shaped updrafts in these supercells/sheared storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 24, 2022 (edited) 5% tornado issued for Monday and Tuesday. Sounds like it's primarily a squall line event, no warm sector storms suggested. Day 1 says primary severe threat is going to be after dark. Not surprising in this case. ..SOUTHERN PLAINS A SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (12Z), FROM CENTRAL OK TO WEST-CENTRAL TX. 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN TX DEPICT UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, AND THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SQUALL LINE AND COLD FRONT ADVANCE EASTWARD. 5-6 C/KM TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, CONTRIBUTING TO TALL, THIN MLCAPE ROUGHLY IN THE 750-1000 J/KG RANGE. THOUGH BUOYANCY IS MEAGER, RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. AS SUCH, SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE SQUALL LINE APPEARS LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS TX, WITH DAMAGING GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. BY LATE AFTERNOON, SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN TX, AND THIS LOW SHOULD EJECT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY LATE EVENING AS A STRONG EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVERSPREADS TX. RE-INVIGORATION OF THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH SOME BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX. SIZEABLE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AMID MODEST BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TX AFTER 00Z. Day 2 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2022 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ..SUMMARY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY. ..SYNOPSIS A COMPACT BUT INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE, WITH 80+ KT OF 500-MB FLOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE TN VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD OVER AR BEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY REACH THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH, TN VALLEY, AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ..LOWER MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH INTO THE AL AND MS RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH MOSTLY UPPER 60S NOW FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST AL AND MID-60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MS AND AL. TWO SCENARIOS APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. ONE SCENARIO IS FOR THE LINE TO BE NEAR MAX STRENGTH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH, GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE OTHER SCENARIO, WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE, FORECASTS THAT THE LINE WILL BE RATHER WEAK EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THEN REINVIGORATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GIVEN THE TREND FOR MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MS AND AL, THE SECOND SCENARIO IS FAVORED, MERITING THE EXPANSION OF SLIGHT-RISK-EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES INTO MORE OF AL. DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG THE LINE, BUT STRONG VEERING LOW-LEVEL PROFILES COULD RESULT IN LINE-EMBEDDED/QLCS TORNADOES AS WELL. THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO EXIST FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL AL WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OCCURS. Edited October 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 12 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: So much going on here. Dust in Kansas. Gravity waves in New Mexico. Those in Ohio/Indiana... why is satellite showing so much brown? Only thing I can think of is crops. Could be leaves off the trees also??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 News 9 had a confirmed tornado near Mustang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Getting a line of storms here (no thunder yet though which is unusual) Pretty strong line despite it not looking super strong on radar. Unfortunately this might be our last chance for storms for a while. Nothing really showing up on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Negative tilt trough has me little bit on edge for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 24, 2022 and we're off. Already got a supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 24, 2022 A couple warm sector storms are developing. Notably one that appears to be on a remnant outflow boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 24, 2022 (edited) Didn't realize til now... most of this watch is in the marginal risk. The line got going quicker than expected. Edited October 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 24, 2022 Now two supercells at the southern end of the line. Worst place to have supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 24, 2022 Beautiful sky here in easternish Tennessee 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 24, 2022 (edited) Very interesting breakdown of how SPC does convective outlooks/watches/mcds/etc. I read it and I'm still blown away with how incredibly accurate they can be despite how much goes into it. Edited October 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 24, 2022 Here we go Mesoscale Discussion 1893 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Areas affected...portions of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 242348Z - 250145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase across portions of central Texas over the next few hours. Damaging gusts are the main threat, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible, especially along an outflow boundary. A WW issuance may be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and regional radar loops depict a nearly stationary surface boundary remnant from earlier convection, which delineates a moderately unstable surface-based airmass to the south and a weakly buoyant, mainly elevated airmass farther north. This boundary is oriented west-to-east along a LZZ to OCH line, with near 80F surface temperatures and 68-70 F dewpoints located along the boundary. Though low- and mid-level lapse rates are only around 5.5-6.5 C/km, the rich low-level moisture is contributing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southeasterly 10-20 kt flow along the boundary quickly veers to southwesterly with height. Both regional VADs and RAP forecast soundings depict large, curved low-level hodographs, and 23Z mesoanalysis shows up to 200 m2/s2 effective SRH already developing in the warm sector. As the LLJ strengthens this evening, low-level shear should intensify further across central TX. Current thinking is that storms in the Menard and Mason County areas should intensify as they move deeper into the instability axis and low-level shear strengthens. The storms may start off as transient supercellular before strong frontogenetic forcing encourages more linear segments. Either way, damaging gusts are the main threat, but a couple of tornadoes are possible, both with any semi-discrete storms or QLCS segments. The greatest overall severe threat and the best chance for a tornado will be with any storms that can interact favorably with the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 Got a supercell trying to produce something but, since supercells tend to move slower than mean storm motion, the rain band behind it is catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 (edited) That hook west of Jarrell... holy crap Now tornado warned. You can even see the inflow being sucked in on CC. Edited October 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: That hook west of Jarrell... holy crap Now tornado warned. You can even see the inflow being sucked in on CC. Someone on a different forum said it may be down, look at the CC at the Hook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Someone on a different forum said it may be down, look at the CC at the Hook! There might be, but I'd call the CC drop ambiguous right now. Very weak. Edited October 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: There might be, but I'd call the CC drop ambiguous right now. Very weak. All we need is storm reports to confirm it, even though it's extremely dangerous to even try to see this one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 (edited) Very strong low-level shear just ahead of this supercell. Extremely strong near-surface (0-1600 feet) shear Edited October 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 Radar got taken out 😞 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Radar got taken out 😞 Got reports of a Semi Overturned with cars in the ditch along I-35 near Jarrell, this is likely from a Tornado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Got reports of a Semi Overturned with cars in the ditch along I-35 near Jarrell, this is likely from a Tornado. Could still be damaging winds, assuming they were all blown in the same direction. But yeah, it certainly could've been a tornado based on velocity and reflectivity signatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 Plenty of low-level shear tomorrow for this squall. Also gotta watch closer to the Gulf coast for stronger instability and higher likelihood for (semi-?)discrete cells. Otherwise, there should be a sweet spot where low-level shear and cape are the most balanced and tornadoes are most likely. However, I think most of that squall could get a tornado warning. Seems like SPC got it right... no surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 25, 2022 (edited) Fairly large slight risk for tornadoes for this time of year. I'm fully expecting to lose power tomorrow for several hours because it apparently doesn't take much. ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast States today. Damaging gusts and tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will progress across the Lower Mississippi Valley as a 1002 mb surface low tracks from northern Arkansas to the Ohio Valley today. Adequate moisture and associated instability will advect ahead of the surface low across portions of the Southeast into the Tennessee Valley to support scattered to widespread strong thunderstorms. An organized severe threat may materialize across the Southeast where the stronger buoyancy and shear are expected to overlap. ...Portions of the Southeast into the TN Valley... Widespread clouds and precipitation are expected to precede the surface low and cold front at the start of the period. While the overall lack of insolation will hamper more robust buoyancy from materializing, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints should advect northward to the TN border through the afternoon, promoting 500-1000 J/kg of tall, thin MLCAPE (given 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates). Buoyancy should diminish with northward extent toward the OH Valley. A squall line should be ongoing at the start of the period across the Mid-South and is poised to move into a more unstable airmass across MS, AL and southwest TN by afternoon. In these areas, forecast soundings depict impressively sheared vertical profiles, characterized by long, largely curved hodographs with well over 50 kts of effective bulk shear and 300-500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. As storms intensify within the squall line, QLCS mesovortices may develop, with tornadoes and severe gusts being the main concerns. Farther north into Middle TN and points northward, scant buoyancy should limit the severe threat to a sparse damaging gust and perhaps a brief tornado. Edited October 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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