Meteorologist Ingyball Posted October 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 22, 2022 8 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Seems like the models are honing in on a threat in Kansas rather than E NE/W IA. Area average sounding for south-central KS... that's nasty. There is a slight inversion but, considering this is an area average sounding, there's gonna be some spots where there's sufficiently weak capping. Yup was talking about this at work yesterday. Looks like it may be one of those conditional days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 (edited) Still expecting a good amount of rain in 48 hours, I have a contest that started last night. Edited October 22, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralLA_Wx Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Some Dixie Alley potential next Tues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 25 minutes ago, CentralLA_Wx said: Some Dixie Alley potential next Tues? Yes, per SPC Discussion. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress from the southern Plains northeastward across the Mid-South and into the OH Valley on D4/Tuesday. An associated surface low will move northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front sweeping eastward as well. Moderate low-level moisture will likely be in place across the Mid-South and Lower MS Valley ahead of this front, supporting the development of thunderstorms along the front as it moves eastward/northeastward. Current expectation is that poor lapse rates and limited heating will temper buoyancy. However, given the strong forcing for ascent and intense kinematic fields, only modest buoyancy will be needed for a severe thunderstorms. As a result, a 15% area was delineated from southwest TN across much of MS for D4/Tuesday. Either way, welcome here! You're likely the very first from Dixie Alley to join here! 😄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 22, 2022 I'm skeptical about Sunday because of capping, but Monday and Tuesday look really impressive. Sunday has almost always had capping concerns, but those concerns evaporate afterward. Although they come from the same longwave trough, Sunday is a different event from Monday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 22, 2022 (edited) Windy as hell in the Oregon at UCLA game. It's related to the longwave trough dipping into the area. Edited October 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 22, 2022 (edited) Getting very concerned about Tuesday. Looks like a pretty classic Dixie Alley setup. I don't see a reason to doubt the moisture quality because of reasons I shared on the previous page, but GFS has a pretty narrow warm sector. That wouldn't mean anything for frontal storms, but would discourage severe warm sector activity. The difference in warm sector width is due to disagreements about how quickly the Southeast recovers from cold air damming. Edited October 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michelle Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 My Mother said she just had grauple at her place near Xenia....how is that even possible?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, Michelle said: My Mother said she just had grauple at her place near Xenia....how is that even possible?? Have you even had precip there? Radar looks dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michelle Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 I didn't see anything on radar a few minutes after she said it was happening. So weird. Also, it was 73 degrees at the time but she's certain it really did happen. 🤪 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 (edited) 11 hours ago, Ingyball said: Yup was talking about this at work yesterday. Looks like it may be one of those conditional days here. Most models have pretty low MUCAPE for the severe threat tomorrow. The convection-allowing models are not showing much. I think it just one of those days with a relatively common problem for fall, lack of instability. The HRRR does have a bit more activity for Kansas. Here is a map of I am talking about. The MUCAPE values are only 250-500 J/kg with a couple possible areas of activity. I would suppose that areas of convection could be in a few areas, but obviously the system is fighting with low CAPE. Edited October 22, 2022 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted October 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 23, 2022 2 hours ago, Chinook said: Most models have pretty low MUCAPE for the severe threat tomorrow. The convection-allowing models are not showing much. I think it just one of those days with a relatively common problem for fall, lack of instability. The HRRR does have a bit more activity for Kansas. Here is a map of I am talking about. The MUCAPE values are only 250-500 J/kg with a couple possible areas of activity. I would suppose that areas of convection could be in a few areas, but obviously the system is fighting with low CAPE. CAPE almost doesn't matter in this kind of setup. We're talking about 55-65kt winds at 850mb. It doesn't take much convection to mix those down. However, I am skeptical we actually see storms, I think the cap likely holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted October 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 23, 2022 Pretty impressive mean 850mb wind on the HREF for tomorrow. We'll see any storms form to take advantage of it, but won't be hard to get some reports if one does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 23, 2022 (edited) HRRR is showing one of those squalls that start early in the day and continue throughout. Seems pretty reasonable to think there won't be much, if any, strong warm sector convection given the trough is still positively tilted... though it gets close to neutral tilt by 0z. Tuesday should be a different story as the trough should be negatively tilted by then. Both images are for 15z Monday. The positive tilt axis is all the way in Arizona while the frontal storms are ongoing in central Texas. Only meaningful forcing there is due to the cold front. 9 hours later, the original squall significantly weakens and slows. The trough is now roughly neutrally tilted over east NM/west TX. Now you see new development BEHIND the cold front... that's due to the trough axis/jet streak swinging around and adding a new area of forcing. Divergence aloft associated with the jet streak also creates a new area of low pressure. It'll take some time for the airmass behind the squall to recover, but it will. Now you have a low pressure located MUCH closer to the trough. Unfortunately, it's looking like the trough will begin to take a negative tilt in the nighttime. This'll increase shear, forcing, and moisture. That should cause the squall to strengthen throughout the night. It should be a full-on negative tilt by daytime, which raises the concern for warm sector convection. Edited October 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 NWS Wilmington radar will be down until the 28th/29th. Where I live is really in a hole. I hope there's no major threats during this time period!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 The wind is crazy! Dewpoint is currently at 62°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 23, 2022 Man I love strong systems. So much going on. System is far from vertically stacked right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 23, 2022 (edited) So much going on here. Dust in Kansas. Gravity waves in New Mexico. Those in Ohio/Indiana... why is satellite showing so much brown? Only thing I can think of is crops. Edited October 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: So much going on here. Dust in Kansas. Gravity waves in New Mexico. Those in Ohio/Indiana... why is satellite showing so much brown? Only thing I can think of is crops. I think it's showing how parched it is, the Mississippi River is at an all-time low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 23, 2022 Admin Share Posted October 23, 2022 31 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: So much going on here. Dust in Kansas. Gravity waves in New Mexico. Those in Ohio/Indiana... why is satellite showing so much brown? Only thing I can think of is crops. Quite a few wildfires popping up in KS and NE as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 23, 2022 20 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Quite a few wildfires popping up in KS and NE as well Extreme drought and 20-25 winds.... that'll do it. Beautiful dryline ahead of an insane cold front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Severe storms popping up in Nebraska right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 23, 2022 Confirmed tornado 8 mins ago at this frame. Doesn't look like anything but it had visual confirmation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: So much going on here. Dust in Kansas. Gravity waves in New Mexico. Those in Ohio/Indiana... why is satellite showing so much brown? Only thing I can think of is crops. You can see the dirt or smoke on the move in Kansas on the loop. There were two confimed tornadoes in Nebraska, at 5:53PM and 6:04PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 23, 2022 Doesn't take much convection to mix those very strong winds down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now