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October 24-27, 2022 | Winter Storm Northern Plains and Severe Threat Southern Plains


StLweatherjunkie

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  • The title was changed to October 24-27, 2022 | Winter Storm Northern Plains and Severe Threat Southern Plains
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As I've posted about (in the wrong thread), a big limiting factor for this setup is the weak trough over Florida. That's going to cause cyclonic surface flow and mess up the northward moisture flow that's typically associated with a system ejecting from the west.

There'll likely be some severe weather, but not as much/not as significant if that weak trough isn't there.

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17 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

As I've posted about (in the wrong thread), a big limiting factor for this setup is the weak trough over Florida. That's going to cause cyclonic surface flow and mess up the northward moisture flow that's typically associated with a system ejecting from the west.

There'll likely be some severe weather, but not as much/not as significant if that weak trough isn't there.

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I'm not sure I agree. The Northern Oceans are near their seasonal peak temperature so even weak moisture plumes have high dew points. Also, too much moisture shifts a severe threat to a heavy rain threat with too much cloud cover for widespread severe. It will ultimately come down to how the shortwaves eject onto the plains, but IMHO any sort of diffluent SW flow aloft on the Plains cannot be trusted. 

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12z Euro sounding in the warm nose. This is valid at 12z, just imagine what that environment could look like by 00z:

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51 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

If the cap can chill out a bit, whew. Nasty lapse rates above the cap. Crazy hodograph.

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Intense negative tilt. Screams severe weather.

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Someone on a different forum put out a Tweet saying that the West Coast Wildfires are linked to more intense severe weather in the plains.

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10 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Someone on a different forum put out a Tweet saying that the West Coast Wildfires are linked to more intense severe weather in the plains.

I'd say it *can* be linked. If a western trough dips down right, it can create strong winds that obviously exacerbates wildfires. Especially if it's a positively tilted trough, Southern California lights on fire. But wildfires also happen when there's a western ridge and no threat for severe weather east of the Rockies... as we just saw last week. 

The one rule of thumb that I know to be mostly true is, tornadoes in the West -> severe weather east of the Rockies. That makes sense because you need some kind of system/winds aloft for that to happen. You can't get that with a ridge. It happens when the jet stream dips

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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0z GFS has a pretty nasty sounding in central IA. Not nasty in terms of tornado potential verbatim, but in terms of downdraft cape and wind shear. Talking about potential for significant severe winds. 

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Extreme NW Missouri is more of the same. Again, these soundings don't look particularly scary for tornado potential. If the dew point is any higher then I'll be more concerned. For now it looks like a widespread damaging wind event with embedded qlcs tornadoes.

Unlike the central Iowa sounding, this one has a layer of very steep lapse rates above the LCL. That means updrafts will be more robust down there.

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Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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This has been a fun storm to forecast this week. Sunday looks like the real deal for wind and fire here. Looks like the only model not really buying the phase with the cutoff low in the southwest is the ECMWF right now. I think we'll be seeing more of these phases with the semi-permanent southwest cutoff low this winter. Could make things interesting. This particular setup would be an east 1-2' snow storm/blizzard for the Texas Panhandle through Kansas if it were January.

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As the shortwave responsible for Sunday's event produces some severe weather (shortwave axis is over Wyoming/SD/NE), another shortwave is dipping into the Desert Southwest.

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Big caveat here is that this is long-range NAM, so some things--most likely moisture--may be overblown. 

But it does makes sense that there'll be greater moisture because you have another low pressure developing in the vicinity of stronger moisture that was already being drawn north by the first system. 

More instability but less low-level shear, yet still sufficient for strong tornadoes given other conditions present. Still very strong deep-layer speed shear.

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West of Dallas

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Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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Seems like the models are honing in on a threat in Kansas rather than E NE/W IA.

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Area average sounding for south-central KS... that's nasty. There is a slight inversion but, considering this is an area average sounding, there's gonna be some spots where there's sufficiently weak capping. 

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0z NAM for south-central Texas is pretty wild. -6 LI with 65 knots effective shear. Weak low-level shear, so probably some significant hail. 

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Southwest of Dallas. This is a greater overall severe weather/tornado threat. Stronger LI, stronger low-level shear, stronger overall streamwise vorticity, lower LCL.

 

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