junior Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Some good rains and a couple rumbles here. Been a while it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 13, 2022 (edited) Barely got wind 🙃 Power just came back on as I typed that. Was out for about 40 mins. Man, I always complained about how easy power got knocked out back when I lived in West Chester and Dayton but this doesn’t even come close to competing Edit: and now it’s back out Edited October 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michelle Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Is that a hook heading for Xenia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Michelle said: Is that a hook heading for Xenia? There’s some rotation with it but I wouldn’t be concerned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 13, 2022 Author Share Posted October 13, 2022 @ClicheVortex2014, did you take photos or videos of this squall line? I would love to hear the rain and/or lightning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralLA_Wx Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Supercell storm in my area earlier with reports of large hail to my north. I got a few hundredths of an inch of rain (first measurable rain in over a month). Storm complex may come through overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 13, 2022 36 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: @ClicheVortex2014, did you take photos or videos of this squall line? I would love to hear the rain and/or lightning! It was dark so there’s nothing to see… especially once the power went out. Blowing rain was getting the garage wet and we still have stuff in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 13, 2022 Pretty sure power is officially back on. Sad that we were without power for almost 2.5 hours from a sub-severe storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 13, 2022 (edited) For such an obscure/unexciting setup, sure has been a hell of a day. An unexpected local tornado outbreak in Wisconsin A couple discrete tornadic supercells in E KY 3 well-spread out 2" hail reports across the South Very well-defined LEWP across the mid-south And now there's another tornadic supercell in N MS. Impressive trough with an impressive jet streak... but the significant hail reports are in relatively weak flow. Never really expected an early fall event to be forced by a trough diving southeast. Much less forcing severe weather on such a large scale. I hope this isn't a sign of things to come. Though, to be fair, if you just isolate the jet streak without looking at the bigger picture, a jet streak punching into the Lower GL is a pretty classic fall outbreak signature. We're lucky the low is all the way up in Canada and moisture was weak across the OV. We can likely credit that to the trough diving southeast rather than from the west or southwest. Edited October 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Solid supercell in NE MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 13, 2022 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Solid supercell in NE MS I'd say so. My god. Even though it was sub-severe, Dixie Alley is something else Edited October 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 13, 2022 Another squall is getting going. Unlikely to see a long-lived severe threat from this because of the time of day and the fact that the best forcing/shear is moving away from the squall, but it is moving into better moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 14, 2022 10-day EPS is extremely concerning but GEFS is... uhh.. the lowest magnitude of EPS possible. Anyway, late October looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 14, 2022 Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 SPC, please don't fail us this time around. @OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Maybe this time I can get a good storm... I'll take anything I can get after my team likely loses to Kansas at home tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 14, 2022 Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said: Maybe this time I can get a good storm... I'll take anything I can get after my team likely loses to Kansas at home tomorrow... I know, it does seem like that we're having a reset year this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 14, 2022 Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 Upgraded to a Slight Risk, hope that we get storms and not the severe stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 15, 2022 Author Share Posted October 15, 2022 Slight *HATCHED* risk for Very Large hail for Oklahoma and Arkansas today, this is about to get really interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 15, 2022 (edited) 🤯 Damn cut-off trough in the Gulf largely kills severe potential by messing with moisture return. Edited October 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 15, 2022 Mesoscale Discussion 1873 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Areas affected...Eastern OK into central AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151952Z - 152145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible by late this afternoon, and will become more likely by early evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts, and watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Cumulus is increasing this afternoon from eastern OK into central AR, in an area of strong surface heating south of a diffuse stationary front, and along the northern periphery of deeper low-level moisture. The timing and coverage of storm development late this afternoon is somewhat uncertain, due to weak low-level convergence and residual capping. However, isolated development cannot be ruled out late this afternoon, with greater coverage expected by early evening near and north of the boundary as low-level warm advection increases with time. Modest northwesterly midlevel flow is supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt across the region, which will support organized storm development within the moderately unstable (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) environment. Initial development will likely be discrete, and a couple of supercells will be possible with an attendant large hail risk. Relatively large temperature/dewpoint spreads and weak low-level flow/shear across the warm sector will result in a tendency for storms to become outflow dominant, with isolated strong/damaging gusts possible. In order to address these threats, watch issuance is possible once robust storm initiation appears imminent across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 15, 2022 Author Share Posted October 15, 2022 38 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Mesoscale Discussion 1873 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Areas affected...Eastern OK into central AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151952Z - 152145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible by late this afternoon, and will become more likely by early evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts, and watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Cumulus is increasing this afternoon from eastern OK into central AR, in an area of strong surface heating south of a diffuse stationary front, and along the northern periphery of deeper low-level moisture. The timing and coverage of storm development late this afternoon is somewhat uncertain, due to weak low-level convergence and residual capping. However, isolated development cannot be ruled out late this afternoon, with greater coverage expected by early evening near and north of the boundary as low-level warm advection increases with time. Modest northwesterly midlevel flow is supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt across the region, which will support organized storm development within the moderately unstable (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) environment. Initial development will likely be discrete, and a couple of supercells will be possible with an attendant large hail risk. Relatively large temperature/dewpoint spreads and weak low-level flow/shear across the warm sector will result in a tendency for storms to become outflow dominant, with isolated strong/damaging gusts possible. In order to address these threats, watch issuance is possible once robust storm initiation appears imminent across the region. Watch up for Eastern Oklahoma and Central Oklahoma, basically along I-40 from Okemah, OK to Memphis, TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 15, 2022 (edited) Supercell day without tornadoes. Very weak low-level shear, high LCLs. Edited October 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 15, 2022 (edited) Discrete supercell with the 'flying eagle' FFD signature SW of Little Rock. Never too late in the season I guess. Edited October 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 15, 2022 Insane monsoon season. Record breaking monsoon season for at least half of New Mexico. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 15, 2022 Mesoscale Discussion 1874 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Areas affected...Western and Central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152201Z - 160000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered convection, some severe, is expected to increase across western and central Oklahoma this evening. Damaging wind and hail are the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Very weak disturbance appears to be ejecting east across the TX Panhandle late this afternoon. This feature is expected to aid convective development along a front draped from south of TUL-north of OKC-south of GAG over the next several hours. Convective temperatures have been breached along this wind shift and latest satellite imagery depicts deepening cumulus, a few of which may soon glaciate. While low-level flow is not particularly strong, this front will serve as the focus for robust thunderstorms that are expected to grow upscale into one or more clusters as they propagate southeast. Forecast soundings suggest wind may be the greatest risk, though hail is also possible, especially with early supercell structures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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