Iceresistance Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Oh jeez! Special Advisory products have been issued. Use links below for details. ...ORLENE IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... 6:00 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 Location: 18.2°N 107.1°W Moving: N at 6 mph Min pressure: 970 mb Max sustained: 105 mph The satellite presentation of Orlene has quickly improved during the past several hours. A warm and well-defined eye has emerged in GOES-17 satellite imagery, surrounded by a solid ring of deep convection with infrared cloud tops colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The initial intensity is set at 90 kt for this advisory based on recent satellite intensity estimates. Based on the higher initial intensity, the near-term intensity forecast has been raised to show additional strengthening in the next 12-24 h while environmental conditions remain conducive for intensification. No changes were made to the track forecast with this special advisory. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of west-central mainland Mexico starting on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico in the tropical storm watch area tonight or Sunday. 2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of southwest Mexico into Monday evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.6N 107.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 22.1N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 23.1N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1800Z 24.1N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart There were brief storms named Lester, Madine, and Newton before Orlene showed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 WOW! Category 4 already! O_O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 Back down to a 3, Recon is on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 Recon has found nearly 100 knots SMFR, but the strongest quadrant has not been sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 3, 2022 Author Share Posted October 3, 2022 (edited) Down to a 2, that was quick. Edited October 3, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 3, 2022 Author Share Posted October 3, 2022 Landfall confirmed in Mexico. Hurricane Orlene Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 745 AM MDT Mon Oct 02 2022 ...ORLENE MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... Satellite imagery indicates that Orlene has made landfall in southwest Mexico just north of the Nayarit and Sinaloa border around 745 AM MDT (1345 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 85 mph (140 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated at 980 mb (28.94 inches). An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of Nayarit has recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 81 mph (130 km/h). SUMMARY OF 745 AM MDT...1345 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 105.9W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 3, 2022 Author Share Posted October 3, 2022 And, before you can check on it fast enough, he is already vanishing from the face of the earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 4, 2022 Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 Where is Orlene? I can't find him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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