Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[1816]

1 minute ago, Uscg Ast said:

Colder cloud tops. The cloud tops are therefore higher. So what it is essentially saying is that the storms around the eyewalls are towering. 

 

Also - this model has a drug problem. Been in rehab many times. Still goes back. Just saying. 

I imagine the hurricane hunters see something like what this model shows and say fuck it let's go home. I'm gonna go fly for united. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

FV3 landfall near Sarasota:

 

[Sentinel]

Just now, 1816 said:

I imagine the hurricane hunters see something like what this model shows and say fuck it let's go home. I'm gonna go fly for united. 

 

[Burr]

[StretchCT]

11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 26
Location: 19.1°N 82.7°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

INIT  26/1500Z 19.1N  82.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 20.7N  83.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 22.7N  84.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 24.5N  84.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 26.1N  83.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 27.2N  83.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 28.0N  83.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 29.8N  82.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/1200Z 32.8N  82.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 

Disco highlights:  eyewall still banded.  Min pressure 980 per drop. Ian increased 30kts in 18hrs. Further RI is expected. Slower motion forecast prolongs rain, wind and surge. 

Spoiler

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this morning. Deep 
convection has increased within the inner core during the past 
several hours, with an expanding central dense overcast noted in 
recent satellite imagery. The inner core structure continues to take 
shape in radar data, although the eyewall still has a banded 
appearance and remains open on the west side. Dropsonde data from 
the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
minimum pressure has gradually fallen to about 980 mb, and the 
initial intensity is raised slightly to 70 kt for this advisory. 

The intensity of Ian has increased by 30 kt during the past 18 h. 
Further rapid intensification (RI) is expected during the next 24-36 
h as Ian crosses the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea within a very low vertical wind shear (VWS) 
environment. The latest SHIPS-RI probabilities continue to highlight 
the high likelihood of this scenario, with a 73 percent chance of a 
35-kt wind speed increase in 24 h and a 79 percent chance of a 45-kt 
increase in 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous one, and it shows Ian becoming a major hurricane by the 
time it reaches western Cuba. Ian is forecast to reach its peak 
intensity in 36 h over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Then, 
increasing southwesterly shear by 36-48 h is expected to bring an 
end to the intensification phase. The combination of strong VWS and 
drier mid-level air will induce weakening thereafter, but Ian is 
expected to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes 
near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.

Ian continues to move northwestward at 325/11 kt. A turn toward the 
north-northwest and north is expected during the next day or so as 
the hurricane moves around the western extent of a mid-level ridge. 
Then, an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause Ian 
to turn more north-northeastward through Thursday. This track brings 
the center of Ian close to the west-central coast of Florida during 
the middle of the week. An even greater concern is the slower 
forward motion that is forecast during this period, as the upper 
trough passes north and east of Ian and the steering currents 
weaken. This would likely prolong the storm surge, wind, and 
rainfall impacts along the affected portions of the west coast of 
Florida, although the roughly shore-parallel track still makes it 
difficult to pinpoint exactly what locations will experience the 
most severe impacts. The track guidance has come into better 
agreement during the first 72 h of the forecast period, and only a 
minor eastward adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast in line 
with the multi-model consensus aids.

The aircraft data indicate that the 34-kt wind radii in the 
northeastern quadrant were 20-30 n mi larger than previously 
estimated, and this has been reflected in the latest forecast. 
Based on these changes, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for 
the middle Florida Keys and extended southward along the 
southwestern coast of Florida.

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by StretchCT

[Burr]

BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...

INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.1N 82.7W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB... 28.94 INCHES

 

[clm]

9 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Colder cloud tops. The cloud tops are therefore higher. So what it is essentially saying is that the storms around the eyewalls are towering. 

 

Also - this model has a drug problem. Been in rehab many times. Still goes back. Just saying. 

So does that towering help strengthen the eye?  Does it also help feed the storm in terms of wind and/or rain? 

[Tater]

24 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

12z 3km NAM:

 

17 minutes ago, Grace said:

3km never disappoints 😆 

 

10 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Also - this model has a drug problem. Been in rehab many times. Still goes back. Just saying. 

"In NAM we trust."     - Random weather weenies trying to make fetch happen.

[StretchCT]

Hurricane models still not completely sold on Tampa.  Consensus track still hits eastern panhandle/big bend

[FortySixAnd32]

4 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Hurricane models still not completely sold on Tampa.  Consensus track still hits eastern panhandle/big bend

That's a lot of spaghetti....

[MesoscaleBanding]

12z GFS

 

[TLChip]

Wow NAM giving out hurricane season NAMBINOs 🤥

Edited September 26, 2022 by TLChip

[1816]

That is one humongous storm. Impacting the entire state of Florida not to mention Georgia and the carolinas like that all at once is no small feat. 

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, 1816 said:

That is one humongous storm. Impacting the entire state of Florida not to mention Georgia and the carolinas like that all at once is no small feat. 

Not just that, it stalls near Tampa, which dumps a HUGE amount of rainfall and storm surge. 

[StretchCT]

 

[StretchCT]

Winds not terribly strong, just run of the mill Cat1 or 2. 75kt was highest I found over land (87kts over water) and gusts weren't that much higher, which is sus.

Rainfall looks manageable except for one area. I mean areas in the NE have been getting storms with 8" of rain in a half day, so other than the Dunnellon area, this should be manageable. 

I also think this is very suspect. All the rain is on the west side.  That's more typical of storms in the NE. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

Watching this one very closely - my parents just purchased a retirement property on the coast in the Bradenton/Anna Maria Island area. They are getting pretty nervous as they won't be down there before or during this storm to prep their property for potential storm impacts. 

[NWOhioChaser]

19 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

 

Was going to say...looking at satellite, it looks like we may have an eye soon.

[StretchCT]

Radar Click here\

 

Or go to https://www.weather.gov.ky/

Edited September 26, 2022 by StretchCT

[Columbusbuckeye]

27 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Watching this one very closely - my parents just purchased a retirement property on the coast in the Bradenton/Anna Maria Island area. They are getting pretty nervous as they won't be down there before or during this storm to prep their property for potential storm impacts. 

That stinks man, hopefully it spares them!

[StretchCT]

Wish they had an automatic gif maker... I gotta screenshot it, render it down to a decent size gif to upload. 

 

[TLChip]

13 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Wish they had an automatic gif maker... I gotta screenshot it, render it down to a decent size gif to upload. 

 

I use ShareX for screenshots, it can capture regions and screen recording to make a gif as well. Screenshots are easy on it the gif is cumbersome sometimes. 
 

I don’t know much about Florida's flooding but just visiting family (outside of Tampa) here and there I’ve seen thunderstorms flood some roads for the afternoon. Can they really handle 6” of widespread rain?  

Edited September 26, 2022 by TLChip

[StretchCT]

U Albany has a couple of nice tools. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

Edited September 26, 2022 by StretchCT

[Tater]

2 hours ago, clm said:

So does that towering help strengthen the eye?  Does it also help feed the storm in terms of wind and/or rain? 

I think it's more of effect than a cause. That towering is an indication that certain conditions beneficial to storm development are present. Likewise, a lack of towering shows you that something is missing or interfering.

 

Edit: page topper.

Me pretending I know anything about hurricanes. Go ahead and point and laugh and show everyone my mistakes. 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Tater

[Burr]

BULLETIN

Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 14A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022

200 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...

INFORMATION

----------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.7N 83.0W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH... 135 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB... 28.82 INCHES

Edited September 26, 2022 by Burr