Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[MaineJay]

The west side of Cuba isn't as mountainous as the east end, but there are still peaks that are 1,500' or more. While not towering, they would be sufficient to disrupt surface circulation.

[MaineJay]

Admittedly, I'm not learned in reading these phase diagrams, but I think it shows how the GFS keeps this as a true tropical entity the longest.

I read this as the Ukie introducing a frontal system of the continent much more aggressively, transitioning it somewhat.

The ECMWF continues to be about the middle ground, but probably a little closer to the GFS.

Waters west of Florida into the strait are steamy. Last 5 days of this are a forecast, you can see what Ian is projected to to as it moves through.

[Hiramite]

[MaineJay]

Cooking with fire now.

ADT should really rise now, though constraints might go on.

[Iceresistance]

Well that escalated quickly. 

[Harberr62]

Pretty quiet in here. Must be waiting for it to get into the Gulf. 

[MaineJay]

Looks almost like it's heading due north, no way it avoids Cuba. Hopefully it trips it up.

[NWOhioChaser]

5 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Looks almost like it's heading due north, no way it avoids Cuba. Hopefully it trips it up.

Definitely going to hinder it's strengthening. 

[TLChip]

$5 donation if it reaches cat 3 before midnight EST 

[Iceresistance]

12 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Looks almost like it's heading due north, no way it avoids Cuba. Hopefully it trips it up.

It did with Ida, except it caused extremely powerful convection at landfall. 

[TLChip]

19 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Looks almost like it's heading due north, no way it avoids Cuba. Hopefully it trips it up.

Cubas rooting for CONUS to take one on the chin for once. 🤣

[Psu1313]

4 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Definitely going to hinder it's strengthening. 

Not necessarily. Although possible, we're talking about a CoC that will be over the mountains for what, 6 hours? We've seen with recent hurricanes that this piece of land does not always hinder the storm, especially when the environment remains favorable. With Ian getting himself organized, I'm looking at Cuba as no more than a speed bump. 

The real challenge is when he starts to interact with the cold front. He's going to slow, but the questions are how strong will he be? How close to the coast will he be or will he even be on land? What happens when the storm starts to push moisture into the entire southeast? We're talking about a widespread 3+ inches across most of the southeastern states. 

[Cincysnow]

46 minutes ago, TLChip said:

$5 donation if it reaches cat 3 before midnight EST 

I’ll match it. 

[1816]

1 hour ago, Psu1313 said:

Not necessarily. Although possible, we're talking about a CoC that will be over the mountains for what, 6 hours? We've seen with recent hurricanes that this piece of land does not always hinder the storm, especially when the environment remains favorable. With Ian getting himself organized, I'm looking at Cuba as no more than a speed bump. 

The real challenge is when he starts to interact with the cold front. He's going to slow, but the questions are how strong will he be? How close to the coast will he be or will he even be on land? What happens when the storm starts to push moisture into the entire southeast? We're talking about a widespread 3+ inches across most of the southeastern states. 

A lot of the tracks I'm seeing are over the very western tip of the island. If it tracks far enough west it may passover that peninsula on the western edge of the island and miss those hills altogether. 

[clm]

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by clm
Not awake yet

[1816]

The sheer amount of heat and water this thing is already moving is incredible. We always talk about how hurricanes are engines of a sort. This one is like the engine that powers a huge ship or something. It might be taking a while to get it cranked up and warmed up but the power output looks to be off the charts. 

[DJKuo]

6z HMON showing a rather unfortunate landfall in Tampa area. Would be the "optimal"/bad approach angle for maximum storm surge.

[1816]

I think we are gonna see one hell of a beautiful eye clearing out here shortly. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

12z 3km NAM:

 

[Grace]

3 hours ago, Harberr62 said:

Pretty quiet in here. Must be waiting for it to get into the Gulf. 

 

 Everybody's too busy arguing on Twitter about political crap to have time for forums anymore. 😆 

[Grace]

6 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

12z 3km NAM:

 

3km never disappoints 😆 

[clm]

9 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

12z 3km NAM:

 

 

So i'm trying to figure out what the IR Brightness is measuring and what it means.  I see it is in Celsius and it appears its warmer further you get away from the eye and much colder as you approach the eye.  But what does this tell us about the storm itself?

[Sentinel]

2 minutes ago, clm said:

 

So i'm trying to figure out what the IR Brightness is measuring and what it means.  I see it is in Celsius and it appears its warmer further you get away from the eye and much colder as you approach the eye.  But what does this tell us about the storm itself?

Colder cloud tops. The cloud tops are therefore higher. So what it is essentially saying is that the storms around the eyewalls are towering. 

 

Also - this model has a drug problem. Been in rehab many times. Still goes back. Just saying. 

[Psu1313]

2 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

 Everybody's too busy arguing on Twitter about political crap to have time for forums anymore. 😆 

Haha. We have to remember that this is a new forum and we've been split in half. There are some good posters over at WxDisco still, even if PM is a bit bipolar. 

Looking back at Ian, there really is no good outcome here, but the best outcome is that he stays 200+ miles off shore and comes ashore on the western edge of the current cone. With this, he will interact with the cold front and hopefully lose a lot of punch before landfall, and hopefully less water would be pushed into the Western coast of Florida. Closer to the coast and you're pushing a ton of water into TB, and onshore early, potentially you would have a major hurricane landfalling in Florida. 

[Sentinel]

2 hours ago, Cincysnow said:

I’ll match it. 

 

3 hours ago, TLChip said:

$5 donation if it reaches cat 3 before midnight EST