Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 25, 2022 I feel like this is the most impressive burst since last night 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 25, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I feel like this is the most impressive burst since last night I believe you can see that burst on the most recent microwave scan, just a wee half hour old. There does appear to be the semblance of a nascent convective ring, with that aforementioned burst on the NW corner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 26, 2022 Author Share Posted September 26, 2022 Now up to 60 mph and 991 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 26, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 26, 2022 Regardless of strength, Ian is poised to dump some rain. GFS is the strongest and furthest west. The Ukie is weakest, and furthest east. I'm interpreting this as meaning the Ukie is introducing westerly shear quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Popular Post MaineJay Posted September 26, 2022 Admin Popular Post Share Posted September 26, 2022 I know I shouldn't post this, but I can't help myself. Cat 10 on the NAM3. 🙄 1 1 1 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 37 minutes ago, MaineJay said: I know I shouldn't post this, but I can't help myself. Cat 10 on the NAM3. 🙄 What? That's just a tropical tornado man. Its the new stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 26, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: I know I shouldn't post this, but I can't help myself. Cat 10 on the NAM3. 🙄 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 26, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I feel like this is the most impressive burst since last night 💯 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 Maybe it's a bit of confirmation bias but it looks like the deep convection is starting to rotate a bit around the CoC. Would be the first time in this TC's life and it... will be the last. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 21 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Maybe it's a bit of confirmation bias but it looks like the deep convection is starting to rotate a bit around the CoC. Would be the first time in this TC's life and it... will be the last. I agree but it's also possible confirmation bias on my part. It's reassuring to see centralized convection tonight vs last night's sad attempt. I have a feeling I'll actually have a lot to contribute tonight (or not who knows) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 Microwave supports Recon's partial eyewall and rapid intensification is well on it's way. Even though the storm looked pitiful earlier, that whole time it was setting up near perfect banding while stacking itself. Could be the storm that Tampa has feared the last 100 years. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 A full perspective of the storm. This thing is going to be huge. Feeder bands reaching from South America pulling in Amazon moisture and outflow all the way to the Bahamas 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Microwave supports Recon's partial eyewall and rapid intensification is well on it's way. Even though the storm looked pitiful earlier, that whole time it was setting up near perfect banding while stacking itself. Could be the storm that Tampa has feared the last 100 years. I remember I watched a show on TWC years ago, something like disasters waiting to happen... they talked about the threat of a hurricane producing a massive storm surge for Tampa Bay. If this storm stalls west of the city like has been suggested, even if it's weakening, I'd imagine storm surge would be massively damaging. Hopefully that stalling-out doesn't happen because that cyclonic flow around it would be ideal for big time storm surge. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 Another view of just how big this storm is. Pulling moisture from 2 basins and the Amazon. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 Yeah we're not seeing things. This is escalating real quick 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 I like to call this phase of TC development where rotating hot towers develop the awakening of the Sharingan. Those of you familiar with Naruto know what that is. In this case we have a 2 tomoe Sharingan (ignore that it spins the wrong way lol). 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 26, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 26, 2022 18 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Yeah we're not seeing things. This is escalating real quick That outflow right now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 7 hours between the two images here. Really impressive intensification 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 26, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 26, 2022 Off topic, but just got back from Sound on Sound. Dave was cut short due to lightning and they evacuated us. It was pretty intense. Found this footage 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Off topic, but just got back from Sound on Sound. Dave was cut short due to lightning and they evacuated us. It was pretty intense. Found this footage Incredible footage of a lightning strike 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 5 hours ago, Ingyball said: Another view of just how big this storm is. Pulling moisture from 2 basins and the Amazon. Look at that cold air screaming out of Canada!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I remember I watched a show on TWC years ago, something like disasters waiting to happen... they talked about the threat of a hurricane producing a massive storm surge for Tampa Bay. If this storm stalls west of the city like has been suggested, even if it's weakening, I'd imagine storm surge would be massively damaging. Hopefully that stalling-out doesn't happen because that cyclonic flow around it would be ideal for big time storm surge. Did it have something to do with how shallow the water is off the west coast of FL? I'm pretty sure it's ridiculously shallow around there. I imagine that makes it easier to pile up the surge. I still have a bad feeling about this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 6 hours ago, Ingyball said: Another view of just how big this storm is. Pulling moisture from 2 basins and the Amazon. Holy crap its pulling out of the pacific across Panama. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Hurricane now. Quote BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 ...IAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AND ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS IN WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 82.0W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the west coast of Florida from north of Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the west coast of Florida to the Anclote River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas * Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West * Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay * Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge, * Tampa Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Englewood southward to Chokoloskee A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. Additional watches may be need later today farther north along the west coast of Florida. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 82.0 West. Ian is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected today followed by a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Tuesday night or early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today, and near or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight when it is near western Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... *Anclote River to Englewood, FL including Tampa Bay... 5-8 ft *Englewood to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor... 4-7 ft *Bonita Beach to East Cape Sable, FL... 3-5 ft *East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay... 2-4 ft *Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas... 2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night and early Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected on Grand Cayman today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the Florida west coast by Tuesday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible along the Florida West coast within the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday: Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches. Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches. Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches. Central West Florida: 8 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 15 inches. Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches. Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, and portions of the Southeast, and Mid Atlantic regions Friday and Saturday. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. Considerable flooding impacts are possible mid-to-late week in central Florida given already saturated antecedent conditions, and flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid week. Limited flood impacts and rises on area streams and rivers are possible over northern Florida and portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late Monday night and Tuesday across the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today and tonight. Swell are expected to begin affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Roberts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 26, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 26, 2022 Good convection firing around the center again. I still get the sense that downsloping off the Nicaraguan mountains is injecting some "dry-ish" air into the circulation. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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