Poco Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 (edited) Hafs v.35 ran at 12 z today and it cranked out a big one that split the yuca and cuba straight in the 930s Take with a grain of salt but there is no shortage of gasoline to throw in this one. Best case scenario would be a quick landfall, if it stals or takes it time anywhere near western cuba it will be in conditiks consistent with ri Edited September 25, 2022 by Poco 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 (edited) here is some Diurnal strethening stuff and cyclone alignment , available on cimms here is latest mimic if you look closely at last frame you can make out a feint eye wall structure firstly we need convection to wrap around and form a solid eyewall type structure. We are not quite there yet. Here is adjT* and Current intensity plot. Normally a spike in intensity lags the adjT a bit. AdjT this will start heading upwards too from the potent diurnal boost I think we are seeing an eye wall forming in the next several hours and the raw T will rise as cloud tops cool and we will see RI as we are over extremely potent heat content. Hang on Edited September 25, 2022 by Poco 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 35 minutes ago, Poco said: 0z hurricane models continue diwn the western edge of cone into pan handle area 0z intensity is growing scarier huge cluster at ca4 / low end 5 before landfall. im not a big sound the alarm type of guy but this is headed in all the wrong directions as trends we’d like to see go. So maybe sounan alarm or too just so people at least prepare in the cone. I think if I lived anywhere on the west coast of Florida, say Tampa to Pensacola, I'd spend this weekend gathering a carload of my most valuables and getting insurance papers together. Then take a road trip to Memphis or somewhere later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 (edited) BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 ... IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC... INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 77.7W ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH... 85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB... 29.59 INCHES Edited September 25, 2022 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 (edited) Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Spoiler A NOAA G-IV Hurricane Hunter jet flew a surveillance around and across Ian at high altitude earlier this evening and dropped several dropsondes near the estimated center. The surface winds from the instruments suggested that Ian had an elongated surface circulation from northwest to southeast, but one dropsonde in particular had a lower pressure than the others, which helped to located the center. Some new convection has been forming near this location recently, which provides a little more confidence in the estimate. The minimum pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, a consensus of satellite intensity estimates suggests that the maximum winds are now near 45 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Ian expected to curve around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge through the 5-day forecast period. There has also been little change in the individual model solutions--the ECMWF remains on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and the GFS remains on the western side. Since there has been no significant change in the guidance, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one through day 3, although it has been nudged slightly westward (again) on days 4 and 5 over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the direction of the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Ian is now in an environment of low shear and high atmospheric moisture and over waters of high ocean heat content. Once the circulation becomes vertically stacked, which should be soon, these conditions favor rapid intensification (RI) while Ian moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Several RI indices support this scenario, with the Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) in particular showing a greater than 90 percent chance of RI during the ensuing 48- and 72-hour forecast periods. The NHC official forecast explicitly shows RI beginning on Sunday, with Ian predicted to peak at category 4 intensity over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in about 3 days. By days 4 and 5, global models are leaning toward a scenario where Ian enters into an environment of very strong southwesterly shear, and weakening is therefore expected while Ian approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle. That said, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts despite any potential weakening. Users are urged to not focus on specific forecast intensities in the 4- and 5-day forecasts and instead focus on the potential hazards Ian may produce across portions of Florida. Edited September 25, 2022 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 25, 2022 (edited) New max is up to 140 mph. Thankfully there's significant weakening prior to landfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 14.7N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.6N 81.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 18.3N 82.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WEST TIP OF CUBA 72H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.9W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 29/0000Z 27.2N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 29.6N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH Edited September 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 25, 2022 NHC bumped max to 140 mph. also the disco mentioned rapid intensification, specifically the Dtops being over 90% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted September 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 25, 2022 (edited) I haven't had much to update overnight as Ian is struggling to get convection wrapped around it's core. If it could just tighten up it's circulation ... 🙃 Edited September 25, 2022 by MidwestWX Added 5am update 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 (edited) Something tells me Ian is going to get his act together today. Looking alright this morning. Edited September 25, 2022 by NWOhioChaser 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Lost some intensity over night but maybe today while it’s over a more conducive area of strengthening will it take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 25, 2022 Seems to be improving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 25, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 25, 2022 I wouldn't be surprised if Ian was pulling in some, relatively speaking, drier air. You have flow descending the mountains of Nicaragua, these aren't the highest mountains, but I believe some peaks are over a mile high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 33 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Seems to be improving It's definitely starting to get its spin on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 25, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 25, 2022 It is pretty lacking in convection 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 37 minutes ago, MaineJay said: It is pretty lacking in convection Maybe once it starts turning more NW, it will help cut off any dry air from Central America as you alluded to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 25, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 25, 2022 2 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said: Maybe once it starts turning more NW, it will help cut off any dry air from Central America as you alluded to? I'm largely speculating that's the reason for the rather sparse convection and limited (at best) CDO. The center looks well defined here, but the rub is, you can see the center. https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80 Everything seems primed for development, but something seems to be hindering it somewhat. Happy to see it limp along as long as possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 (edited) NHC not budging from their thoughts that Ian will hit western Cuba. Those mountains will do a number if it if so. Edited September 25, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Def a quirky one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 hour ago, NWOhioChaser said: NHC not budging from their thoughts that Ian will hit western Cuba. Those mountains will do a number if it if so. Pretty sure that's the flat part of Cuba. Mountains are out east of there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 25, 2022 Author Share Posted September 25, 2022 Convective burst near the CoC, I think it may be the one that starts it all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Ready.....go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 25, 2022 Author Share Posted September 25, 2022 Recon, WOW! 989 extrapolated, 55 knots SMFR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 54 minutes ago, TLChip said: Ready.....go? Best it's looked all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 25, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 25, 2022 Ukie has been pretty consistent keeping this storm in the 990s on it's Florida approach. I also believe the NW Caribbean is where the GFS is too eager to develop TCs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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