Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[Iceresistance]

9 hours ago, Tater said:

Snow posts in the tropical section? What's this world coming to?! 

Zeta 2020 and Sandy 2012 was the other cases as well. 

[StretchCT]

[Sentinel]

Facing a Dire Storm Forecast in Florida, Officials Delayed Evacuation https://nyti.ms/3SKlqzP

"But while officials along much of that coastline responded with orders to evacuate on Monday, emergency managers in Lee County held off, pondering during the day whether to tell people to flee, but then deciding to see how the forecast evolved overnight."

This is pretty damming if its the whole story

[Burr]

[StretchCT]

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

 

[Iceresistance]

The situation is getting really bad, the death toll is now up to 52 in Florida. 😞

[Tater]

3 hours ago, Uscg Ast said:

Facing a Dire Storm Forecast in Florida, Officials Delayed Evacuation https://nyti.ms/3SKlqzP

"But while officials along much of that coastline responded with orders to evacuate on Monday, emergency managers in Lee County held off, pondering during the day whether to tell people to flee, but then deciding to see how the forecast evolved overnight."

This is pretty damming if its the whole story

How are evacuation orders handled? Are there various levels, going from digital notifications warning a storm is possible on the way all the way up to door-to-door mandatory evacuations? Or is it more all-or-nothing?

If it's the former and Lee County gave some warning while waiting to order a mandatory evacuation, then I have no problem with it. However, if the first notification they gave was a last minute order, that seems like a poor system.

[Iceresistance]

15 minutes ago, Tater said:

How are evacuation orders handled? Are there various levels, going from digital notifications warning a storm is possible on the way all the way up to door-to-door mandatory evacuations? Or is it more all-or-nothing?

If it's the former and Lee County gave some warning while waiting to order a mandatory evacuation, then I have no problem with it. However, if the first notification they gave was a last minute order, that seems like a poor system.

It was delayed because they expected Ian to be further north, but Ian was deviating further to the east compared to the track. Which may have caught them by surprise. Something like this should have never happened. Yet, the deviation was within the NHC cone. 

Edited October 1, 2022 by Iceresistance

[StretchCT]

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Sediment supercell. Deep ocean wedge tornado

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

When I first saw pictures of the before and afters of this bridge I refused to believe it's legit.

It's just so surreal.

 

[1816]

19 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

When I first saw pictures of the before and afters of this bridge I refused to believe it's legit.

It's just so surreal.

 

I thought it was bridge over water that was gone. Looks like the actual island/sandbar is gone. Holy crap. 

Edited October 1, 2022 by 1816

[ClicheVortex2014]

8 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I thought it was bridge over water that was gone. Looks like the actual island/sandbar is gone. Holy crap. 

Curious how much it's going to cost to rebuild that. They can make-do without the sand bar but they'd have to build a bridge for that section. 

Even more curious how much it's going to cost to fix that highway that suffered pavement scouring. I believe that's this road... but that scouring was very extensive.

[Iceresistance]

We're likely going to face over 100 deaths from Ian in Florida. 😞

[Iceresistance]

20 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Curious how much it's going to cost to rebuild that. They can make-do without the sand bar but they'd have to build a bridge for that section. 

Even more curious how much it's going to cost to fix that highway that suffered pavement scouring. I believe that's this road... but that scouring was very extensive.

I'm sure they can outsource the sand and rebuild, but this scar would remain forever, just like the nasty 2011 Tornadoes (Smithville, NW Alabama, Tuscaloosa-Birmingham, and Cordova in April, and El Reno and Joplin in May)

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just now, Iceresistance said:

I'm sure they can outsource the sand and rebuild, but this scar would remain forever, just like the nasty 2011 Tornadoes (Smithville, NW Alabama, Tuscaloosa-Birmingham, and Cordova in April, and El Reno and Joplin in May)

I'd imagine building a sandbar would cost a whole bunch of money, depending on the depth of the eliminated sand bar.

That said, I have no idea how they build sand bars. But I'm just thinking the taking and transporting of sand would cost a whole bunch of money. 

Gotta keep in mind that this causeway is the only way in or out of Sanibel resort, so this is exceptionally crucial for business and those that live on the resort (if they do?)

[ClicheVortex2014]

22 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

We're likely going to face over 100 deaths from Ian in Florida. 😞

I've been hearing for days it'll be in the 'hundreds'. I've followed tornadoes long enough to know how much initial reports are overestimated. That said, per sources referenced on Wikipedia, Florida's up to 65 confirmed deaths. Sorry to be grim, but there's gonna be a lot of people that will never be found. At least 100 sounds pretty likely at this point unfortunately.

Edited October 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I've been hearing for days it'll be in the 'hundreds'. I've followed tornadoes long enough to know how much initial reports are overestimated. That said, per sources referenced on Wikipedia, Florida's up to 65 confirmed deaths. Sorry to be gri, but there's gonna be a considerable number that will never be found. At least 100 sounds pretty likely at this point unfortunately.

That is what happened in Puerto Rico, most still missing after Maria, and the death toll is over 1,000

[TLChip]

Some updated satellite imagery

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/ian/index.html#9/27.1117/-82.0967

 

[1816]

25 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I'd imagine building a sandbar would cost a whole bunch of money, depending on the depth of the eliminated sand bar.

That said, I have no idea how they build sand bars. But I'm just thinking the taking and transporting of sand would cost a whole bunch of money. 

Gotta keep in mind that this causeway is the only way in or out of Sanibel resort, so this is exceptionally crucial for business and those that live on the resort (if they do?)

I'm not an engineer or anything but I think they will just use pillars and make a bridge over that section. That's got to be more cost effective than the sandbar thing. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I'm not an engineer or anything but I think they will just use pillars and make a bridge over that section. That's got to be more cost effective than the sandbar thing. 

That's what I was thinking they'd do if they didn't build a sandbar. But my uncertainty was what's involved in building a sandbar. It's more than just dumping sand into the area. Maybe some kind of cage to temporarily block the current/waves from carrying away the sand until they dump enough? Anyway, not that important. None of our jobs.

Edited October 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[1816]

The biggest thing with this causeway problem is how do you get supplies back and forth. How do people freely travel. How can they rebuild. I know this is 2022 but I feel like if this had happened 50 or 60 years ago they would have seriously considered just abandoning it. It's gotta take months to repair the road. Hell the simplest road construction in my city can take months and years and its way easier than rebuilding causeway. 

[Tater]

18 minutes ago, 1816 said:

The biggest thing with this causeway problem is how do you get supplies back and forth. How do people freely travel. How can they rebuild. I know this is 2022 but I feel like if this had happened 50 or 60 years ago they would have seriously considered just abandoning it. It's gotta take months to repair the road. Hell the simplest road construction in my city can take months and years and its way easier than rebuilding causeway. 

Well, they do one advantage: they don't have to leave ways for regular traffic to get through. 

Edited October 1, 2022 by Tater

[Tater]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

It was delayed because they expected Ian to be further north, but Ian was deviating further to the east compared to the track. Which may have caught them by surprise. Something like this should have never happened. Yet, the deviation was within the NHC cone. 

My point was that people should take some personal responsibility and not rely on government officials for everything. Just because the government hasn't explicitly ordered an evacuation doesn't mean you can't leave anyway.

However, some folks may have had no idea the storm was coming. Seems to me that the government warning system should warn folks of potential issues also rather than just being used for official evacuation orders (and maybe it was, but that's something I'm not sure about).