Psu1313 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 3 hours ago, Tater said: On one hand, losing any lives with the info we have available seems ridiculous. OTOH, considering the tens of thousands in the path of this storm, maybe it's not so bad. When you factor in that there will always be those who want to take outsized chances for a thrill, plus that Florida likely skews a bit more "independent" (read "distrusts authority") than many places, perhaps this is a reasonable number. You can never save everyone. Of course, perhaps if we rated storms based on storm surge and stressed the danger of it more, a few more folks might recognize the danger. But then again, maybe not. How would you have rated storm surge when Ian left Cuba? The problem is that everything in a hurricane is a moving target and, although we are all looking for the right answer to the nth decimal, there just is no perfect system because nature is going to do what nature wants to do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted September 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 30, 2022 45 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: How would you have rated storm surge when Ian left Cuba? The problem is that everything in a hurricane is a moving target and, although we are all looking for the right answer to the nth decimal, there just is no perfect system because nature is going to do what nature wants to do. Obviously it would have to rely on modeled storm surge, which introduces all kinds of issues. If these folks knew that they could face a Dorian-style situation where they'd be battered by a Cat 5 storm for 30+ hours, would they have reacted any differently than for Ian? Likely a few would have moved out of harm's way, but some would have stayed no matter what. Not only are we trying to predict Mother Nature, we're trying to work with the most cantankerous of human nature. Some battles cannot be won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Well I guess this hurricane is making its way toward VA. Tropical storm warnings were up earlier within a few hours drive. In other news, just turned the heat on for the first time this year. If we can get a repeat of this tropical moisture over top of the cad here about mid December it would probably make some people happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 One of the Southernmost Post-Tropical transitions I've ever seen for September standards. Discussion is in the spoiler. ...IAN BECOMES POST-TROPICAL BUT THE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WIND THREAT CONTINUES... 5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 Location: 33.9°N 79.2°W Moving: N at 15 mph Min pressure: 982 mb Max sustained: 70 mph Spoiler Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Deep convection has ceased now that Ian has lost its energy source from the Atlantic Ocean, and the circulation has wrapped into cooler surface air. Thus, Ian has transitioned into an extratropical low. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt based on elevated hurricane-force winds still being observed on radar offshore of eastern South Carolina. Ian continues to move faster to the north, around 13 kt, and should turn to the north-northwest later today due to a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States. Ian should rapidly weaken in the cool airmass and dissipate by early Sunday over western North Carolina or Virginia. No significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecast. It should be emphasized that just because Ian has become a post-tropical cyclone that the danger is not over. Dangerous storm surge, flash flooding and high winds are still in the forecast from this cyclone. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge this evening along the coasts of the Carolinas within the Storm Surge Warning areas. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the coasts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the warning area through early Saturday. 3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue through next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding is expected today across portions of coastal and northeast South Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Locally considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North Carolina and southern Virginia today into early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS I NIT 30/2100Z 33.9N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 01/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1800Z 37.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 @1816 Ian is now Ex-Ian, do you feel better now? 😛 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Iceresistance said: @1816 Ian is now Ex-Ian, do you feel better now? 😛 Yes. The heat has kicked in so I'm nice and toasty now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) My last take on people who 'we were not ready' for Ian, while I do feel bad for the loss of property, life, and the natural habits he destroyed, I think there was a very strong warning from forecasters. Ian's storm surge was always on his discos, not the 12-18ft that showed up, but it was 1 on the Key messages. Some people are stubborn, I had a friend in Naples tell me he made it through Irma so he'll ride out anything now. Loss of life is always bad and pointing fingers is terrible. Mother Nature is a beast and I don't think some people respect it enough (guy filming his roof get ripped off in a tornado this year🤷♂️.) Posts/Discos from 11PM Tuesday Spoiler This was on page 26/27 From Ian's disco at 11pm Tuesday night Quote BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... // Missing Material // Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and follow any evacuation orders for your area. 11PM Tuesday Night Quote Edited September 30, 2022 by TLChip 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: One of the Southernmost Post-Tropical transitions I've ever seen for September standards. Discussion is in the spoiler. ...IAN BECOMES POST-TROPICAL BUT THE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WIND THREAT CONTINUES... 5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 Location: 33.9°N 79.2°W Moving: N at 15 mph Min pressure: 982 mb Max sustained: 70 mph Reveal hidden contents Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Deep convection has ceased now that Ian has lost its energy source from the Atlantic Ocean, and the circulation has wrapped into cooler surface air. Thus, Ian has transitioned into an extratropical low. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt based on elevated hurricane-force winds still being observed on radar offshore of eastern South Carolina. Ian continues to move faster to the north, around 13 kt, and should turn to the north-northwest later today due to a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States. Ian should rapidly weaken in the cool airmass and dissipate by early Sunday over western North Carolina or Virginia. No significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecast. It should be emphasized that just because Ian has become a post-tropical cyclone that the danger is not over. Dangerous storm surge, flash flooding and high winds are still in the forecast from this cyclone. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge this evening along the coasts of the Carolinas within the Storm Surge Warning areas. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the coasts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the warning area through early Saturday. 3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue through next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding is expected today across portions of coastal and northeast South Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Locally considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North Carolina and southern Virginia today into early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS I NIT 30/2100Z 33.9N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 01/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1800Z 37.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake So it’s a sou’easter? 🤣 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 minute ago, TLChip said: My last take on people who 'we not ready' for Ian, while I do feel bad for the loss of property, life, and the natural habits he destroyed, I think there was a very strong warning from forecasters. Ian's storm surge was always on his discos, not the 12-18ft that showed up, but it was 1 on the Key messages. Some people are stubborn, I had a friend in Naples tell me he made it through Irma so he'll ride out anything now. Loss of life is always bad and pointing fingers is terrible. Mother Nature is a beast and I don't think some people respect it enough (guy filming his roof get ripped off in a tornado this year🤷♂️.) Posts/Discos from 11PM Tuesday Reveal hidden contents This was on page 26/27 From Ian's disco at 11pm Tuesday night 11PM Tuesday Night The man with the nerves of Steel in Ellabell, GA. I have a explanation why it happened. It's on the same topic on when it happened during the April Outbreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 Just now, TLChip said: So it’s a sou’easter? 🤣 Now that is a word that I can't unsee. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The man with the nerves of Steel in Ellabell, GA. I have a explanation why it happened. It's on the same topic on when it happened during the April Outbreak. That shit was crazy. Camera didn't even wobble. That guy's a badass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 30, 2022 Can't get enough of these loops 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Poco said: All of those hurricanes except Irma rapidly intensified only in the GOM iirc, none of them were a major before entering. Current MRMS radar, going to be some really sharp cutoffs for qpf. HRRR Next 8 hours Spoiler Radar Max Gusts QPF GOES East Edited October 1, 2022 by TLChip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 1, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 1, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 1, 2022 For the file 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 They appear to have restored power to ~1.1m customers in 48 hours… go, team! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 1, 2022 Per sources cited on Wikipedia, we're up to 42 fatalities in Florida and an estimated $47 billion in insured losses. Obviously, that doesn't cover uninsured losses and infrastructure damage. The latter is gonna be a huge cost. Costliest hurricanes in US history were Katrina and Harvey, both at $125b. If confirmed, uninsured losses by Ian by itself puts Ian ahead of Ike and behind Sandy, making it the 7th costliest Atlantic hurricane. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 Confirmed Death toll in Florida has already jumped to 42 😥 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: For the file Very cool loop. Seeing it sped up you can really see that once the ERC completed and the eye started contracting, the eastern eyewall never quite completed thankfully. I did notice based on some of the wind reports here that the NHC winds seem to be higher again than observed on land by quite a margin. I don’t remember them being off so much in recent years like this on some of the others. I know some of it might be equipment limitations and power outages for the land observations, just very odd. Edited October 1, 2022 by ak9971 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted October 1, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 1, 2022 22 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Snow posts in the tropical section? What's this world coming to?! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 1, 2022 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Tater said: Snow posts in the tropical section? What's this world coming to?! If you know, you know: Edited October 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Snow huh? Nice work to the cameraman. I didn't see the snow but I can definitely make out a sasquatch and the loch Ness monster in the top left corner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 1, 2022 Admin Share Posted October 1, 2022 Due to Sun-Earth-Moon relationships, high tides will be running higher over the next decade than the past one. Even absent effects of melting land based ice, surges will be worse than the ones we've seen in the last 10 years in comparable storms. 13 hours ago, TLChip said: So it’s a sou’easter? 🤣 The 2017 storm that wrapped phillipe into it and slammed Maine in 2017 was known as such. Lost power for 5 days in that storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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