Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[Sentinel]

14 minutes ago, Burr said:

Definitely taking on hybrid/non-tropical characteristics 

Core is trying right now. It will be an interesting next few hours. 

[Sentinel]

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/hurricane-ian-cripple-floridas-home-insurance-industry/story?id=90638752

[TLChip]

Really looking extratropical, getting that comma look. I think the temp gradient is starting to drive Ian? The mix of cold and warm air firing up his core. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by TLChip

[telejunkie]

14 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

 

Doesn't look as bad from above as I was expecting out on Sanibel and Captiva....but guessing that is because so many houses down there have hurricane strappings tying them down. (A project I plan on doing on my own house someday soon...)

Edited September 30, 2022 by telejunkie

[StretchCT]

14 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

 

It's fairly amazing really.  Most of Captiva seems like nothing happened.  N Sanibel as well. If not for some sand pushed up on that road you'd never know there was a storm.  Then you go to S Sanibel and start seeing the damage.  But same for Cape Coral - most of it looks fine.  Heck, a lot of the boats are still tied to the docks.  Just pockets of destruction.  It also doesn't capture the flooding very well since the water receded. 

[StretchCT]

Recon still finding hurricane winds of 72kts at the surface and 984 pressure.

A look at velocity

Edited September 30, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Lots of dry air. And this is midlevel.

Edited September 30, 2022 by StretchCT

[telejunkie]

5 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

It's fairly amazing really.  Most of Captiva seems like nothing happened.  N Sanibel as well. If not for some sand pushed up on that road you'd never know there was a storm.  Then you go to S Sanibel and start seeing the damage.  But same for Cape Coral - most of it looks fine.  Heck, a lot of the boats are still tied to the docks.  Just pockets of destruction.  It also doesn't capture the flooding very well since the water receded. 

Agreed...but who knows what's under those roofs....seeing the video from Naples with a storm surge that must have been at least 10ft...guessing the insides of many of those structures are not fairing as well as their roof.

[StretchCT]

2 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Agreed...but who knows what's under those roofs....seeing the video from Naples with a storm surge that must have been at least 10ft...guessing the insides of many of those structures are not fairing as well as their roof.

Yeah, kinda where I was going with the flooding.  But it's good not to see houses off their foundations. 

[TLChip]

8 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Agreed...but who knows what's under those roofs....seeing the video from Naples with a storm surge that must have been at least 10ft...guessing the insides of many of those structures are not fairing as well as their roof.

Just amazed at the lack of roof/awning damage. Some sad palms but maybe the worst of the eyewall winds/mesos stayed on the west side. Some of those winds we saw from recon never made it down, at least that’s a good problem to have. 

[Sentinel]

15 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Lots of dry air. And this is midlevel.

This is rather typical with the transition attempting to take place

[StretchCT]

Ferdandina Beach with a near 5 foot surge yesterday

Tides running 2ft above normal so far Charleston and Myrtle Beach.  Not too bad

[StretchCT]

11:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 30
Location: 32.4°N 79.0°W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

Ian dropped 7mb while over the Atlantic. Primitive eyewall exists around half the circulation.

Spoiler

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Satellite images show that Ian has re-developed deep convection
near the center, with frontal features away from the core of the
cyclone.  Additionally, a primitive eyewall has formed around about
half of the circulation.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft recently found peak flight-level winds of 80 kt and SFMR
winds of 72 kt.  Radar data is also showing winds of up to 85 kt 
around 10 thousand feet, with hurricane-force winds now in the
northeastern quadrant.  These values support the initial wind speed
of 75 kt.  NOAA buoy 41004 near the center recently reported a
minimum pressure of 981 mb with some wind, which supports the
advisory value.

Ian is now moving faster to the north, around 12 kt, and should
continue to accelerate to the north-northwest later today due to
a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States.  The new
forecast is adjusted a bit to the east, but should still lead to a
landfall in South Carolina this afternoon.  Little change in
intensity is expected before Ian makes landfall, due to competing
influences of strong shear versus baroclinic forcing from the trough
over water waters.   Ian should rapidly transition into an
extratropical low tonight after landfall, and dissipate by Saturday
night.

It should be emphasized that dangerous winds and life-threatening
storm surge should rapidly increase during the next few hours in
the Storm Surge and Hurricane Warning areas due to Ian moving faster
toward the coast.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today along the
coasts of the Carolinas within the Storm Surge Warning areas.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected along the coasts of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the Hurricane
Warning area soon.  Hurricane conditions are possible in North
Carolina within the Hurricane Watch area by this afternoon.
Preparations should be rushed to completion.

3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue through
next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding
is expected today across portions of coastal and northeast South
Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Locally
considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North
Carolina and southern Virginia today into early Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 32.4N  79.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 34.1N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  01/1200Z 36.0N  80.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  02/0000Z 37.5N  80.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
 

MAx dropsonde winds 96mph at 908mb

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

[Sentinel]

34 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Looks to me like LF is imminent. 

[Iceresistance]

Just now, Uscg Ast said:

Looks to me like LF is imminent. 

Pressure is now down to 979 mb.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Iceresistance
Typo

[Iceresistance]

Florida Death toll now up to 30 😞

[Columbusbuckeye]

13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Florida Death toll now up to 30 😞

I saw this.  I read that this could be the deadliest hurricane in Florida history.  Think about that for a minute.  In an era of instant information and having the ability to see this thing coming day(s) away, this loss of life seems unacceptable to me.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Columbusbuckeye

[MidwestWX]

23 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said:

I saw this.  I read that this could be the deadliest hurricane in Florida history.  Think about that for a minute.  In an era of instant information and having the ability to see this thing coming day(s) away, this loss of life seems unacceptable to me.

We can have perfect messaging for the threats of any particular storm and the public will acknowledge it, but it's not as easy for some to take action. I get it's frustrating. We're always working to improve that disconnect and I know we've spent resources to understand the "why". 

We never want to see fatalities. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by MidwestWX
Word choice

[Tater]

18 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said:

In an era of instant information and having the ability to see this thing coming day(s) away, this loss of life seems unacceptable to me.

On one hand, losing any lives with the info we have available seems ridiculous. OTOH, considering the tens of thousands in the path of this storm, maybe it's not so bad. When you factor in that there will always be those who want to take outsized chances for a thrill, plus that Florida likely skews a bit more "independent" (read "distrusts authority") than many places, perhaps this is a reasonable number. You can never save everyone.

Of course, perhaps if we rated storms based on storm surge and stressed the danger of it more, a few more folks might recognize the danger. But then again, maybe not.

[Burr]

3 hours ago, StretchCT said:

 

I’m relieved to see much less “wholesale destruction” than I had feared.  I think it’s a testament to a) the building codes, and b) the affluence/wealth of this area to afford newer construction that is built to withstand the forces of nature.

I took a screenshot of one area where you can clearly tell the quality of construction makes a big difference in the aftermath… there are plenty of other instances as I panned along the coast, but definitely in the minority.  

 

[Burr]

Hopefully it’s going out with more of a whisper…

[StretchCT]

I think this is landfall.  Two different radar perspectives.  Santee/McClellanville

[StretchCT]

Winds not terribly impressive, these are gusts.  But the distance inland is interesting.  They'll have some power outages for sure.  (ignore the 100 - every value on that site is 100)

[StretchCT]

Another view