Burr Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 79.4W ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH... 120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB... 29.12 INCHES Edited September 30, 2022 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) 110mph max wind at 935mb with 81 at the surface. 96mph about 60 feet up. As previously noted, there was also a 85mph hdob. Nonetheless, speed is set at 75.🤷♂️ Edited September 30, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 First credited image I’ve seen of damage on Sanibel. Ignoring the fire, there are a few identifiable palms without fronds… ☹️ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted September 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 30, 2022 What are the odds that a disproportionate number of folks die from Ian's second round because they don't take it seriously because it is "just" a Cat 1? I hope that's not the case. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 30, 2022 Hmmm, Ukie again leading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 20 minutes ago, Tater said: What are the odds that a disproportionate number of folks die from Ian's second round because they don't take it seriously because it is "just" a Cat 1? I hope that's not the case. All you need is something to hit you. Cantore was very lucky to not get hit in the head 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 30, 2022 Closer up Versus 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 30, 2022 Global gusts aren't that impressive. 60's for most models. Barely Cat 1 level gusts, not sustained. Spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 Number of Fatalities in Florida is now up to 13. 😢 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 30, 2022 Recon progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 20 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Hmmm, Ukie again leading. Any reason why Ukie is more accurate than others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, clm said: Any reason why Ukie is more accurate than others? No idea. Ukie is good with tracks, sometimes. But it's been awful with intensity. Some of our winter experts would have a better clue or opinion. I think it's lower resolution, and perhaps does better with troughs? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Tater said: What are the odds that a disproportionate number of folks die from Ian's second round because they don't take it seriously because it is "just" a Cat 1? I hope that's not the case. Looking like pretty good odds, if this is any sign: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) Just found another ~75knot surface wind… and 985mb pressure on this 3rd pass (987 on the first, 986 on the second) 986 on previous) Edited September 30, 2022 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 30, 2022 This was rough. The car was kinda funny though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 30, 2022 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1115 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN A LITTLE STRONGER... Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 79.3W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH... 140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB... 29.06 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) They’ve restored power to about 500,000 customers in the past 24 hours… Edited September 30, 2022 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) Something to consider, the strongest winds have been in the NW quadrant, so they would be blowing off-shore at landfall… weaker winds flowing on shore would mean less surge. Edited September 30, 2022 by Burr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) Current radar HRRR simulated radar HRRR Max gusts Starting to look more like a nor'easter now Edited September 30, 2022 by TLChip 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) Last forecast is the first that didn't have a noticeable shift east. Euro and GFS still not east enough Edited September 30, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Definitely taking on hybrid/non-tropical characteristics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 NHC has Ian with sustained winds of 85mph. Looks more like a nor easter at this point, but Ian had a really nice core that he built as he was heading into Cuba that has sustained him on his continued push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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