1816 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Tater said: A Christian charity organization I volunteer for has several members researching the cleanup needs from Ian. So far they have found minimal need for response/cleanup in the areas they have been able to access (some places are still flooded or otherwise impassable. They are still looking, but so far have yet to find anything worth mobilizing for. Bear in mind that this is a Christian charity, so they aren't looking for at homes/businesses that are adequately insured, nor do they respond to resort areas. The devastation may be quite confined, fortunately. I think this lends more credence to the idea that this isn't a "real" Cat 4 storm, and definitely not a Cat 5 like we thought it may be nearing during its peak. The areas with the worst devastation in this instance just so happen to be tourist areas and resorts and businesses. That scene of the fmb square and pier is pretty devastates. There's no needy people living on sanibel I would venture to say. I haven't been to ft myers lately but I would venture to say the poorer areas are inland close to downtown not on the water. I'm just saying it certainly looks cat4 to me. I even see some areas of shredded vegetation. But it seems confined so not complete strippage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 42 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: There was sustained winds in the mid 90s where there was stations, the worst of the eyewall winds dodged the weather stations. I estimated 100-115 mph winds on the FL511 Camera at I-75 and Tupelo Blades Blvd. Not having the data we want is always a problem. However, the definitions for hurricane categories also provide a description of expected damage. What I've seen is consistent with Cat 2, maybe Cat 3. Most damage was from flooding. Of course, we could say Ian as a Cat 2 or 3 was more destructive than Charley at Cat 4 due to larger area, slower speed, and more storm surge. Shows the limitations of ratings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) Before we draw any conclusions on what the max wind speeds were at landfall, I’d like to suggest at least waiting until we see what Captiva and Sanibel look like. It’s unclear that what we’ve seen so far is the worst of the damage. If anyone has images (other than the causeway bridge that washed out), please post! As you also say, the compounding damage from the surge/flooding will make it difficult to assess the wind speeds, since a lot of what might have been left behind in the worst winds was also possibly washed away. 👍👍 Edited September 29, 2022 by Burr 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) Tampa Bay Bucs are gonna play at home on Sunday while 90 miles to their south is completely devastated. Tampa would've experienced a similar fate if Ian landed a couple hundred miles north. I guarantee all NFL games this week will mention and show the damage caused by Ian and provide a source to aid in disaster relief, but I think having the game in Tampa will be really effective in helping disaster relief. It'll be great to have tens of millions to see what damage has been done and immediately be provided with a way to support. That's one thing that's great about sports/tv/social media. The Cincinnati/Miami game tonight will kick it off Edited September 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Not just sharks you need to watch out for… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 17 minutes ago, Burr said: That’s the best footage I’ve seen yet. Insane how strong those winds were. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 28 minutes ago, Burr said: Go to the 11 second mark and then compare that with the rest. If we saw more of that, I'd agree with the Cat 4 rating. But that's an extremely small area and looks more like tornado or mesovortex action. Having said that, a lack of destruction isn't proof that strong winds weren't present. I was amazed at what stood in Puerto Rico and emerged entirely intact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 29, 2022 Author Share Posted September 29, 2022 Just found this footage of the damage from Ft. Myers and Sanibel. @Burr 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Some photos from AP: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 I don't know what category this storm is gonna get put into but in my opinion it belongs in category: bad e fucking nough 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 29, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 29, 2022 There are going to be insolvencies from this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) 🐐 has spoken Edited September 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Back to our live coverage. Incoming to South Carolina: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 29, 2022 Author Share Posted September 29, 2022 Recon is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Burr said: Back to our live coverage. Incoming to South Carolina: Might this one be a bit more difficult to determine landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 Goodnight Ian 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Recon is there They found ~75 knot wind speed on the inbound. Edited September 29, 2022 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 29, 2022 Ian's back Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 ...IAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN... ...TAKING AIM AT THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 79.9W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Little River Inlet to Cape Fear. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Little River Inlet to Cape Fear. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Cape Fear River. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from east of Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia Line to Cape Fear * Neuse River * St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Cape Fear A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Vero Beach Florida to Savannah River * Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico River * Cape Fear River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River * East of Cape Fear to Surf City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 79.9 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night. On the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian could slightly strengthen before landfall tomorrow, and is forecast to rapidly weaken over the southeastern United States late Friday into Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km). Kennedy Space Center Tower 1 recently reported a wind gust to 89 mph (145 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...4-7 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft * Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft * Cape Fear River...2-4 ft * St. Johns River...2-4 ft * East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm conditions beginning overnight. Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the warning area on the east coasts of Florida and should spread northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts today through Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into Friday, and in the watch area in North Carolina on Friday morning. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: * Coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts. * Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches * Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor river flooding is possible across South Carolina through Friday. Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible this weekend across portions of northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible Friday across the coastal Carolinas and southeast Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, Florida and Georgia. Swells will increase along the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 Someone said this on a different forum (S2K) Quote Breaking news: Hurricane too angry to die 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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