Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[StretchCT]

8 minutes ago, Mainiac said:

It seems there is a lot of confusion in the general public about the Saffir-Simpson scale and the appreciable threat level that can be derived from a single number. For instance, both Charlie and Ian were Category 4 storms, but of vastly different scale, speed and duration - posing many different dangers.

We need more numbers!

 I am proposing an enhanced classification methodology called the WxSphere Integrated Notational Declaration System, or WINDS.

1. WINDS will use a six-category system based on the Saffir Simpson Scale as more is always better.

2. The notation in WINDS beings with a decimal and integer placed after the Category which rates the size of the wind field (Peak Velocity Radius) from 1-6 based on how far from center velocities of the primary category classification exist. The actual formula for which we derive the rating will be an eye-watering mathematical monstrosity that should keep the laymen at bay. 

3. A decimal and third integer will be added that has a rating of 1-6 which captures the expected total joules released per hour of the entire storm system. Thus we could provide an energy output map that shows the average homeowner the projected joules of energy to be released over their property in a given period, which would be very helpful in making evacuation decisions. 

In practice, the most dangerous of storms would be rated 6.6.6 which would be a sign from God to abandon that house on a key and seek shelter. 

I believe this is a foolproof system from top to bottom which would clear up any confusion and provide for a better-informed public! 😂

 

 

 

I was just going to suggest that you divide the number of peak users online by 5, and that's the category of the storm.

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I was just going to suggest that you divide the number of peak users online by 5, and that's the category of the storm.

Hurricane Sandy: the first ever estimated Category 1000

Edited September 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

Ukie had this going into Myrtle Beach area 12z run yesterday, so I'll ride that train.  

 Other 12z runs yesterday

HWRF didn't take it off the coast. 

HMON and Icon between HH and Charleston

HAFS and FV3 at HH

GFS, RGEM and Euro SC/GA Border'

CMC and NAM Charleston

 

 

[clm]

21 minutes ago, Mainiac said:

It seems there is a lot of confusion in the general public about the Saffir-Simpson scale and the appreciable threat level that can be derived from a single number. For instance, both Charlie and Ian were Category 4 storms, but of vastly different scale, speed and duration - posing many different dangers.

We need more numbers!

 I am proposing an enhanced classification methodology called the WxSphere Integrated Notational Declaration System, or WINDS.

1. WINDS will use a six-category system based on the Saffir Simpson Scale as more is always better.

2. The notation in WINDS beings with a decimal and integer placed after the Category which rates the size of the wind field (Peak Velocity Radius) from 1-6 based on how far from center velocities of the primary category classification exist. The actual formula for which we derive the rating will be an eye-watering mathematical monstrosity that should keep the laymen at bay. 

3. A decimal and third integer will be added that has a rating of 1-6 which captures the expected total joules released per hour of the entire storm system. Thus we could provide an energy output map that shows the average homeowner the projected joules of energy to be released over their property in a given period, which would be very helpful in making evacuation decisions. 

In practice, the most dangerous of storms would be rated 6.6.6 which would be a sign from God to abandon that house on a key and seek shelter. 

I believe this is a foolproof system from top to bottom which would clear up any confusion and provide for a better-informed public! 😂

 

 

 

But how does it factor in this?

 

[TLChip]

10 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I was just going to suggest that you divide the number of peak users online by 5, and that's the category of the storm.

We might make some really bad calls on NE snowstorm busts with that🤣.

 

It’s hard to put a number on anything Mother Nature does, it’s just way to complex. Like Harvey sure it was a good cat 4 and there was damage but the biggest aspect was the fact that it sat and spun in Texas and dropped over 60” of rain.  Water destroys everything 😉. 
 

Snowstorms are rated after the storm but if we did that with hurricanes no one would take them seriously. 

[Sentinel]

30 minutes ago, Tater said:

And this is where @StretchCT posts about wind speeds really matter. Are we having more dangerous storms and more of them? Or have we changed wind speed definitions, spent more time sampling systems, and built more expensive real estate in hurricane hotspots?

I can make a very convincing case it's the latter.

Always have to remember what's behind the interpretation of the data, ie, why is it being presented the way it is. It does not always mean nefarious reasons -many times its not- however there is bias in everything. 

Correlation is not causation. 

[Sentinel]

29 minutes ago, Mainiac said:

It seems there is a lot of confusion in the general public about the Saffir-Simpson scale and the appreciable threat level that can be derived from a single number. For instance, both Charlie and Ian were Category 4 storms, but of vastly different scale, speed and duration - posing many different dangers.

We need more numbers!

 I am proposing an enhanced classification methodology called the WxSphere Integrated Notational Declaration System, or WINDS.

1. WINDS will use a six-category system based on the Saffir Simpson Scale as more is always better.

2. The notation in WINDS beings with a decimal and integer placed after the Category which rates the size of the wind field (Peak Velocity Radius) from 1-6 based on how far from center velocities of the primary category classification exist. The actual formula for which we derive the rating will be an eye-watering mathematical monstrosity that should keep the laymen at bay. 

3. A decimal and third integer will be added that has a rating of 1-6 which captures the expected total joules released per hour of the entire storm system. Thus we could provide an energy output map that shows the average homeowner the projected joules of energy to be released over their property in a given period, which would be very helpful in making evacuation decisions. 

In practice, the most dangerous of storms would be rated 6.6.6 which would be a sign from God to abandon that house on a key and seek shelter. 

I believe this is a foolproof system from top to bottom which would clear up any confusion and provide for a better-informed public! 😂

 

 

 

@BurrI need to write that submission for the journal. I got sidetracked!

Also @Mainiacyour avatar is perfect for you. Just saying. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[Tater]

A Christian charity organization I volunteer for has several members researching the cleanup needs from Ian. So far they have found minimal need for response/cleanup in the areas they have been able to access (some places are still flooded or otherwise impassable. They are still looking, but so far have yet to find anything worth mobilizing for.

Bear in mind that this is a Christian charity, so they aren't looking for at homes/businesses that are adequately insured, nor do they respond to resort areas.

The devastation may be quite confined, fortunately. I think this lends more credence to the idea that this isn't a "real" Cat 4 storm, and definitely not a Cat 5 like we thought it may be nearing during its peak.

[Harberr62]

25 minutes ago, Tater said:

A Christian charity organization I volunteer for has several members researching the cleanup needs from Ian. So far they have found minimal need for response/cleanup in the areas they have been able to access (some places are still flooded or otherwise impassable. They are still looking, but so far have yet to find anything worth mobilizing for.

Bear in mind that this is a Christian charity, so they aren't looking for at homes/businesses that are adequately insured, nor do they respond to resort areas.

The devastation may be quite confined, fortunately. I think this lends more credence to the idea that this isn't a "real" Cat 4 storm, and definitely not a Cat 5 like we thought it may be nearing during its peak.

“Real”? Tell that to those who lost everything. Pretty real to them. Cmon. 

[Sentinel]

1 minute ago, Harberr62 said:

“Real”? Tell that to those who lost everything. Pretty real to them. Cmon. 

I understand the sentiment.. But that is not what @Tatermeant here. 

@Taterwas harkening back the conversation earlier about how cat 4/5 is used improperly many times and this leads to dissalusion and a lack of compliance when these large storms threaten folks as many persons do not see the widespread devastation of "true" cat 4/5 hurricane. 

That withstanding, it's early to determine damage 

 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Mainiac said:

It seems there is a lot of confusion in the general public about the Saffir-Simpson scale and the appreciable threat level that can be derived from a single number. For instance, both Charlie and Ian were Category 4 storms, but of vastly different scale, speed and duration - posing many different dangers.

We need more numbers!

 I am proposing an enhanced classification methodology called the WxSphere Integrated Notational Declaration System, or WINDS.

1. WINDS will use a six-category system based on the Saffir Simpson Scale as more is always better.

2. The notation in WINDS beings with a decimal and integer placed after the Category which rates the size of the wind field (Peak Velocity Radius) from 1-6 based on how far from center velocities of the primary category classification exist. The actual formula for which we derive the rating will be an eye-watering mathematical monstrosity that should keep the laymen at bay. 

3. A decimal and third integer will be added that has a rating of 1-6 which captures the expected total joules released per hour of the entire storm system. Thus we could provide an energy output map that shows the average homeowner the projected joules of energy to be released over their property in a given period, which would be very helpful in making evacuation decisions. 

In practice, the most dangerous of storms would be rated 6.6.6 which would be a sign from God to abandon that house on a key and seek shelter. 

I believe this is a foolproof system from top to bottom which would clear up any confusion and provide for a better-informed public! 😂

 

 

 

Nah, I'll try to do scales of 1 to 10 based on damage potential from wind, storm surge, rainfall, tornado threat, and impact level with the combination from the previous four of them. 1 being minimal, to 10 as historic/catastrophic.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that it's directly tied to the Category number on the SSHS.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Iceresistance
Forgot to add

[StretchCT]

[Iceresistance]

Ian is a hurricane again!

[Tater]

14 minutes ago, Harberr62 said:

“Real”? Tell that to those who lost everything. Pretty real to them. Cmon. 

I've personally seen devastation from  Cat 5s and volunteered to help the less fortunate rebuild and recover. I'm not trying to diminish the feelings folks have of suffering, but I also call things like I see them.

The US is a big place. If you choose to live in Florida, you know hurricanes will hit. Might not be a Cat 5 in your front yard, but you will feel the effects periodically. You also aren't required to build on an island or the beach. You either build to withstand the wind and water, or you face the consequences. You wanna live in the danger zone, then you pay your money and you take your chances.

My point is that this is not a catastrophic storm with widespread devastation, which is kinda what is implied by "major hurricane." And just because a storm is "only" a Cat 1 or 2 doesn't mean it wasn't bad. Folks in KY, TN, and WV have had homes washed away in thunderstorms.

Personally, I think definitions matter, and it bothers me when they get gradually changed, often by people with an agenda. And I'm skeptical that a hurricane is a Cat 4 when none of the sustained winds on shore even managed triple digits (maybe there were some that I missed).

[StretchCT]

 

[Tater]

Amazing how the rain is staying offshore. Did Trump's wall get misplaced? 

[StretchCT]

back to hurricane - forecast to 80mph.

5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 29
Location: 29.3°N 79.9°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
 

Disco highlights:  Hybrid system that looks extratropical but comes with a warm core.  Convection is expected to develop around the core overnight. Sustained winds of 60kts at New Smyrna and radar winds at 70-80kts at 5k feet lead them to raise the speed to75mph. Ian has been uncooperative (like most Ian's I know) and remained on the right side of the track. H Warning extended to Cape Fear. 

Spoiler

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Ian remains a hybrid tropical cyclone with characteristics of an
extratropical low, including a comma-pattern on satellite images
and some frontal features in the outer circulation.  The cyclone
continues to have a warm core, however, and all indications are that
it will re-develop strong convection over the center overnight.
Based on Melbourne Doppler radar velocity data of persistent 70-80-
kt winds from 5-10 thousand feet, and earlier sustained winds of
about 60 kt near that band from an observation in New Smyrna Beach,
the initial wind speed is raised to 65 kt.  This makes Ian a
hurricane again.   An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to fly through Ian this evening and will provide a
better intensity estimate.

Ian finally appears to be making more of a turn to the north-
northeast this afternoon.  The hurricane should turn to the north
overnight due to the incoming trough diving southward over the
southern United States and then north-northwestward on Saturday
with an increase in forward speed.  While the overall synoptic
pattern is similar in all of the models, Ian has been uncooperative
and remains right of the previous track.  Thus, the new forecast is
adjusted to the east, and lies east of the model consensus.
Assuming Ian re-develops thunderstorms near the core overnight, it
should take the expected north-northwest turn, but this shouldn't 
be considered a confident forecast yet.  Because of the 
uncertainty, the Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward into 
North Carolina to Cape Fear.

The hurricane is moving over the Gulf Stream for the next day or
so, where it has some time for further re-intensification.
Additionally, the trough interaction should provide a baroclinic
energy kick.  These factors point to some strengthening before
landfall tomorrow.  The new forecast is close to the GFS and
regional hurricane models and is a bit stronger than before.  It
should be emphasized that while we don't expect Ian to be a classic
hurricane at landfall, this does not diminish the danger it poses.
Strong winds and storm surge will also extend far from the center
and will begin well before the center arrives.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through Friday
along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected across coasts of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina beginning early Friday,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Hurricane conditions are
possible by tonight along the coasts of northeastern Florida,
Georgia, and North Carolina where a Hurricane Watch is in 
effect.   Preparations should be rushed to completion since 
tropical-storm-force winds will begin well before the center 
approaches the coast.

3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue across
portions of central Florida, with considerable flooding in northern
Florida.  Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across
coastal portions of northeast Florida through Friday. Local
significant flooding in southeastern Georgia and eastern South
Carolina is expected through the end of the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 29.3N  79.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 30.5N  79.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 32.8N  79.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 35.0N  80.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  01/1800Z 36.5N  81.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
 

 

[Iceresistance]

Just now, Tater said:

I've personally seen devastation from  Cat 5s and volunteered to help the less fortunate rebuild and recover. I'm not trying to diminish the feelings folks have of suffering, but I also call things like I see them.

The US is a big place. If you choose to live in Florida, you know hurricanes will hit. Might not be a Cat 5 in your front yard, but you will feel the effects periodically. You also aren't required to build on an island or the beach. You either build to withstand the wind and water, or you face the consequences. You wanna live in the danger zone, then you pay your money and you take your chances.

My point is that this is not a catastrophic storm with widespread devastation, which is kinda what is implied by "major hurricane." And just because a storm is "only" a Cat 1 or 2 doesn't mean it wasn't bad. Folks in KY, TN, and WV have had homes washed away in thunderstorms.

Personally, I think definitions matter, and it bothers me when they get gradually changed, often by people with an agenda. And I'm skeptical that a hurricane is a Cat 4 when none of the sustained winds on shore even managed triple digits (maybe there were some that I missed).

There was sustained winds in the mid 90s where there was stations, the worst of the eyewall winds dodged the weather stations. I estimated 100-115 mph winds on the FL511 Camera at I-75 and Tupelo Blades Blvd. 

[StretchCT]

This is by a pretty populated area

[Burr]

12 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

This is by a pretty populated area

Am I reading that correctly… 17” higher than the previous record?

[StretchCT]

Still some wind out there.  This is at 600 feet

[StretchCT]

Radar and lightning imposed on the satellite.  The convection isn't firing up that much around the core, but just outside.   Still trying to figure if it's a wide circulation like when it hit, or a smaller one now. If wider, then you can argue that convection is going off in the core.  But will it wrap?

 

[Tater]

13 minutes ago, Burr said:

Am I reading that correctly… 17” higher than the previous record?

Looks like it. And 17" might not sound like a lot, but note that 12" is the difference between minor and major flooding.

[junior]

29 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

This is by a pretty populated area

My aunt lives a block away from that River. I've visited there many times and did not know there was a River running through their neighborhood. Interesting. Google maps ftw.