Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[NWOhioChaser]

Keeps reorganizing like this we might see it reach cat. 2 by second landfall...

[StretchCT]

Really good discussion by Levi as to why this won't increase rapidly. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Burr]

Didn’t see this posted last night… do not try at home warning.  He got very lucky not to be impaled.

 

[Burr]

More from Twitterpocolypse:

 

[Tater]

35 minutes ago, Burr said:

You can really see what the winds are doing at various levels in this loop. Upper levels are moving NE while lower levels are coming SW and Ian is wrapping that cold air in (as Levi mentioned in the above video). The further north this goes, the more these forces will disrupt it.

[FortySixAnd32]

13 minutes ago, Burr said:

Didn’t see this posted last night… do not try at home warning.  He got very lucky not to be impaled.

 

Jimmy had a rough day yesterday!!!!

[StretchCT]

 

[FortySixAnd32]

Wondering what Cayo Costa looks like today????

[1816]

1 hour ago, TLChip said:

Agreed big time with you @StretchCT number one killer is surge and second is flooding. The winds, while dangerous aren’t going to kill most, and the biggest threat under 100 is power lines. I assume most buildings after Andrew in 92 are built a bit stronger. 
 

I don’t think there is a good way to save everyone. If I was watching this storm and lived in any of those surge areas, I’d be prepared leave. I guess it was hard he was slow moving and turned right and they ran out of time to get out of the way. 
 

edit: Also we are all weather nerds and I think as curious as most of us are we understand what worst case could be and is life threatening.
 

I’m guilty, I climb in the NE in the winter. Many have died on Washington most underprepared. We’ve turned back exhausted and couldn’t see in fog, gone up in a storm with 60-75mph and blowing snow/rime ice and been up there on a wonderful blue sky day! Some of us just want to experience Mother Nature kicking our butts. 

I think everyone on here probably has a good sense of how aware the average non weather enthusiast is about weather. They turn on the local or national news for a few minutes every couple days. So they probably thought it was a Cat 3 going to Tampa up until 24 hrs or less. So out of that subgroup how many are willing or able to get the hell out of there on short notice. Especially because they only remember when the forecast bust. Similar phenomenon when a slam dunk winter storm comes along and no one believes until its on the ground. 

[telejunkie]

Ex wife just sent this to me....they were filming was from next door to where her parents and grandparents used to live.

 

[Burr]

2 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

Wondering what Cayo Costa looks like today????

Wet.  

I’m waiting for the helicopter views from Fort Meyers Beach, over Sanibel and Captiva.  (Probably exist already, please post if you see one).  I’m expecting to hear about new channels carving through those barrier islands, and then discussions about whether to fill them in or build bridges….

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[StretchCT]

Can see something going on here with the circulation, similar to what some pointed out earlier, with a center moving out from the center.  My guess is the shear pushing the midlevel circulation faster than the lower circulation? Or the shear is blowing off the convection?

 

[NWOhioChaser]

41 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Really good discussion by Levi as to why this won't increase rapidly. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

That's a relief. So any strengthening we see now is a direct result of it entering the east side of the Gulf Stream. Cliche did such a great job explaining that last night as well. 

[clm]

35 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I think everyone on here probably has a good sense of how aware the average non weather enthusiast is about weather. They turn on the local or national news for a few minutes every couple days. So they probably thought it was a Cat 3 going to Tampa up until 24 hrs or less. So out of that subgroup how many are willing or able to get the hell out of there on short notice. Especially because they only remember when the forecast bust. Similar phenomenon when a slam dunk winter storm comes along and no one believes until its on the ground. 

Many times I have seen people I know do that.  Yes myself included before I got more into weather. 

Now when I try to explain to them that the models show X storm is/could go this way or that way, what I hear is "Yeah but, Rich Hoffman said <blah blah blah>" or "<insert weatherman or news person on tv/radio> said <blah blah blah>" and don't listen.  Over the course of time, some have come around, like the wife.

Of course i'm no expert, but report what I see in the models and what I learn from others on here.

People forget that weather is really unpredictable and despite what Doc Brown said in 2015 .

Doc: First, you've gotta get out and change clothes.

Marty McFly: Right now? It's pouring rain.

Doc: [realizing Marty's right, he checks his watch] Wait five more seconds.

[the rain instantly stops and the clouds clear]

Doc: Right on the tick. Amazing. Absolutely amazing. Too bad the post office isn't as efficient as the weather service.

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[Burr]

Really sucking in the colder, drier air from the west side now into the exposed core… just going to struggle for restrengthening.

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Burr

[StretchCT]

Still some winds there.  1200 feet or so

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

 

Pavement scouring as well. That's going to take FOREVER to fix. Not to mention the money.

This is exactly the kind of damage you'd expect from an EF4 or EF5 tornado. HOWEVER, this was from the storm surge. That gives you an idea of how insanely strong storm surge is.

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

St Augustine under water.

 

[Iceresistance]

Ian may be a hurricane again!

[NWOhioChaser]

Ian really mimicking more of an extratropical entity right now.

Edited September 29, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[Tater]

31 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

 

And this is where @StretchCT posts about wind speeds really matter. Are we having more dangerous storms and more of them? Or have we changed wind speed definitions, spent more time sampling systems, and built more expensive real estate in hurricane hotspots?

I can make a very convincing case it's the latter.

[Mainiac]

It seems there is a lot of confusion in the general public about the Saffir-Simpson scale and the appreciable threat level that can be derived from a single number. For instance, both Charlie and Ian were Category 4 storms, but of vastly different scale, speed and duration - posing many different dangers.

We need more numbers!

 I am proposing an enhanced classification methodology called the WxSphere Integrated Notational Declaration System, or WINDS.

1. WINDS will use a six-category system based on the Saffir Simpson Scale as more is always better.

2. The notation in WINDS beings with a decimal and integer placed after the Category which rates the size of the wind field (Peak Velocity Radius) from 1-6 based on how far from center velocities of the primary category classification exist. The actual formula for which we derive the rating will be an eye-watering mathematical monstrosity that should keep the laymen at bay. 

3. A decimal and third integer will be added that has a rating of 1-6 which captures the expected total joules released per hour of the entire storm system. Thus we could provide an energy output map that shows the average homeowner the projected joules of energy to be released over their property in a given period, which would be very helpful in making evacuation decisions. 

In practice, the most dangerous of storms would be rated 6.6.6 which would be a sign from God to abandon that house on a key and seek shelter. 

I believe this is a foolproof system from top to bottom which would clear up any confusion and provide for a better-informed public! 😂

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]