Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 Ian predicted to hit as cat 1 now. Disco in spoiler - moved more east than expected and faster, thus reached water faster. Winds back up to 70mph. Calling it a hybrid, winds are atypical structure and well out in front of the storm. Peak surge adjusted up to 7 feet for SC. Spoiler Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 The center of Ian has emerged into the western Atlantic Ocean to the north of Cape Canaveral. While satellite images show the system is becoming a hybrid cyclone, with frontal features outside of the core of Ian, the winds from multiple sources are notable. Velocity data from NWS Doppler radar indicate maximum winds of about 70-75 kt at 10,000 ft over land, and sustained winds of about 55 kt were recorded in the Daytona Beach area earlier this morning. These data support a higher initial intensity, now 60 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving northeastward at about 8 kt. Ian has stubbornly gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days and has moved back over water faster than expected. A mid-level shortwave trough moving southward across the southern United States should turn Ian northward overnight and north-northwestward on Saturday. The official track forecast is shifted to the east, consistent with the latest consensus guidance. Ian should move over the Gulf Stream tonight and tomorrow for a longer period of time than previously anticipated, which should maintain Ian's central convection. Additionally, an increased pressure gradient on the northwestern side from a stationary front near the southeastern US, should provide a boost to the wind speeds on that side of the storm. We now expect Ian to become a hurricane again by this evening. As the system approaches South Carolina, Ian should maintain this intensity, and Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the entire coast of South Carolina. This scenario is consistent with the global and regional hurricane model guidance. It is worth noting that Ian is forecast to have atypical structure when it nears the southeastern United States, and strong winds will extend well ahead of the center, even on the northwestern side. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected across the South Carolina coast beginning early Friday, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight along the coasts of northeastern Florida and Georgia, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Preparations should be rushed to completion since tropical-storm-force winds will begin well before the center approaches the coast. 3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue across portions of central Florida, with considerable flooding in northern Florida. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across coastal portions of northeast Florida through Friday. Local significant flooding in southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina is expected through the end of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 28.7N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 30.0N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 31.8N 79.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 34.0N 80.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/1200Z 35.9N 81.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/0000Z 37.0N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, Tater said: There you go with logic and reason. Using those usually comes right after you say, "Oops, that was really dumb." (Edit: or right after your wife asks "What were you thinking?!!!") Most don't plan to be directly exposed. They think they are sheltered well enough. It's when their shelter proves inadequate that they win the Darwin award. I keep forgetting logic and reasoning should be tossed out. I'm too old school. 😁 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 Checkout the parking garage in Kissimmee 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) Welp, I'm quick to say when I might be wrong, and I might be wrong. This system, over the gulf stream, with some structure still intact and currently a 70mph TS, might be able to hit Cat 2 before running into S. Carolina. BTW...did anyone see the nonsense the GFS came up with east of the Yucatan at the end of the 06z run? Edited September 29, 2022 by Psu1313 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Not sure if this has been posted… backside worse than the front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 29, 2022 Author Share Posted September 29, 2022 22 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: Welp, I'm quick to say when I might be wrong, and I might be wrong. This system, over the gulf stream, with some structure still intact and currently a 70mph TS, might be able to hit Cat 2 before running into S. Carolina. BTW...did anyone see the nonsense the GFS came up with east of the Yucatan at the end of the 06z run? Yes, if this verifies, I would be like "NOT AGAIN!!!" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 beach cam - think it's on a loop. Yes, there is supposed to be a beach there. That building is the Breakers which has really good hamburgers. https://www.volusia.org/news/new-smyrna.stml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) Seeing some more pictures coming out now. Below is a live stream grab from local news near where the causeway was damaged in Sanibel. Looks more like what I was expecting, lot of vegetation bare, roads washed out, etc. Edited to included a street view of the area Best I can tell looks like a lot of vegetation in middle of the Blvd washed away. Edited September 29, 2022 by ak9971 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 19 minutes ago, Burr said: Not sure if this has been posted… backside worse than the front. Insane. So is the faker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 29, 2022 Author Share Posted September 29, 2022 Just now, clm said: There is a guy reading the plaque like there is nothing wrong in Key West! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 29, 2022 Author Share Posted September 29, 2022 Ian is reorganizing faster than expected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 That eye looks to be reforming too. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 48 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Yes, if this verifies, I would be like "NOT AGAIN!!!" It's ok, the 12z run hits every one of the Antilles. But it's only up to hr 264 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 31 minutes ago, clm said: Curb-height wall possibly missing from the right side…(?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Looks like it’s trying to wrap the convection around the open / exposed south side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) I want to highlight what many of us saw in real-time last night, included in the NHC 11am Discussion. ”The storm is moving northeastward at about 8 kt. Ian has stubbornly gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days and has moved back over water faster than expected.” ”Ian should move over the Gulf Stream tonight and tomorrow for a longer period of time than previously anticipated, which should maintain Ian's central convection. Additionally, an increased pressure gradient on the northwestern side from a stationary front near the southeastern US, should provide a boost to the wind speeds on that side of the storm. We now expect Ian to become a hurricane again by this evening. As the system approaches South Carolina, Ian should maintain this intensity, and Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the entire coast of South Carolina. This scenario is consistent with the global and regional hurricane model guidance. It is worth noting that Ian is forecast to have atypical structure when it nears the southeastern United States, and strong winds will extend well ahead of the center, even on the northwestern side.” Edited September 29, 2022 by Burr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, Burr said: Curb-height wall possibly missing from the right side…(?) Nah looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, clm said: Nah looks the same. This section looks like it was here On my first screen grab. Or maybe not!!! I dunno! Edited September 29, 2022 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, Burr said: This section looks like it was here On my first screen grab. Or maybe not!!! I dunno! Yep, you are right. I zoomed in on the latest picture today. Part of the fence is gone too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Ok why is there a fence with bars curving inward to keep people from hopping over when you can, um, just go off the side? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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