Jpfalcon Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, LUCC said: Just an observation/question, why is it that gusts rarely match/reach the recon wind speeds. Ian was 155mph at landfall, any measured winds remotely close? I see 126 as highest..... 1. Measurements are taken at flight level which is way above where anyone actually lives. Those winds need to mix down in order to have impact. 2. Most of those measurements are taken over water where there is no land interaction, resulting in lower friction and thus higher gusts. Manmade structures, natural topography, etc. can have an impact on the actual wind gusts observed at the surface. Is it possible a very localized gust equal to the sustained recon winds occurs on land? Certainly. Most mets really don't expect that to happen though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Burr said: 👎 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, FortySixAnd32 said: https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/hurricane-ian-tracker-2022-news-path-weather-09-29-2022 Sadly, it's not all that surprising. The focus all week was on what the storm was going to do to Tampa. Even CNN ran a front page headline saying that this was Tampa's worst case scenario (paraphrasing). Then, Ian intensifies in a fashion stronger than any one conceivably imagined and hit Florida further south than expected and people who had been planning to ride it out didn't react, weren't paying attention, or whatever were shellacked with a storm surge that was insane. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, LUCC said: Just an observation/question, why is it that gusts rarely match/reach the recon wind speeds. Ian was 155mph at landfall, any measured winds remotely close? I see 126 as highest..... Land friction I would assume, those winds are spinning with only water around. Biggest factor with Ian is going to be his strongest winds where on the opposite side of landfall. He was still ‘spinnning up’, not 170 Cat 5 rolling into land but trying to accelerate upon landfall. I bet today we’ll see some of the 130-150 mph damage. Look at the vortex’s spinning from cliches post earlier, impressive. Edited September 29, 2022 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 29, 2022 Author Share Posted September 29, 2022 One of the other weather forum members has lost his/her mother at Sanibel. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Just joining here for the storm, I had to follow yesterday by myself because otherwise I would have gotten 0 done on here 😁 But I just have to wonder how this thing acts when it reemerges over water. The spaghettis trends has been stronger, yet not overwhelming data going back to a cat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: Sadly, it's not all that surprising. The focus all week was on what the storm was going to do to Tampa. Even CNN ran a front page headline saying that this was Tampa's worst case scenario (paraphrasing). Then, Ian intensifies in a fashion stronger than any one conceivably imagined and hit Florida further south than expected and people who had been planning to ride it out didn't react, weren't paying attention, or whatever were shellacked with a storm surge that was insane. People not taking it seriously enough is the biggest problem. Think about the general population you see on a daily basis. Do most of them seem like they are capable of making a stay or go decision, and the kind of critical thinking it requires. Most people don't honestly even understand what storm surge is really. They'll probably have a better idea after yesterday though. I'm very sad for the loss of life but I know for a fact that many of the people who stayed when they should have left had no idea what exactly they were getting themselves into. Absolutely horrifying to think about but every strong storm like Ian that I know of has accounts of harrowing nightmarish ordeals. And those come from survivors! It's a cliche but nightmarish is the only way to describe what it must be like. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Seeing lots of reports that sanibel is in really bad shape. Toll bridge connecting to the island has significant damage and has collapsed in one section. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 18 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: One of the other weather forum members has lost his/her mother at Sanibel. The causeway to sanibel was taken out. Guess getting there by boat is going to be the only option for a while. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 10 hours ago, StretchCT said: Sorry, but based on official obs, this was a Cat 1. I can't find any obs to support that there was a 30sec sustained wind over 96mph. First off, TC's are classed by winds averaged over 1 min, not 30sec. Which reinforces what I'm about to say. The categorization of tropical storms is ridiculous. I've heard other mets rail on this topic, too, so this is not exactly an original thought. But I'm finally understanding the frustration. And it's two parts really. When hurricane hunters are flying their mission, they use sfmr, flight level winds and dropsondes to measure the wind, which is now the only variable used to categorize. They fly typically a criss cross path through the eye, usually 2-4 times before they have to head back. See spoiler for typical example. Spoiler Typical - cross through, go x miles until winds die, turn on the perimeter, head back in. Aggressive - targeting a specific quadrant. Keeping in mind that the location of the highest winds is always moving, and there may be multiple, or just one, sending a plane into an area the size of CT to find that one wind that they base the category on is like finding a specific piece of sand on a beach, where the wind or water keeps moving the sand. And they do it with dropsonde that is about a foot long that I don't believe even measures one minute winds but reports back spot winds. Alternatively they use SFMR which instead of walking the whole beach area, you're scanning the surface every minute and measuring surface winds. Here too, the winds are 10 seconds, not one minute duration. Plus they get contaminated and in the case with Ian, not used (there were two separate planes measuring 157mph sfmr winds). Then there are flight level winds, which are 30 sec duration and converted by formulas, that seem to vary, to surface level winds. There are times sfmr winds are greater than flight level, but mostly flight level is higher, just not in a consistent manner for a layperson to see a correlation. So the hurricane hunter, on its specific path, covers a very small portion of the overall storm and eyewall, yet we use (again sometimes) these obs to determine the max wind. I always wonder, is that one wind you found really the max wind in the entire storm? The pilots are that lucky? Keep in mind they typically fly fixed patterns and paths, not bobbing and weaving looking for winds on radar to investigate. To be fair, they also use satellite presentation (ADT/Satcon) but these are typically much stronger than what is found by the plane, at least in the developing stages and up to peak. Now hurricane hunters only fly over water. SFMR doesn't work over land (it measures sea spray or something), and you can't drop things from a plane onto someones house or car. Also don't want to risk a plane crash. This leaves land observations and radar observations. Radar observations use the velocity mode of the radar to determine wind speed. Usually this only works if there is precipitation, or something for the radar beam to bounce off of. The problem is that the radar beam stretches outwards at an angle, so that the beam may be hitting anywhere from 500ft to 10,000 feet depending on the distance from the radar. You can calculate that, or use Radarscope, but what does it mean when it's 140mph winds at 8300 feet? How does that translate to the surface? Land observations are the most useful. The National Buoy Data Center is/was a great resource but it's old, there's more busted buoys than functioning and it's primarily coastal driven. Airports are great, but there aren't that many of them. ASOS, CWOP are good too, but I don't think they do 1 minute winds. There also aren't enough of those. Wunderground has the most participants, but citing, equipment and lack of 1 min wind functions make these ineligible. Weatherflow is used by NWS sometimes too, but also struggle with citing and equipment and I think usually measure spot winds. Spoiler has the wind reports from Tampa NWS. I believe these to be gusts, since I know the Punta Gorda 124mph was a gust at the airport. And note the end where they say these are volunteer reports and may not be official. Spoiler NOUS42 KTBW 291236 PNSTBW FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-239-242-248-249-251- 255-260-262-265-300019- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 819 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 ...PRELIMINARY HURRICANE IAN 24-HOUR HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Lat/Lon ...Florida... ...Charlotte County... Punta Gorda 124 MPH 0327 PM 09/28 26.92N/82.00W Grove City 110 MPH 0426 PM 09/28 26.90N/82.31W 1 SW Solana 63 MPH 0143 PM 09/28 26.93N/82.04W ...DeSoto County... Arcadia (WEATHERSTEM) 60 MPH 0430 PM 09/28 27.22N/81.86W ...Hardee County... 0.6 SW Wauchula 69 MPH 0400 PM 09/28 27.54N/81.82W Bowling Green 63 MPH 0946 PM 09/28 27.63N/81.83W ...Hernando County... Brooksville 52 MPH 0806 PM 09/28 28.47N/82.45W ...Highlands County... Fswn Highlands Venus 72 MPH 0700 PM 09/28 27.08N/81.39W Avon Park Af Range 1 69 MPH 0822 PM 09/28 27.60N/81.21W 7.9 W Brighton (WEATHERSTEM) 67 MPH 0840 PM 09/28 27.19N/81.22W Lake Placid (WEATHERSTEM) 66 MPH 0640 PM 09/28 27.29N/81.37W Venus 55 MPH 0550 PM 09/28 27.04N/81.44W ...Hillsborough County... Tampa 75 MPH 0612 PM 09/28 27.97N/82.53W Riverview 75 MPH 0707 PM 09/28 27.87N/82.35W Fswn Alerttampa Downtown 64 MPH 0730 PM 09/28 27.95N/82.45W Fswn Tampa International Air 63 MPH 0920 PM 09/28 27.98N/82.53W Sun City Center 62 MPH 0438 PM 09/28 27.71N/82.36W Macdill AFB Tamp 61 MPH 0631 PM 09/28 27.85N/82.52W Plant City 56 MPH 0827 PM 09/28 27.97N/82.08W Lithia 51 MPH 0545 PM 09/28 27.84N/82.19W Valrico 51 MPH 0855 PM 09/28 27.87N/82.25W 2.4 NW Temple Terrace 45 MPH 0500 PM 09/28 28.06N/82.42W Brandon 45 MPH 0707 PM 09/28 27.91N/82.32W ...Lee County... 3.0 SE Cape Coral 140 MPH 0520 PM 09/28 26.54N/81.95W Tarpon Pt. 109 MPH 0156 PM 09/28 26.54N/82.00W Ding Darling Nwr 98 MPH 0117 PM 09/28 26.44N/82.10W 3.8 SE Estero (WEATHERSTEM) 95 MPH 0530 PM 09/28 26.43N/81.79W Desoto-Orange 78 MPH 0428 PM 09/28 26.67N/81.77W 1 NW Lehigh Acres 44 MPH 0500 PM 09/28 26.62N/81.65W ...Manatee County... Sarasota Bradent 86 MPH 0610 PM 09/28 27.40N/82.57W 1.9 W Bayshore Gardens 59 MPH 0330 PM 09/28 27.44N/82.61W Lakewood Ranch 58 MPH 0745 PM 09/28 27.41N/82.38W ...Pasco County... Zephyrhills Municipal Airpor 52 MPH 0655 PM 09/28 28.23N/82.15W Land o` Lakes 48 MPH 0653 PM 09/28 28.19N/82.52W Big Bear Lake 41 MPH 0808 PM 09/28 28.20N/82.40W ...Pinellas County... St Petersburg - Albert Whitt 77 MPH 0446 PM 09/28 27.77N/82.63W Clearwater Beach 59 MPH 0435 PM 09/28 27.99N/82.83W 1.9 NW Pinellas Park 57 MPH 0510 PM 09/28 27.88N/82.73W Seminole 57 MPH 0515 PM 09/28 27.96N/82.80W Belleair 56 MPH 1116 PM 09/28 27.95N/82.81W Dunedin Causeway 54 MPH 0530 PM 09/28 28.06N/82.81W Treasure Island 45 MPH 0355 PM 09/28 27.77N/82.76W Crystal Beach 45 MPH 0645 PM 09/28 28.10N/82.78W Tarpon Springs 40 MPH 0240 PM 09/28 28.17N/82.79W ...Polk County... Lakeland 78 MPH 0830 PM 09/28 27.96N/81.95W Bartow 76 MPH 0759 PM 09/28 27.88N/81.82W Mulberry 68 MPH 1040 PM 09/28 28.25N/81.65W Griffin 66 MPH 1040 PM 09/28 28.08N/82.04W Frostproof 60 MPH 0937 PM 09/28 27.76N/81.57W Davenport 48 MPH 1001 PM 09/28 28.30N/81.66W Auburndale 43 MPH 1114 PM 09/28 28.13N/81.79W Indian Lake Estates 41 MPH 0907 PM 09/28 27.79N/81.33W Polk City 40 MPH 0439 PM 09/28 28.20N/81.79W ...Sarasota County... Sarasota 75 MPH 0532 PM 09/28 27.35N/82.52W North Port 59 MPH 0400 PM 09/28 27.07N/82.21W Nokomis 56 MPH 0228 PM 09/28 27.13N/82.43W Osprey 47 MPH 0130 PM 09/28 27.19N/82.47W ...Maritime Stations... Sarasota Bay Marker 17 106 MPH 0339 PM 09/28 27.34N/82.56W 1 S Venice 104 MPH 0500 PM 09/28 27.07N/82.45W 6 NNW Bonita Shores 96 MPH 0254 PM 09/28 26.40N/81.88W Tampa Bay Cut J 87 MPH 0614 PM 09/28 27.77N/82.57W New Pass Shoal Light 85 MPH 0454 PM 09/28 27.32N/82.60W Skyway Fishing Pier 75 MPH 0356 PM 09/28 27.60N/82.65W St Pete-Clearwater Int``l 74 MPH 0625 PM 09/28 27.92N/82.68W Old Port Tampa, FL 65 MPH 0742 PM 09/28 27.86N/82.55W Clam Bayou Nature Park 59 MPH 0443 PM 09/28 27.74N/82.69W Clearwater Beach Pier 60 52 MPH 1112 PM 09/28 27.98N/82.83W Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official. Meanwhile, we have two very basic ways to measure a hurricane's strength. Atmospheric pressure and surge. Pressure is by far the easiest. It can be extrapolated easily if not enough stations report, the plane flies through the lowest pressure by using radar to find the circulation center. And if the plane misses the center, it's only off by a few mb and they know they missed the center. Surge is pretty easy too. You have the normal predicted tide, then whatever happens above/below is the surge. Problem here might be lack of stations reporting. There were two yesterday and Naples failed. But alas, they took out the pressure and surge components many years ago when classifying hurricanes. Too confusing. So they based it on 1 minute winds which are meaningless here in the NE as it's the gusts and rainfall that do the damage. And this all makes me wonder, all those historic storms - how did we actually know the wind speeds? 3 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) 19 minutes ago, 1816 said: People not taking it seriously enough is the biggest problem. Think about the general population you see on a daily basis. Do most of them seem like they are capable of making a stay or go decision, and the kind of critical thinking it requires. Most people don't honestly even understand what storm surge is really. They'll probably have a better idea after yesterday though. I'm very sad for the loss of life but I know for a fact that many of the people who stayed when they should have left had no idea what exactly they were getting themselves into. Absolutely horrifying to think about but every strong storm like Ian that I know of has accounts of harrowing nightmarish ordeals. And those come from survivors! It's a cliche but nightmarish is the only way to describe what it must be like. 100% agreed. I'll use Sanibel as an example. Just look at it on a map. It's a barrier island surrounded by water on all sides. When you introduce a storm surge in that situation you're at the mercy of being in a spot that: 1) Holds up structurally. 2) Is high enough in altitude in relation to the ocean to keep you from drowning. The risk of staying doesn't make sense to me. Edited September 29, 2022 by Columbusbuckeye 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) 49 minutes ago, LUCC said: Just an observation/question, why is it that gusts rarely match/reach the recon wind speeds. Ian was 155mph at landfall, any measured winds remotely close? I see 126 as highest..... See my rant following last nights comment a couple of posts before this. Also see spoiler which has the unofficial wind measurements from Tampa NWS. They reported gusts or spot winds. There was a wind of 140mph reported. Spoiler NOUS42 KTBW 291236 PNSTBW FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-239-242-248-249-251- 255-260-262-265-300019- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 819 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 ...PRELIMINARY HURRICANE IAN 24-HOUR HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Lat/Lon ...Florida... ...Charlotte County... Punta Gorda 124 MPH 0327 PM 09/28 26.92N/82.00W Grove City 110 MPH 0426 PM 09/28 26.90N/82.31W 1 SW Solana 63 MPH 0143 PM 09/28 26.93N/82.04W ...DeSoto County... Arcadia (WEATHERSTEM) 60 MPH 0430 PM 09/28 27.22N/81.86W ...Hardee County... 0.6 SW Wauchula 69 MPH 0400 PM 09/28 27.54N/81.82W Bowling Green 63 MPH 0946 PM 09/28 27.63N/81.83W ...Hernando County... Brooksville 52 MPH 0806 PM 09/28 28.47N/82.45W ...Highlands County... Fswn Highlands Venus 72 MPH 0700 PM 09/28 27.08N/81.39W Avon Park Af Range 1 69 MPH 0822 PM 09/28 27.60N/81.21W 7.9 W Brighton (WEATHERSTEM) 67 MPH 0840 PM 09/28 27.19N/81.22W Lake Placid (WEATHERSTEM) 66 MPH 0640 PM 09/28 27.29N/81.37W Venus 55 MPH 0550 PM 09/28 27.04N/81.44W ...Hillsborough County... Tampa 75 MPH 0612 PM 09/28 27.97N/82.53W Riverview 75 MPH 0707 PM 09/28 27.87N/82.35W Fswn Alerttampa Downtown 64 MPH 0730 PM 09/28 27.95N/82.45W Fswn Tampa International Air 63 MPH 0920 PM 09/28 27.98N/82.53W Sun City Center 62 MPH 0438 PM 09/28 27.71N/82.36W Macdill AFB Tamp 61 MPH 0631 PM 09/28 27.85N/82.52W Plant City 56 MPH 0827 PM 09/28 27.97N/82.08W Lithia 51 MPH 0545 PM 09/28 27.84N/82.19W Valrico 51 MPH 0855 PM 09/28 27.87N/82.25W 2.4 NW Temple Terrace 45 MPH 0500 PM 09/28 28.06N/82.42W Brandon 45 MPH 0707 PM 09/28 27.91N/82.32W ...Lee County... 3.0 SE Cape Coral 140 MPH 0520 PM 09/28 26.54N/81.95W Tarpon Pt. 109 MPH 0156 PM 09/28 26.54N/82.00W Ding Darling Nwr 98 MPH 0117 PM 09/28 26.44N/82.10W 3.8 SE Estero (WEATHERSTEM) 95 MPH 0530 PM 09/28 26.43N/81.79W Desoto-Orange 78 MPH 0428 PM 09/28 26.67N/81.77W 1 NW Lehigh Acres 44 MPH 0500 PM 09/28 26.62N/81.65W ...Manatee County... Sarasota Bradent 86 MPH 0610 PM 09/28 27.40N/82.57W 1.9 W Bayshore Gardens 59 MPH 0330 PM 09/28 27.44N/82.61W Lakewood Ranch 58 MPH 0745 PM 09/28 27.41N/82.38W ...Pasco County... Zephyrhills Municipal Airpor 52 MPH 0655 PM 09/28 28.23N/82.15W Land o` Lakes 48 MPH 0653 PM 09/28 28.19N/82.52W Big Bear Lake 41 MPH 0808 PM 09/28 28.20N/82.40W ...Pinellas County... St Petersburg - Albert Whitt 77 MPH 0446 PM 09/28 27.77N/82.63W Clearwater Beach 59 MPH 0435 PM 09/28 27.99N/82.83W 1.9 NW Pinellas Park 57 MPH 0510 PM 09/28 27.88N/82.73W Seminole 57 MPH 0515 PM 09/28 27.96N/82.80W Belleair 56 MPH 1116 PM 09/28 27.95N/82.81W Dunedin Causeway 54 MPH 0530 PM 09/28 28.06N/82.81W Treasure Island 45 MPH 0355 PM 09/28 27.77N/82.76W Crystal Beach 45 MPH 0645 PM 09/28 28.10N/82.78W Tarpon Springs 40 MPH 0240 PM 09/28 28.17N/82.79W ...Polk County... Lakeland 78 MPH 0830 PM 09/28 27.96N/81.95W Bartow 76 MPH 0759 PM 09/28 27.88N/81.82W Mulberry 68 MPH 1040 PM 09/28 28.25N/81.65W Griffin 66 MPH 1040 PM 09/28 28.08N/82.04W Frostproof 60 MPH 0937 PM 09/28 27.76N/81.57W Davenport 48 MPH 1001 PM 09/28 28.30N/81.66W Auburndale 43 MPH 1114 PM 09/28 28.13N/81.79W Indian Lake Estates 41 MPH 0907 PM 09/28 27.79N/81.33W Polk City 40 MPH 0439 PM 09/28 28.20N/81.79W ...Sarasota County... Sarasota 75 MPH 0532 PM 09/28 27.35N/82.52W North Port 59 MPH 0400 PM 09/28 27.07N/82.21W Nokomis 56 MPH 0228 PM 09/28 27.13N/82.43W Osprey 47 MPH 0130 PM 09/28 27.19N/82.47W ...Maritime Stations... Sarasota Bay Marker 17 106 MPH 0339 PM 09/28 27.34N/82.56W 1 S Venice 104 MPH 0500 PM 09/28 27.07N/82.45W 6 NNW Bonita Shores 96 MPH 0254 PM 09/28 26.40N/81.88W Tampa Bay Cut J 87 MPH 0614 PM 09/28 27.77N/82.57W New Pass Shoal Light 85 MPH 0454 PM 09/28 27.32N/82.60W Skyway Fishing Pier 75 MPH 0356 PM 09/28 27.60N/82.65W St Pete-Clearwater Int``l 74 MPH 0625 PM 09/28 27.92N/82.68W Old Port Tampa, FL 65 MPH 0742 PM 09/28 27.86N/82.55W Clam Bayou Nature Park 59 MPH 0443 PM 09/28 27.74N/82.69W Clearwater Beach Pier 60 52 MPH 1112 PM 09/28 27.98N/82.83W Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official. Edited September 29, 2022 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) Basic human nature really works against our best interests in situations like this. Folks who have spent time in Florida are used to hurricanes. The vast majority of the time they are a nonevent for most. The disruption they face in their lives from leaving for a few days generally outweighs the chances they've saved themselves. A distrust of government from the poor policies of the past couple years doesn't help. It's The Boy Who Cried "Wolf." Also, modern technology can give a false sense of security. Models that show the storm going into an area far away from you can make you too comfortable. By the time you realize the storm is coming into your lap, it's too late. (However, the worst is close to shore where landfall happens: just driving east a ways could be lifesaving. Staying at a friend's house on the other side of town could be the difference between a really bad day and death.) Now add in the natural curiosity of wanting to see what it's actually like. You know there is a little Morgerman or Timmer or Hank in each of us. There's only one way to satisfy that curiosity. Unfortunately, the cat is not the only thing curiosity killed. Edited September 29, 2022 by Tater Missed a critical word in the last sentence 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, StretchCT said: See my rant following last nights comment. Also see spoiler which has the unofficial wind measurements from Tampa NWS. They reported gusts or spot winds. There was a wind of 140mph reported. Reveal hidden contents NOUS42 KTBW 291236 PNSTBW FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-239-242-248-249-251- 255-260-262-265-300019- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 819 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 ...PRELIMINARY HURRICANE IAN 24-HOUR HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Lat/Lon ...Florida... ...Charlotte County... Punta Gorda 124 MPH 0327 PM 09/28 26.92N/82.00W Grove City 110 MPH 0426 PM 09/28 26.90N/82.31W 1 SW Solana 63 MPH 0143 PM 09/28 26.93N/82.04W ...DeSoto County... Arcadia (WEATHERSTEM) 60 MPH 0430 PM 09/28 27.22N/81.86W ...Hardee County... 0.6 SW Wauchula 69 MPH 0400 PM 09/28 27.54N/81.82W Bowling Green 63 MPH 0946 PM 09/28 27.63N/81.83W ...Hernando County... Brooksville 52 MPH 0806 PM 09/28 28.47N/82.45W ...Highlands County... Fswn Highlands Venus 72 MPH 0700 PM 09/28 27.08N/81.39W Avon Park Af Range 1 69 MPH 0822 PM 09/28 27.60N/81.21W 7.9 W Brighton (WEATHERSTEM) 67 MPH 0840 PM 09/28 27.19N/81.22W Lake Placid (WEATHERSTEM) 66 MPH 0640 PM 09/28 27.29N/81.37W Venus 55 MPH 0550 PM 09/28 27.04N/81.44W ...Hillsborough County... Tampa 75 MPH 0612 PM 09/28 27.97N/82.53W Riverview 75 MPH 0707 PM 09/28 27.87N/82.35W Fswn Alerttampa Downtown 64 MPH 0730 PM 09/28 27.95N/82.45W Fswn Tampa International Air 63 MPH 0920 PM 09/28 27.98N/82.53W Sun City Center 62 MPH 0438 PM 09/28 27.71N/82.36W Macdill AFB Tamp 61 MPH 0631 PM 09/28 27.85N/82.52W Plant City 56 MPH 0827 PM 09/28 27.97N/82.08W Lithia 51 MPH 0545 PM 09/28 27.84N/82.19W Valrico 51 MPH 0855 PM 09/28 27.87N/82.25W 2.4 NW Temple Terrace 45 MPH 0500 PM 09/28 28.06N/82.42W Brandon 45 MPH 0707 PM 09/28 27.91N/82.32W ...Lee County... 3.0 SE Cape Coral 140 MPH 0520 PM 09/28 26.54N/81.95W Tarpon Pt. 109 MPH 0156 PM 09/28 26.54N/82.00W Ding Darling Nwr 98 MPH 0117 PM 09/28 26.44N/82.10W 3.8 SE Estero (WEATHERSTEM) 95 MPH 0530 PM 09/28 26.43N/81.79W Desoto-Orange 78 MPH 0428 PM 09/28 26.67N/81.77W 1 NW Lehigh Acres 44 MPH 0500 PM 09/28 26.62N/81.65W ...Manatee County... Sarasota Bradent 86 MPH 0610 PM 09/28 27.40N/82.57W 1.9 W Bayshore Gardens 59 MPH 0330 PM 09/28 27.44N/82.61W Lakewood Ranch 58 MPH 0745 PM 09/28 27.41N/82.38W ...Pasco County... Zephyrhills Municipal Airpor 52 MPH 0655 PM 09/28 28.23N/82.15W Land o` Lakes 48 MPH 0653 PM 09/28 28.19N/82.52W Big Bear Lake 41 MPH 0808 PM 09/28 28.20N/82.40W ...Pinellas County... St Petersburg - Albert Whitt 77 MPH 0446 PM 09/28 27.77N/82.63W Clearwater Beach 59 MPH 0435 PM 09/28 27.99N/82.83W 1.9 NW Pinellas Park 57 MPH 0510 PM 09/28 27.88N/82.73W Seminole 57 MPH 0515 PM 09/28 27.96N/82.80W Belleair 56 MPH 1116 PM 09/28 27.95N/82.81W Dunedin Causeway 54 MPH 0530 PM 09/28 28.06N/82.81W Treasure Island 45 MPH 0355 PM 09/28 27.77N/82.76W Crystal Beach 45 MPH 0645 PM 09/28 28.10N/82.78W Tarpon Springs 40 MPH 0240 PM 09/28 28.17N/82.79W ...Polk County... Lakeland 78 MPH 0830 PM 09/28 27.96N/81.95W Bartow 76 MPH 0759 PM 09/28 27.88N/81.82W Mulberry 68 MPH 1040 PM 09/28 28.25N/81.65W Griffin 66 MPH 1040 PM 09/28 28.08N/82.04W Frostproof 60 MPH 0937 PM 09/28 27.76N/81.57W Davenport 48 MPH 1001 PM 09/28 28.30N/81.66W Auburndale 43 MPH 1114 PM 09/28 28.13N/81.79W Indian Lake Estates 41 MPH 0907 PM 09/28 27.79N/81.33W Polk City 40 MPH 0439 PM 09/28 28.20N/81.79W ...Sarasota County... Sarasota 75 MPH 0532 PM 09/28 27.35N/82.52W North Port 59 MPH 0400 PM 09/28 27.07N/82.21W Nokomis 56 MPH 0228 PM 09/28 27.13N/82.43W Osprey 47 MPH 0130 PM 09/28 27.19N/82.47W ...Maritime Stations... Sarasota Bay Marker 17 106 MPH 0339 PM 09/28 27.34N/82.56W 1 S Venice 104 MPH 0500 PM 09/28 27.07N/82.45W 6 NNW Bonita Shores 96 MPH 0254 PM 09/28 26.40N/81.88W Tampa Bay Cut J 87 MPH 0614 PM 09/28 27.77N/82.57W New Pass Shoal Light 85 MPH 0454 PM 09/28 27.32N/82.60W Skyway Fishing Pier 75 MPH 0356 PM 09/28 27.60N/82.65W St Pete-Clearwater Int``l 74 MPH 0625 PM 09/28 27.92N/82.68W Old Port Tampa, FL 65 MPH 0742 PM 09/28 27.86N/82.55W Clam Bayou Nature Park 59 MPH 0443 PM 09/28 27.74N/82.69W Clearwater Beach Pier 60 52 MPH 1112 PM 09/28 27.98N/82.83W Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official. I saw, very informative, I was playing catch up and just posted a reply prior to seeing all of your posts. There was a gust/wind of 140 in Lee county that I saw from your post, highest I've seen thus far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 Quite a few gauges recording major flooding. Some are going to be records. Are they still growing crops there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) Never seen so much lightning in an eye Edited September 29, 2022 by StretchCT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 19 minutes ago, StretchCT said: First off, TC's are classed by winds averaged over 1 min, not 30sec. Which reinforces what I'm about to say. The categorization of tropical storms is ridiculous. I've heard other mets rail on this topic, too, so this is not exactly an original thought. But I'm finally understanding the frustration. And it's two parts really. When hurricane hunters are flying their mission, they use sfmr, flight level winds and dropsondes to measure the wind, which is now the only variable used to categorize. They fly typically a criss cross path through the eye, usually 2-4 times before they have to head back. See spoiler for typical example. Reveal hidden contents Typical - cross through, go x miles until winds die, turn on the perimeter, head back in. Aggressive - targeting a specific quadrant. Keeping in mind that the location of the highest winds is always moving, and there may be multiple, or just one, sending a plane into an area the size of CT to find that one wind that they base the category on is like finding a specific piece of sand on a beach, where the wind or water keeps moving the sand. And they do it with dropsonde that is about a foot long that I don't believe even measures one minute winds but reports back spot winds. Alternatively they use SFMR which instead of walking the whole beach area, you're scanning the surface every minute and measuring surface winds. Here too, the winds are 10 seconds, not one minute duration. Plus they get contaminated and in the case with Ian, not used (there were two separate planes measuring 157mph sfmr winds). Then there are flight level winds, which are 30 sec duration and converted by formulas, that seem to vary, to surface level winds. There are times sfmr winds are greater than flight level, but mostly flight level is higher, just not in a consistent manner for a layperson to see a correlation. So the hurricane hunter, on its specific path, covers a very small portion of the overall storm and eyewall, yet we use (again sometimes) these obs to determine the max wind. I always wonder, is that one wind you found really the max wind in the entire storm? The pilots are that lucky? Keep in mind they typically fly fixed patterns and paths, not bobbing and weaving looking for winds on radar to investigate. To be fair, they also use satellite presentation (ADT/Satcon) but these are typically much stronger than what is found by the plane, at least in the developing stages and up to peak. Now hurricane hunters only fly over water. SFMR doesn't work over land (it measures sea spray or something), and you can't drop things from a plane onto someones house or car. Also don't want to risk a plane crash. This leaves land observations and radar observations. Radar observations use the velocity mode of the radar to determine wind speed. Usually this only works if there is precipitation, or something for the radar beam to bounce off of. The problem is that the radar beam stretches outwards at an angle, so that the beam may be hitting anywhere from 500ft to 10,000 feet depending on the distance from the radar. You can calculate that, or use Radarscope, but what does it mean when it's 140mph winds at 8300 feet? How does that translate to the surface? Land observations are the most useful. The National Buoy Data Center is/was a great resource but it's old, there's more busted buoys than functioning and it's primarily coastal driven. Airports are great, but there aren't that many of them. ASOS, CWOP are good too, but I don't think they do 1 minute winds. There also aren't enough of those. Wunderground has the most participants, but citing, equipment and lack of 1 min wind functions make these ineligible. Weatherflow is used by NWS sometimes too, but also struggle with citing and equipment and I think usually measure spot winds. Spoiler has the wind reports from Tampa NWS. I believe these to be gusts, since I know the Punta Gorda 124mph was a gust at the airport. And note the end where they say these are volunteer reports and may not be official. Reveal hidden contents NOUS42 KTBW 291236 PNSTBW FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-239-242-248-249-251- 255-260-262-265-300019- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 819 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 ...PRELIMINARY HURRICANE IAN 24-HOUR HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Lat/Lon ...Florida... ...Charlotte County... Punta Gorda 124 MPH 0327 PM 09/28 26.92N/82.00W Grove City 110 MPH 0426 PM 09/28 26.90N/82.31W 1 SW Solana 63 MPH 0143 PM 09/28 26.93N/82.04W ...DeSoto County... Arcadia (WEATHERSTEM) 60 MPH 0430 PM 09/28 27.22N/81.86W ...Hardee County... 0.6 SW Wauchula 69 MPH 0400 PM 09/28 27.54N/81.82W Bowling Green 63 MPH 0946 PM 09/28 27.63N/81.83W ...Hernando County... Brooksville 52 MPH 0806 PM 09/28 28.47N/82.45W ...Highlands County... Fswn Highlands Venus 72 MPH 0700 PM 09/28 27.08N/81.39W Avon Park Af Range 1 69 MPH 0822 PM 09/28 27.60N/81.21W 7.9 W Brighton (WEATHERSTEM) 67 MPH 0840 PM 09/28 27.19N/81.22W Lake Placid (WEATHERSTEM) 66 MPH 0640 PM 09/28 27.29N/81.37W Venus 55 MPH 0550 PM 09/28 27.04N/81.44W ...Hillsborough County... Tampa 75 MPH 0612 PM 09/28 27.97N/82.53W Riverview 75 MPH 0707 PM 09/28 27.87N/82.35W Fswn Alerttampa Downtown 64 MPH 0730 PM 09/28 27.95N/82.45W Fswn Tampa International Air 63 MPH 0920 PM 09/28 27.98N/82.53W Sun City Center 62 MPH 0438 PM 09/28 27.71N/82.36W Macdill AFB Tamp 61 MPH 0631 PM 09/28 27.85N/82.52W Plant City 56 MPH 0827 PM 09/28 27.97N/82.08W Lithia 51 MPH 0545 PM 09/28 27.84N/82.19W Valrico 51 MPH 0855 PM 09/28 27.87N/82.25W 2.4 NW Temple Terrace 45 MPH 0500 PM 09/28 28.06N/82.42W Brandon 45 MPH 0707 PM 09/28 27.91N/82.32W ...Lee County... 3.0 SE Cape Coral 140 MPH 0520 PM 09/28 26.54N/81.95W Tarpon Pt. 109 MPH 0156 PM 09/28 26.54N/82.00W Ding Darling Nwr 98 MPH 0117 PM 09/28 26.44N/82.10W 3.8 SE Estero (WEATHERSTEM) 95 MPH 0530 PM 09/28 26.43N/81.79W Desoto-Orange 78 MPH 0428 PM 09/28 26.67N/81.77W 1 NW Lehigh Acres 44 MPH 0500 PM 09/28 26.62N/81.65W ...Manatee County... Sarasota Bradent 86 MPH 0610 PM 09/28 27.40N/82.57W 1.9 W Bayshore Gardens 59 MPH 0330 PM 09/28 27.44N/82.61W Lakewood Ranch 58 MPH 0745 PM 09/28 27.41N/82.38W ...Pasco County... Zephyrhills Municipal Airpor 52 MPH 0655 PM 09/28 28.23N/82.15W Land o` Lakes 48 MPH 0653 PM 09/28 28.19N/82.52W Big Bear Lake 41 MPH 0808 PM 09/28 28.20N/82.40W ...Pinellas County... St Petersburg - Albert Whitt 77 MPH 0446 PM 09/28 27.77N/82.63W Clearwater Beach 59 MPH 0435 PM 09/28 27.99N/82.83W 1.9 NW Pinellas Park 57 MPH 0510 PM 09/28 27.88N/82.73W Seminole 57 MPH 0515 PM 09/28 27.96N/82.80W Belleair 56 MPH 1116 PM 09/28 27.95N/82.81W Dunedin Causeway 54 MPH 0530 PM 09/28 28.06N/82.81W Treasure Island 45 MPH 0355 PM 09/28 27.77N/82.76W Crystal Beach 45 MPH 0645 PM 09/28 28.10N/82.78W Tarpon Springs 40 MPH 0240 PM 09/28 28.17N/82.79W ...Polk County... Lakeland 78 MPH 0830 PM 09/28 27.96N/81.95W Bartow 76 MPH 0759 PM 09/28 27.88N/81.82W Mulberry 68 MPH 1040 PM 09/28 28.25N/81.65W Griffin 66 MPH 1040 PM 09/28 28.08N/82.04W Frostproof 60 MPH 0937 PM 09/28 27.76N/81.57W Davenport 48 MPH 1001 PM 09/28 28.30N/81.66W Auburndale 43 MPH 1114 PM 09/28 28.13N/81.79W Indian Lake Estates 41 MPH 0907 PM 09/28 27.79N/81.33W Polk City 40 MPH 0439 PM 09/28 28.20N/81.79W ...Sarasota County... Sarasota 75 MPH 0532 PM 09/28 27.35N/82.52W North Port 59 MPH 0400 PM 09/28 27.07N/82.21W Nokomis 56 MPH 0228 PM 09/28 27.13N/82.43W Osprey 47 MPH 0130 PM 09/28 27.19N/82.47W ...Maritime Stations... Sarasota Bay Marker 17 106 MPH 0339 PM 09/28 27.34N/82.56W 1 S Venice 104 MPH 0500 PM 09/28 27.07N/82.45W 6 NNW Bonita Shores 96 MPH 0254 PM 09/28 26.40N/81.88W Tampa Bay Cut J 87 MPH 0614 PM 09/28 27.77N/82.57W New Pass Shoal Light 85 MPH 0454 PM 09/28 27.32N/82.60W Skyway Fishing Pier 75 MPH 0356 PM 09/28 27.60N/82.65W St Pete-Clearwater Int``l 74 MPH 0625 PM 09/28 27.92N/82.68W Old Port Tampa, FL 65 MPH 0742 PM 09/28 27.86N/82.55W Clam Bayou Nature Park 59 MPH 0443 PM 09/28 27.74N/82.69W Clearwater Beach Pier 60 52 MPH 1112 PM 09/28 27.98N/82.83W Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official. Meanwhile, we have two very basic ways to measure a hurricane's strength. Atmospheric pressure and surge. Pressure is by far the easiest. It can be extrapolated easily if not enough stations report, the plane flies through the lowest pressure by using radar to find the circulation center. And if the plane misses the center, it's only off by a few mb and they know they missed the center. Surge is pretty easy too. You have the normal predicted tide, then whatever happens above/below is the surge. Problem here might be lack of stations reporting. There were two yesterday and Naples failed. But alas, they took out the pressure and surge components many years ago when classifying hurricanes. Too confusing. So they based it on 1 minute winds which are meaningless here in the NE as it's the gusts and rainfall that do the damage. And this all makes me wonder, all those historic storms - how did we actually know the wind speeds? Agree with a lot of the points here and good write up. It would seem that equipment needs to be made that can truly measure wind speed for the same time period used for ratings. Again, a complex problem and not sure how to fix it. Like many problems of the world if it was easy it would be fixed! I think more education to the public needs to go into the effects of storm surge and what that means to people that stay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) Agreed big time with you @StretchCT number one killer is surge and second is flooding. The winds, while dangerous aren’t going to kill most, and the biggest threat under 100 is power lines. I assume most buildings after Andrew in 92 are built a bit stronger. I don’t think there is a good way to save everyone. If I was watching this storm and lived in any of those surge areas, I’d be prepared leave. I guess it was hard he was slow moving and turned right and they ran out of time to get out of the way. edit: Also we are all weather nerds and I think as curious as most of us are we understand what worst case could be and is life threatening. I’m guilty, I climb in the NE in the winter. Many have died on Washington most underprepared. We’ve turned back exhausted and couldn’t see in fog, gone up in a storm with 60-75mph and blowing snow/rime ice and been up there on a wonderful blue sky day! Some of us just want to experience Mother Nature kicking our butts. Edited September 29, 2022 by TLChip 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 36 minutes ago, Tater said: Basic human nature really works against our best interests in situations like this. Folks who have spent time in Florida are used to hurricanes. The vast majority of the time they are a nonevent for most. The disruption they face in their lives from leaving for a few days generally outweighs the chances they've saved themselves. A distrust of government from the poor policies of the past couple years doesn't help. It's The Boy Who Cried "Wolf." Also, modern technology can give a false sense of security. Models that show the storm going into an area far away from you can make you too comfortable. By the time you realize the storm is coming into your lap, it's too late. (However, the worst is close to shore where landfall happens: just driving east a ways could be lifesaving. Staying at a friend's house on the other side of town could be the difference between a really bad day and death.) Now add in the natural curiosity of wanting to see what it's actually like. You know there is a little Morgerman or Timmer or Hank in each of us. There's only one way to satisfy that curiosity. Unfortunately, the cat is not the only thing curiosity killed. Its natural to be curious. I would be too. But if you want to see what wind, just wind alone and no debris or water can do to you, look at this video. Yes Cantore is a show boat and all that, but just look at the toll it takes on him, even with the assistance of being held in place. Now imagine not having that assistance and with water and debris coming at you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Aaron Rigsby confirming multiple fatalities on the Fort Myers Beach come across. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) 35 minutes ago, clm said: Its natural to be curious. I would be too. But if you want to see what wind, just wind alone and no debris or water can do to you, look at this video. Yes Cantore is a show boat and all that, but just look at the toll it takes on him, even with the assistance of being held in place. Now imagine not having that assistance and with water and debris coming at you. There you go with logic and reason. Using those usually comes right after you say, "Oops, that was really dumb." (Edit: or right after your wife asks "What were you thinking?!!!") Most don't plan to be directly exposed. They think they are sheltered well enough. It's when their shelter proves inadequate that they win the Darwin award. Edited September 29, 2022 by Tater 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 Major hurricanes to hit FL in last 100 years. If what that sheriff in Lee County says is true, it would be the deadliest hurricane since 1935. Spoiler Hurricane Deaths Year Irma 84 2017 Michael 43 2018 Wilma 30 2005 Dennis 4 2005 Jeanne 3 2004 Ivan 14 2004 opal 1 1995 Andrew 44 1992 Elena 3 1985 Eloise 4 1975 Alma 6 1966 Betsy 5 1965 Donna 14 1960 King 4 1950 Easy 2 1950 Unnamed 2 1949 Unnamed 13 1948 Fort Lauderdale 51 1947 Homestead 26 1945 Cuba FL 18 1944 Labor Day 488 1935 Unnamed 0 1933 Okeechobee 2500 1928 Great Miami 342+ 1926 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 29, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 29, 2022 This too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 291500 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 The center of Ian has emerged into the western Atlantic Ocean to the north of Cape Canaveral. While satellite images show the system is becoming a hybrid cyclone, with frontal features outside of the core of Ian, the winds from multiple sources are notable. Velocity data from NWS Doppler radar indicate maximum winds of about 70-75 kt at 10,000 ft over land, and sustained winds of about 55 kt were recorded in the Daytona Beach area earlier this morning. These data support a higher initial intensity, now 60 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving northeastward at about 8 kt. Ian has stubbornly gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days and has moved back over water faster than expected. A mid-level shortwave trough moving southward across the southern United States should turn Ian northward overnight and north-northwestward on Saturday. The official track forecast is shifted to the east, consistent with the latest consensus guidance. Ian should move over the Gulf Stream tonight and tomorrow for a longer period of time than previously anticipated, which should maintain Ian's central convection. Additionally, an increased pressure gradient on the northwestern side from a stationary front near the southeastern US, should provide a boost to the wind speeds on that side of the storm. We now expect Ian to become a hurricane again by this evening. As the system approaches South Carolina, Ian should maintain this intensity, and Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the entire coast of South Carolina. This scenario is consistent with the global and regional hurricane model guidance. It is worth noting that Ian is forecast to have atypical structure when it nears the southeastern United States, and strong winds will extend well ahead of the center, even on the northwestern side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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