Meteorologist Ingyball Posted September 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 24, 2022 You can see how unstacked this is on the dropsonde. The surface center is probably a bit northeast of the 850 one. With shear lower it shouldn't take too long to get stacked as long as convection continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted September 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 24, 2022 Looks like NHC did some guesstimating and went 14.2 for the latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 24, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 24, 2022 Love the detail in the low sun angle shots. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 24, 2022 Author Share Posted September 24, 2022 Recon has found lower pressure, but the LLC they found earlier seems to be gone and may have reformed deeper into the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 24, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 24, 2022 Storm covers the height(?) of the Caribbean. Haiti to Venezuela 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Storm covers the height(?) of the Caribbean. Haiti to Venezuela 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 24, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 24, 2022 Ash band with lightning. Good outflow getting established. I added the lightning to try and get a sense of thunderstorm motion within the CDO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 24, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 24, 2022 UKMET ensemble tracks. Experimental GFS tracks with intensity. Both are cat 4, hopefully it's not nearly this strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 24, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 24, 2022 Some of the more often cited model's tracks. http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2022&storm=09&display=google_map&latestrun=1 For descriptions of the models, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 24, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 24, 2022 Looks like outflow in all directions to me. ADT putting the center to the eastside of the eastern convection. Wondering if that changes soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Looks like favorable conditions for at least the next 48-72 hours... Wonder how fast Ian will intensify? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, TLChip said: Looks like favorable conditions for at least the next 48-72 hours... Wonder how fast Ian will intensify? Man that track. Huge narrow escape for Cuba but he will remain unperturbed. Flip sides of the coin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, 1816 said: Man that track. Huge narrow escape for Cuba but he will remain unperturbed. Flip sides of the coin. Good for the islands, bad for CONUS. Still some island areas will get hammered with a track that close and no weakening. Edited September 24, 2022 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 24, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 24, 2022 Decent odds that there is 25kt increase in next 24 hrs. Really strong odds that it increases 65kts in 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 24, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 24, 2022 ADT saw something to make the raw T jump. Constraint limit discussed in the spoiler - basically if the raw t is increasing too fast, it puts the brakes on it via the adj/final T# Spoiler F.) Constraint Limits (Dvorak EIR Rule 😎 The ADT limits the magnitude of intensity change between estimates based on a modification to the SDT EIR Rule 8 which constrains the rate of increase or decrease of the Raw T# intensity estimate (value initially determined by the scene type and/or regression analyses, and before any rules or adjustments are applied) based upon specified rates of change over designated time periods. The rate of change checks are performed against the Final T# (after rule adjustments and time averaging described later) values stored in the history file for times prior to the current analysis time. The rate of change allowance is dependent upon the current intensity of the storm, as defined in the Dvorak EIR technique (Dvorak 1984). The Final T# value of the record immediately prior to the current analysis time is used as the current intensity estimate. When the intensity of the storm is less than T4.0, the current Raw T# rate of change cannot exceed 0.5 T# over 6 hours. If greater or equal to T4.0, the rate of change of the Raw T# value cannot exceed the following rates: 1.0 over 6 hours, 1.5 over 12 hours, 2.0 over 18 hours, and/or 2.5 over 24 hours. The ADT also employs a modified version of this rule based upon the current scene type analyzed: The allowable rate of change is reduced by 0.5 during most non-Eye scene types (Curved Band, CDO, Embedded Center), so that the amount of change is limited to 0.5/1.0/1.5/2.0 T# over 6/12/18/24 hours. For Eye scenes the amount of allowed change is increased by 0.5 to 1.5/2.0/2.5/3.0 T# over 6/12/18/24 hours. The latter modification allows the Final T#/CI# to increase at a quick enough and realistic rate during “rapid intensification” events. For Shear scenes, the rate of change rule is unmodified from the original SDT EIR Rule 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 50 minutes ago, TLChip said: Looks like favorable conditions for at least the next 48-72 hours... Wonder how fast Ian will intensify? That's hurricane strengthen soup!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 24, 2022 Really cool temperature pattern caused by the hurricane meeting with the cold front 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 24, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 24, 2022 Hour old microwave is a bit inconclusive, but does show pretty good convection on the east side. If one argued it looks like it's "curling" a bit, I wouldn't be one to disagree wholely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 24, 2022 NHC forecast is approaching peak of Category 4. Currently has 130 mph for a 24 hour period before weakening prior to landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted September 24, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 24, 2022 (edited) I'll try to take the reigns and post some updates tonight. Like always - I'm on midnights and it's a never ending period of quiet weather here. Edited September 25, 2022 by MidwestWX 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 25, 2022 Author Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 hour ago, MidwestWX said: I'll try to take the reigns and post some updates tonight. Like always - I'm in midnights and it's a never ending period of quiet weather here. Can you be part of the Night Shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 25, 2022 (edited) I'm ashamed to admit I didn't get this tweet for like 5 seconds. I even have Twitter notify me with his every tweet. Edited September 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Looks sorta like it’s starting to center with its diurnal bout of strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 0z hurricane models continue diwn the western edge of cone into pan handle area 0z intensity is growing scarier huge cluster at ca4 / low end 5 before landfall. im not a big sound the alarm type of guy but this is headed in all the wrong directions as trends we’d like to see go. So maybe sounan alarm or too just so people at least prepare in the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 (edited) tracking over and stalling a bit over pure pure rocket fuel to the northwest coast of cuba where the mountains are not as influential is going to cause som RI and some phase of and we see an erc id imagine. Edited September 25, 2022 by Poco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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