Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Yeah you're right, my memory failed me. I thought it was further inland than that. I should've looked back. I agree, seems like friction is at least plausible.  

No worries regardless this amount of lightning is not what we have typically seen. Maybe we are actually able to finally get a good glimpse in hurricane intensification not seen other than localized reports and flight path. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

"BLUE SKY...THERE IT IS"

 

Never have gotten to experience this before but pretty crazy to see how things calm down and ramp up near the eyewall.

[ClicheVortex2014]

8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

No worries regardless this amount of lightning is not what we have typically seen. Maybe we are actually able to finally get a good glimpse in hurricane intensification not seen other than localized reports and flight path. 

Seems like a perfect setup for this kind of phenomenon with respect to hurricanes. Same with Ian being seemingly hellbent on channeling storm surge into Charlotte Bay. 

Still don't really know the full extent of the area surrounding that bay, but man, I can't imagine if it were to happen to Tampa as some models were showing a few days ago. 

Edited September 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Seems like a perfect setup for this kind of phenomenon. Same with Ian being seemingly hellbent on channeling storm surge into Charlotte Bay. 

Still don't really know the full extent of the area surrounding that bay, but man, I can't imagine if it were to happen to Tampa as some models were showing a few days ago. 

Yea im not too familiar with that region but I feel Tampa would be raged on just as bad a port charlotte. I honestly don't know of a hurricane/ major coming in from the south or south west into areas just north of Tampa which would be the most impactful given the way the bay is setup. It would have to have one heck of a recurve and probably by that weaken the system so that it would go down to cat 1/2 status. Total guesses of course but from what I have seen over the years it seems like simply SW FL ( FT Myers area) and the peninsula are the go to for hurricanes. Areas in between tend to escape the onslaught.

[Tater]

30 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Sorry, but based on official obs, this was a Cat 1. I can't find any obs to support that there was a 30sec sustained wind over 96mph.  

Some Buoys - if you went by these, it was a Cat 1

Big Carlos Pass   Bonita Springs topped off at 69.9 kts sustained and 94kt gust.  So near 110mph.

Station RKXF1 - Upper Henderson Creek, Rookery Bay south of Naples  topped off at 27kts.  Not sure how that's possible but ok.

Station FMRF1 Fort Meyers came in at 50kts sustained and 70kt gust.  

Venice  came in at 71kts sus and 90 gust. 

Station 42013 off shore of Venice maxed out at 52.4kts sus and 70kts gust.  It failed around 6pm.

Station 42097 Pulley Ridge had waves of 27 feet. 

Airports:  if you went by these, it's still a Cat 1

Punta Gorda 86/123 mph

Ft Myers, Page Field 31/50 (went offline before noon)

Ft Myers, SW FL Int'l 62/97 (went offline around 4pm)

Naples Muni  41/62 (went offline around 11am)

Sarasota 47/82 

The Fort Myers water level was 7 feet above normal, which in the old days was a Cat 2 storm. 

Now of course most of the stations aren't reporting anymore.... so maybe we'll get the official winds from NWS soon. 

I noticed too that reported wind speeds on land didn't seem to support Cat 4. The palm trees held on to a lot of their leaves also. I don't know what it takes to strip them bare, but I know other places with major hurricanes have had forests looking like NE deciduous winter forests rather than the evergreen tropics.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Sorry, but based on official obs, this was a Cat 1. I can't find any obs to support that there was a 30sec sustained wind over 96mph.  

Some Buoys - if you went by these, it was a Cat 1

Big Carlos Pass   Bonita Springs topped off at 69.9 kts sustained and 94kt gust.  So near 110mph.

Station RKXF1 - Upper Henderson Creek, Rookery Bay south of Naples  topped off at 27kts.  Not sure how that's possible but ok.

Station FMRF1 Fort Meyers came in at 50kts sustained and 70kt gust.  

Venice  came in at 71kts sus and 90 gust. 

Station 42013 off shore of Venice maxed out at 52.4kts sus and 70kts gust.  It failed around 6pm.

Station 42097 Pulley Ridge had waves of 27 feet. 

Airports:  if you went by these, it's still a Cat 1

Punta Gorda 86/123 mph

Ft Myers, Page Field 31/50 (went offline before noon)

Ft Myers, SW FL Int'l 62/97 (went offline around 4pm)

Naples Muni  41/62 (went offline around 11am)

Sarasota 47/82 

The Fort Myers water level was 7 feet above normal, which in the old days was a Cat 2 storm. 

Now of course most of the stations aren't reporting anymore.... so maybe we'll get the official winds from NWS soon. 

It looks like ASOS can handle upwards of 125 knots of wind. Im not sure some of this older equipment can handle that considering the ASOS program is rather old and many go off of old equipment. Considering most of the stations are offline tells me they reached a certain threshold.

Some videos out there look like localized areas of palm trees were stripped of fronds, namely around Ft Myers. So maybe we managed to strong Cat2 to weak cat 3 sustained in those regions with gusts up to cat 4 strength mixed in. 

It just goes to show how lucky they were that this didn't move slower and stay over water longer. It was really starting to get its act together going to landfall.

[so_whats_happening]

It looks like Ian will be over the coastal areas of Eastern FL potentially back in the Atlantic by daybreak. The structure is still pretty intact so we may go briefly to TS status and then back to Cat 1 tomorrow afternoon.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Shear is definitely introducing itself to Ian. Won't be surprised to see re-intensification to category 1 either because it'll be moving into the Gulf stream and because the of one thing that may explain why Ian seemingly unexpectedly rapidly intensified overnight: it was in the right-entrance region of the Northeastern US jet streak.

(Right entrance region and left exit region of a jet streak favors upper-level divergence aka surface low pressure development)

 

Source: https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/100

Edited September 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Shear is definitely introducing itself to Ian. Won't be surprised to see re-intensification to category 1 either because it'll be moving into the Gulf stream and because the of one thing that may explain why Ian seemingly unexpectedly rapidly intensified overnight: it was in the right-entrance region of the Northeastern US jet streak.

(Right entrance region and left exit region of a jet streak favors upper-level divergence aka surface low pressure development)

 

Source: https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/100

Yea seems like it has a funky occlusion look to it. Definitely a hybrid system at this point with a slight kick to being warm core.

[so_whats_happening]

Im not entirely sure what is happening just north of the circulation with the reds and oranges moving NE but nice little vortex still.

[ClicheVortex2014]

26 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Im not entirely sure what is happening just north of the circulation with the reds and oranges moving NE but nice little vortex still.

Yeah I'd love to know what the hell is going on there. I'm sure the super-smart people will take their crack at it in the next few years.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Worth mentioning: Ian was much larger and slower than Charley. 

Size comparison

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[1816]

4 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Sorry, but based on official obs, this was a Cat 1. I can't find any obs to support that there was a 30sec sustained wind over 96mph.  

Some Buoys - if you went by these, it was a Cat 1

Big Carlos Pass   Bonita Springs topped off at 69.9 kts sustained and 94kt gust.  So near 110mph.

Station RKXF1 - Upper Henderson Creek, Rookery Bay south of Naples  topped off at 27kts.  Not sure how that's possible but ok.

Station FMRF1 Fort Meyers came in at 50kts sustained and 70kt gust.  

Venice  came in at 71kts sus and 90 gust. 

Station 42013 off shore of Venice maxed out at 52.4kts sus and 70kts gust.  It failed around 6pm.

Station 42097 Pulley Ridge had waves of 27 feet. 

Airports:  if you went by these, it's still a Cat 1

Punta Gorda 86/123 mph

Ft Myers, Page Field 31/50 (went offline before noon)

Ft Myers, SW FL Int'l 62/97 (went offline around 4pm)

Naples Muni  41/62 (went offline around 11am)

Sarasota 47/82 

The Fort Myers water level was 7 feet above normal, which in the old days was a Cat 2 storm. 

Now of course most of the stations aren't reporting anymore.... so maybe we'll get the official winds from NWS soon. 

No sir. No way No how. 

[FortySixAnd32]

6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

 

 

That sound is horrifying....

[1816]

Thought this was pretty cool

 

[junior]

My dads side of the family right under the banding in Orlando into Deltona. Looks like they will get over a foot of rain. Florida soil can take it though. I’d be more concerned of sink holes with all them underground limestone rivers. 

[TLChip]

@StretchCT I think of Maria/Irma smashing the Atlantic islands at Cat 5 (175+). From green to brown, all the vegetation was gone. Also Andrew pictures, those houses were totally leveled.
 

I’m sure those islands have a lot less resistance though. 

Edited September 29, 2022 by TLChip

[ak9971]

I think the one thing that might contribute to the perceived lack of strength at landfall could be that the western eyewall was significantly more robust than the eastern eyewall. And with it moving so slow I’m sure the storm started to weaken before the western portion of the storm could make its impact. 

As someone else mentioned I did find a few videos of palm trees stripped down around the Ft. Meyers area. I’m sure more will come out today as the sun begins to come up.

I do think the rating system could be improved but I’m not entirely sure how you do that. It seems on some of the bigger storms the portion of the high CAT4 winds is so small compared to the other average strength.

Just my two cents so far and interested to see how this storm keeps going. As it now enters the Atlantic. Appreciate all the very knowledgeable people in here guiding the discussion, always lots to learn during these!

[Burr]

[Burr]

[Burr]

Sunlight coming.  Expecting to see lots of images of devastation soon…

[Burr]

An additional half-million customers without power overnight.

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Burr

[Iceresistance]

I can't confirm this, but the Sheriff in Lee County said possibly "Hundreds of Fatalities" for the area. 😞 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Iceresistance

[FortySixAnd32]

12 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I can't confirm this, but the Sheriff in Lee County said possibly "Hundreds of Fatalities" for the area. 😞 

https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/hurricane-ian-tracker-2022-news-path-weather-09-29-2022

 

[LUCC]

16 hours ago, Burr said:

Jesse (from our old Accuweather Forum) tweet:

Just an observation/question, why is it that gusts rarely match/reach the recon wind speeds. Ian was 155mph at landfall, any measured winds remotely close? I see 126 as highest.....