Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[Burr]

For comparison purposes in future location fixes.

[StretchCT]

Does this start to wrap Atlantic fuel into the core?  Looks more like a NE hurricane now with the rain on the west side. 

[Burr]

2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Does this start to wrap Atlantic fuel into the core?  Looks more like a NE hurricane now with the rain on the west side. 

Yes.  Definitely yes, it will.  Some would say it has been for a while…

[ak9971]

36 minutes ago, Burr said:

My uncle in St. Pete has lost power… anyone have an outage map?

Looks like someone posted an outage map the shows by county, the utility one that’s more detailed is running pretty slow. 
 

https://account.tecoenergy.com/outage/outagemap?_ga=2.259567945.213549079.1664412415-2082258209.1664412415&_gl=1*4wtc16*_ga*MjA4MjI1ODIwOS4xNjY0NDEyNDE1*_ga_M3ZLW8EPZT*MTY2NDQxMjQxNS4xLjEuMTY2NDQxMjQ2NC4xMS4wLjA.

[TLChip]

Massive!

[Burr]

12 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Does this start to wrap Atlantic fuel into the core?  Looks more like a NE hurricane now with the rain on the west side. 

 

12 minutes ago, Burr said:

For comparison purposes in future location fixes.

Looks like the storm (at its current trajectory) will get to the Atlantic near Melbourne, south of Cape Canaveral, not near Daytona…

[DJKuo]

5 minutes ago, Burr said:

 

Looks like the storm (at its current trajectory) will get to the Atlantic near Melbourne, south of Cape Canaveral, not near Daytona…

I was noticing just the same thing which is concerning as the further south this storm exits, the more time and distance it will have over the Atlantic to re-strengthen. The NAM 12km seems to be hinting at a much northerly 2nd landfall with the more southerly exit of the FL peninsula.

Edited September 29, 2022 by DJKuo

[StretchCT]

Hours of gusts in the triple digits.  Storm moving NNE at 8mph.  Seems more ENE or NE

 

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
900 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC 
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...

A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind tower 
located near Punta Gorda recently reported sustained winds of 55 
mph (89 km/h) with a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).

The automated station at the Punta Gorda Airport measured a gust of 
109 mph (175 km/h) just before 8 PM EDT.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 81.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
 

[Burr]

6 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

...  Storm moving NNE at 8mph.  Seems more ENE or NE

 

 

Yup.  It is definitely not moving north of 45-degrees since landfall.  Not hard to see that, unless the center of low pressure is not following the center of circulation any more…

Edited September 29, 2022 by Burr

[StretchCT]

So I'll pose the question again as it's not something I've been able to find elsewhere.  Colder cloud tops mean more convection, correct?  More convection means more rain.  But the coldest tops here aren't generating rain at all according to radar.   Why?  What am I missing? 

The whole bottom half is almost rain free, while the northern half it's torrential.  The line is sorta the boundry. 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

 

[StretchCT]

Ft Myers might be turning the corner.  Looks like it's about a 7.2 ft surge at peak. Tampa Bay is finally seeing some water come in.  

Edited September 29, 2022 by StretchCT

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I don't think this much lightning at landfall is normal. Also have a small sample size of >154 mph landfalling hurricanes. But this is odd. Thankfully Ian didn't move slower than it did.

It is not very typical to see lightning of this amount near the eyewall. I wonder if the SW shear had anything to do with aiding in that as well as any remnant dry air that was in the storm still.

6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Obligatory landfall satellite gif

 

Honestly if this was over water for another 6-12 hours or had moved a little bit slower we would have seen full on cat 5 and the eyewall probably wrapping itself up fully. Good thing it didn't stay over water longer.

[ClicheVortex2014]

9 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

It is not very typical to see lightning of this amount near the eyewall. I wonder if the SW shear had anything to do with aiding in that as well as any remnant dry air that was in the storm still.

Key word to my post was "at landfall"

I know it's typical of eyewalls to produce a lot of lightning while they're strengthening, I posted about that many times over the past 2 days, but I was saying I haven't seen something like that where it's literally on the coast and still doing that over land. Michael and Harvey has been a while ago so maybe it happened there, but I feel I would probably remember that out of the back of my mind.

Edited September 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[so_whats_happening]

22 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

So I'll pose the question again as it's not something I've been able to find elsewhere.  Colder cloud tops mean more convection, correct?  More convection means more rain.  But the coldest tops here aren't generating rain at all according to radar.   Why?  What am I missing? 

The whole bottom half is almost rain free, while the northern half it's torrential.  The line is sorta the boundry. 

 

The only thing I can think of is those are colder cloud tops from the convection firing off in the north and western side of the storm wrapping around the circulation. Bubbling of cloud tops usually indicates that convection is brewing there thus probably some serious heavy rain. You can still have some rather cool cloud tops in midwest thunderstorms that get pushed out ahead of the main cell but where the bubbling action is usually indicates some serious upward motion.

[so_whats_happening]

12 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Key word to my post was "at landfall"

I know it's typical of eyewalls to produce a lot of lightning while they're strengthening, I posted about that many times over the past 2 days, but I was saying I haven't seen something like that where it's literally on the coast and still doing that. Michael and Harvey has been a while ago so maybe it happened there, but I feel I would probably remember that out of the back of my mind.

Right so warm cored systems should have lightning but it is usually minimal lightning even in some of those moments of rapid intensification. This is usually an indication dry air is in it or cooler air is getting involved to create the ice necessary for it. Again not unheard of to get lightning within a warm core whether out in the ocean or near landfall. Maybe frictional forces played a role in pumping up the lighting potential as it hit land?

Hence why I thought the SW shear may have been playing a role in aiding this considering when it was over the ocean it was the west and southern sides of the system experiencing intense lightning.

Honestly I would have to look back at those moments in time for harvey/ michael/ matthew etc. We didn't have the lightning sensor I believe until right around Michael into the FL peninsula which was over 4 years ago so finding where that thread may exist could be a doozy.

Edited September 29, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[Columbusbuckeye]

27 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

 

 

I like Seidel.  I watched him earlier and he said this was something like his 75th named storm that he’s covered and it’s the worst one he’s been in.  Obviously he hasn’t always been in ground zero, but that’s still saying something. 

[Columbusbuckeye]

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Columbusbuckeye

[Burr]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION

---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 81.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF ORLANDO FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB... 28.58 INCHES

[ClicheVortex2014]

13 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Right so warm cored systems should have lightning but it is usually minimal lightning even in some of those moments of rapid intensification. This is usually an indication dry air is in it or cooler air is getting involved to create the ice necessary for it. Again not unheard of to get lightning within a warm core whether out in the ocean or near landfall. Maybe frictional forces played a role in pumping up the lighting potential as it hit land?

Hence why I thought the SW shear may have been playing a role in aiding this considering when it was over the ocean it was the west and southern sides of the system experiencing intense lightning.

Honestly I would have to look back at those moments in time for harvey/ michael/ matthew etc. We didn't have the lightning sensor I believe until right around Michael into the FL peninsula which was over 4 years ago so finding where that thread may exist could be a doozy.

What I was referring to in my original post was the burst of lightning that developed over land, in the northeastern sector of the eyewall. So it wouldn't make sense for friction to be the cause because friction plays a role when flow goes from water to land. This was a case where the flow in the area of the lightning/convection burst was from land to land; landlocked flow.

Edited September 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

Sorry, but based on official obs, this was a Cat 1. I can't find any obs to support that there was a 30sec sustained wind over 96mph.  

Some Buoys - if you went by these, it was a Cat 1

Big Carlos Pass   Bonita Springs topped off at 69.9 kts sustained and 94kt gust.  So near 110mph.

Station RKXF1 - Upper Henderson Creek, Rookery Bay south of Naples  topped off at 27kts.  Not sure how that's possible but ok.

Station FMRF1 Fort Meyers came in at 50kts sustained and 70kt gust.  

Venice  came in at 71kts sus and 90 gust. 

Station 42013 off shore of Venice maxed out at 52.4kts sus and 70kts gust.  It failed around 6pm.

Station 42097 Pulley Ridge had waves of 27 feet. 

Airports:  if you went by these, it's still a Cat 1

Punta Gorda 86/123 mph

Ft Myers, Page Field 31/50 (went offline before noon)

Ft Myers, SW FL Int'l 62/97 (went offline around 4pm)

Naples Muni  41/62 (went offline around 11am)

Sarasota 47/82 

The Fort Myers water level was 7 feet above normal, which in the old days was a Cat 2 storm. 

Now of course most of the stations aren't reporting anymore.... so maybe we'll get the official winds from NWS soon. 

[so_whats_happening]

8 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Getting lightning strikes over land now with the northeastern eye wall. Unbelievable.

What's even worse is that storm surge is traveling up that channel right now into what I believe is Charlotte Harbor. Gotta be incredible damage and storm surge in Charlotte Harbor. Might be ground zero for this event.

This is what you are referencing correct? To me it looks like a band hit the isles down by Ft Myers. Sanibel to more precise and other portion from when the eyewall made contact with Punta Gorda/ Port Charlotte inlet. 

To me this sounds exactly like frictional forces at play allowing low level convergence to maximize and give that extra umphh. I could be flat out wrong and can ask the person I work with whether or not this occurred. What we see on the western side is more typical of the lightning situation. 

[Burr]

2 million without power in FL

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This is what you are referencing correct? To me it looks like a band hit the isles down by Ft Myers. Sanibel to more precise and other portion from when the eyewall made contact with Punta Gorda/ Port Charlotte inlet. 

To me this sounds exactly like frictional forces at play allowing low level convergence to maximize and give that extra umphh. I could be flat out wrong and can ask the person I work with whether or not this occurred. What we see on the western side is more typical of the lightning situation. 

Yeah you're right, my memory failed me. I thought it was further inland than that. I should've looked back. I agree, seems like friction is at least plausible.  

Edited September 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

"BLUE SKY...THERE IT IS"