Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[Burr]

Looks like Boca Grande will get the official landfall…

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Burr

[Iceresistance]

First Eyewall drop from Recon AF307

[StretchCT]

Almost there.

[StretchCT]

Over by Englewood (cam 3, severe studios), they still have power somehow.

[Burr]

At 2pm, the center fix is indicated slightly southeast of the center of the expected position in the cone…

 

[FortySixAnd32]

Englewood always up to no good....getting waxed!!!!!

[ak9971]

17 minutes ago, 1816 said:

It's a lot wider and I believe just shallow as hell. And of course it's a bigger city with more population density. Alot of land where Ian is currently making landfall is tied up in wetland and nature preserves and parks. Tampa Bay is all city. 

 

This could have been even worse amazingly enough. 

Tampa definitely would have been worst case scenario. But Ft. Meyers Cape Coral Naples area is still pretty populated. 

[StretchCT]

Vortex message - 938 mb, 139 sfmr winds, 156mph flight level winds.  Went in the N and exited the south.  Pretty even winds for a sheared storm. Eye circular closed and 34nm wide. One of the largest temp differences, 9° outside, 22° inside. 

Spoiler

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:46Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 17:17:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.51N 82.41W
B. Center Fix Location: 35 statute miles (57 km) to the WSW (256°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,581m (8,468ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 938mb (27.70 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 113kts (130.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (352°) of center fix at 17:12:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 102° at 135kts (From the ESE at 155.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix at 17:11:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 121kts (139.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) of center fix at 17:22:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 226° at 136kts (From the SW at 156.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) of center fix at 17:23:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 136kts (~ 156.5mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) from the flight level center at 17:23:00Z

 

[Burr]

2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Vortex message - 938 mb, 139 sfmr winds, 156mph flight level winds.  Went in the N and exited the south.  Pretty even winds for a sheared storm. Eye circular closed and 34nm wide. One of the largest temp differences, 9° outside, 22° inside. 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:46Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 17:17:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.51N 82.41W
B. Center Fix Location: 35 statute miles (57 km) to the WSW (256°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,581m (8,468ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 938mb (27.70 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 113kts (130.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (352°) of center fix at 17:12:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 102° at 135kts (From the ESE at 155.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix at 17:11:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 121kts (139.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) of center fix at 17:22:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 226° at 136kts (From the SW at 156.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) of center fix at 17:23:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 136kts (~ 156.5mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) from the flight level center at 17:23:00Z

 

2 passes…

[StretchCT]

[Burr]

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

The satellite views I’ve been showing really do skew the perspective of the location compared to the ground-based radar.

[Burr]

You can also see the eye continue to tighten up as it approaches landfall… so impressive!

[Sentinel]

9 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Vortex message - 938 mb, 139 sfmr winds, 156mph flight level winds.  Went in the N and exited the south.  Pretty even winds for a sheared storm. Eye circular closed and 34nm wide. One of the largest temp differences, 9° outside, 22° inside. 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:46Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 17:17:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.51N 82.41W
B. Center Fix Location: 35 statute miles (57 km) to the WSW (256°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,581m (8,468ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 938mb (27.70 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 113kts (130.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (352°) of center fix at 17:12:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 102° at 135kts (From the ESE at 155.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix at 17:11:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 121kts (139.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) of center fix at 17:22:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 226° at 136kts (From the SW at 156.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) of center fix at 17:23:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 136kts (~ 156.5mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) from the flight level center at 17:23:00Z

 

2 MPH shy cat 5

[StretchCT]

Water should still be pouring into Naples.  Equipment failed. Last update was 17:06z almost 90 mins ago.

Edited September 28, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

 

[Iceresistance]

Jim Cantore nearly got struck by Lightning, that's a first. O_O

[1816]

13 minutes ago, ak9971 said:

Tampa definitely would have been worst case scenario. But Ft. Meyers Cape Coral Naples area is still pretty populated. 

Oh absolutely not trying to downplay it. Tampa is bigger and the geography worse but where it's at is plenty big. It's horrific. 

[StretchCT]

 

[StretchCT]

 

[Sentinel]

5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Jim Cantore nearly got struck by Lightning, that's a first. O_O

He has angered Ian and Gov DeSantis. 

[clm]

3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

 

Wow.

I never did understand a pool right next to the beach. 

[StretchCT]

 

[1816]

1 minute ago, clm said:

Wow.

I never did understand a pool right next to the beach. 

If it's got one of those bars you can drink at while you sit in the water then I'm all for it! 🍹

[1816]

2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

 

Yep we'll call that 10 feet

 

Edit nah let's go 12-14 just to be safe

Edited September 28, 2022 by 1816

[clm]

4 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

 

Unreal.  A lot of damage already.  Cars will be shot.  Houses and buildings will have mold even if physically they were not damaged.

For a second, I thought those things in the water just up from the electric pole in the beginning were people.  Not sure what those are.