Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[Iceresistance]

We got Recon heading towards Nine (9).

 

EDIT: Nevermind, it has issues. 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Iceresistance
Updated

[ClicheVortex2014]

11 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

We got Recon heading towards Nine (9).

 

EDIT: Nevermind, it has issues. 

Relatable

[StretchCT]

Good night.  Just occurs to me that 9 and Fiona aren't that far longitudinally.

[Sentinel]

10 hours ago, StretchCT said:

East coast has to watch the timing with the trough and whether it escapes to sea with it or if it lags and a high builds over it.  

 

Edit : GFS6z run shows this happening, except it doesn't turn the storm into the east coast, just cuts it off.

Double edit:  Oh geez, this is what happens when I don't check models first.

Yeah - I think this (or one within the next couple weeks) is going to shoot up the coast. Just a gut feeling. 

I have been feeling a large NE hit this year. This would definitely be the set up for it. 

[Ingyball]

It does appear that the mid-level center to the southwest is starting to take over via Satellite and Microwave. You can see that hot tower that was associated with the mesovort (previous center) being pulled westward while the old circulation gets left behind. On Microwave you can see some curved banding further to the west. This is about 4 hours old so the old circulation was stronger at that point. Interestingly enough this is exactly what the HWRF has been showing. 

 

 

[Ingyball]

Looks like we have tropical storm Ian on Best Track

[Poco]

00z hurricane models 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

18 minutes ago, Poco said:

00z hurricane models 

 

Not happy to see 3 models reach peak Category 4 before this storm is officially named. That's pretty grim. Especially considering, as far as I'm aware, there's really not much holding RI back. Something could pop up but it should be pretty explosive. We've seen it happen many times where models underestimate RI.

Edited September 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

Anyone got a sat pic with the circulation on it?

[StretchCT]

This is where ADT put the center.  This is showing as TS Nine now.

Edited September 24, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

RI isn't expected immediately, but is in the RI modeling. 

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ai-ri/#Nine

[StretchCT]

This is pretty slow, enough to weaken.  It's landfall wind speed is somewhere just under 80kts.  It's max is 110kts. 

[StretchCT]

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Crazy transition from daytime convection to nighttime. The massive updraft with this convective burst does a great job at clearing out mid-to-upper level clouds.

Edited September 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

Disco highlights - still sheared, recon failed but ATD and Satcon are 30 and 45kts, so 35kts it is.  Center is moving more slowly. Rapid Intensification expected hours 48-72.  Cuba isn't expected to weaken it much. 

Spoiler

WTNT44 KNHC 240245
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The system remains sheared from the northeast, with the low-level 
circulation evident a bit to the east of the deep convection.  
Unfortunately, we didn't have the benefit of a reconnaissance 
aircraft this evening to sample the winds, but satellite estimates 
did increase a bit.  TAFB and SAB provided Dvorak classifications 
of T2.0/30 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, while the objective 
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates are at tropical storm intensity.  
Based on a blend of these data, the depression is upgraded to 
Tropical Storm Ian with 35-kt winds.

Ian's center appears to have been moving more slowly this evening, 
and the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 285/10 
kt.  The track guidance is in good agreement that Ian should turn 
westward during the next 12-24 hours while located to the south of 
a small mid-level anticyclone centered just north of Hispaniola.  
After 24 hours, Ian is expected to begin recurving around the 
western side of this high, turning northwestward over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea, and then northward while crossing Cuba 
into the Gulf of Mexico and toward Florida.  The track models 
agree on this general scenario, and the guidance envelope is 
flanked by the major global models, with the ECMWF taking a route 
over South Florida and the GFS farther west, remaining over the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico by day 5.  The new NHC forecast lies between 
these two scenarios and is not much different from the previous 
forecast.  The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both show a similar amount 
of spread as the deterministic guidance, but both ensemble means 
are close to the multi-model consensus aids, which helps to give 
more credence to the position of the official forecast.

The moderate deep-layer shear affecting Ian is forecast to decrease 
during the next 6 to 12 hours, and the cyclone will be moving over 
the very warm waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea, 
where sea surface temperatures are between 29 and 31 degrees 
Celsius.  Intensification is expected to be gradual during the next 
36 hours while Ian gets better organized in a lower-shear 
environment, but after that time, conditions will be conducive for 
faster strengthening.  In fact, the NHC intensity forecast 
explicitly calls for rapid intensification (RI) between days 2 and 
3 while Ian is moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward 
western Cuba.  It's worth nothing too that the RI indices from 
SHIPS are showing a 2-in-3 chance of a 65-kt increase in winds 
during the next 3 days, and if that transpires, Ian could be 
stronger than what's shown in the official forecast.  The storm is 
not expected to be over Cuba long enough to cause much weakening, 
and the forecast still shows Ian as a major hurricane over the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico while approaching the west coast of Florida.

Key Messages:

1.  Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of 
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, 
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

2.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by 
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late 
Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on 
Sunday.

3.  Early next week, Ian is forecast to move near or over western 
Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida 
peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential 
for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds, 
and heavy rainfall.  While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates
through the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 14.8N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 14.7N  73.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 15.1N  76.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 16.1N  78.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 17.6N  80.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 19.3N  81.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...NEAR GRAND CAYMAN
 72H  27/0000Z 21.2N  82.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 24.9N  83.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 28.0N  82.0W   95 KT 110 MPH...OVER FLORIDA

$$
Forecaster Berg
 

 

[StretchCT]

JMA

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

JMA

JMA aka Just Messing Around

[ClicheVortex2014]

Past 3 runs have trended slower, similar to the previous overnight runs.

Edited September 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Really hard to see the center of circulation at night but this is the best shot we can get.

Very strong convection west of the CoC but it's approaching the convection. 

 

Intense convection, and changes in behavior, since sunset

[MaineJay]

Most recent microwave is 1 hour old. Here's a comparison with a 4 hour old one.

Different satellites, so it's n a perfect comp, but looks like convection is beginning to wrap around on the east side.

[MaineJay]

8 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Anyone got a sat pic with the circulation on it?

 

5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Really hard to see the center of circulation at night but this is the best shot we can get.

Very strong convection west of the CoC but it's approaching the convection. 

 

Intense convection, and changes in behavior, since sunset

I highly recommend using the RAMMB slider. You can really customize your loop, and can download as a gif. I would recommend speeding it up a little first, it reduces the files size by half, because the slower speed just adds duplicate frames to make it appear slower.

 I will then crop and make it pause for a second on the last frame. I just find it more pleasing to the eye that way.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=878.4761924743652&y=443.2142333984375&z=0&angle=0&im=30&ts=6&st=0&et=0&speed=70&motion=loop&maps[borders]=white&lat=0&p[0]=eumetsat_ash&opacity[0]=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

  Band 7, Shortwave IR on RAMMB shows more detail than other sites.

The ASH, and DUST composites (which likely use band 7) also show very nice nighttime details.

And for daylight hours, nothing beats the meso floaters at RAMMB. Only get band 2, but it's still the highest resolution.

https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-16.asp

I kinda feel like the SE corner is showing the best rotation, but he might still be searching.

[Iceresistance]

Recon is having a really hard time finding the CoC, which is very worrying because Ian could have a very tight core. 

 

EDIT: They found a CoC

Edited September 24, 2022 by Iceresistance
Updated

[StretchCT]

8 hours ago, StretchCT said:

This is where ADT put the center.  This is showing as TS Nine now.

New center

Edited September 24, 2022 by StretchCT

[Iceresistance]

9 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

New center

The center is likely going to change, Recon has yet to find 45 mph winds that could be DEEP inside the convection

[Ingyball]

Recon found a center at 850mb at 13.5N and 74.5W. This may not be where the dominant center forms as the storm is not stacked yet so this will likely change. Either way the 12z model runs may have some drastic changes