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Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5


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This is what they do now. Barring any obvious limitations they use these incredibly warm waters to exceed expectations. Models can't predict the intensity quite right. Unless you have a real shear problem or a dry air problem you can pretty much take an overperformance to the bank. 

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Certainly looking healthier and more symmetrical than even half an hour ago.

Edit: This is the Key West radar, so it looks a bit different than further north. You can see obvious attenuation as it misses the heavy stuff on the opposite side of the eye.

Screenshot_20220928_081944.thumb.jpg.e68290285cdc69cea0a2afb85f29d8ce.jpg

Edited by Tater
Clarification
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16 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

My God!! Look at the ?refractory? waves to the south!!! I hope I said that correctly.

Hmm, need an accent.  Plus put an emphasis on "south" for a climactic ending.  A pose of a superhero while saying it would give it more pizazz.  Also a cape wouldn't hurt either.

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32 minutes ago, Burr said:

Highlighting for those in the cheap seats:

We are now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida.

I hope I'm wrong, but we've seen these surge forecasts fail at times. After he passed Cuba, it was kinda starting from scratch to create a "bulge" beneath him. Combined with the eastern eyewall being the "weakest" sector, I think places might be spared of the most dire surge scenarios.

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5 minutes ago, Burr said:

Does not appear to have made a noticeable right turn yet… still heading virtually north… as it also still appears to be strengthening into landfall around Venice.

441C2697-A628-49D9-AD8C-A3D4A351D209.gif

 

I'm wondering if land interaction will put the breaks of further intensification soon? Kind of looks that way on this IR loop.

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1 minute ago, Grace said:

 

I'm wondering if land interaction will put the breaks of further intensification soon? Kind of looks that way on this IR loop.

You would think. But then I’ve seen a lot of canes increase allegedly due to frictional affects tightening the circulation. So if it strengthens we say that. If it weakens it’s land interaction.  
 

I should be a politician. 

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7 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I hope I'm wrong, but we've seen these surge forecasts fail at times. After he passed Cuba, it was kinda starting from scratch to create a "bulge" beneath him. Combined with the eastern eyewall being the "weakest" sector, I think places might be spared of the most dire surge scenarios.

Orrrr maybe all that missing water you're finding this morning shows back up later around high tide 🤷‍♂️

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These are the inundations prior to them increasing 12-18 feet.  Port Charlotte half gone. Putnta Gorda gone. Sanibel Captiva gone. Ft Meyers almost gone . Cape Coral at least half gone. Naples mostly gone. Marcos Island is Atlantis  AA57F0D8-3AFD-4D78-84A9-B5A746A7906A.thumb.png.08fa428ef9fef5de99f812b69a2ae1e2.png534B8FD1-2C6B-43F5-953C-3F1160DA5C72.thumb.png.c8c290c93b3e574294983a77f13eb7f3.png4AABF7F4-87F8-4DCA-83DB-BAE34A914660.thumb.png.ab1031a1b2db8fc3f540e769fa836e50.pngB29575D6-ED40-4E6A-8944-08F1B64EDFE7.thumb.png.116797286abfcaf0dcefb6d57774d638.png

 

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