Admin Popular Post Sentinel Posted September 28, 2022 Admin Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2022 53 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Eyeballing Tampa Bay, it's about 150 sq miles, the tide is about a foot below where it should be. There's roughly 7.5 gallons/ cubic ft. This roughly calculates to 32 billion gallons being displace. Nerd 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Burr said: Highlighting for those in the cheap seats: We are now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. I have friends who have a vacation home in Port Charlotte. 4 miles from the harbor!!! Ouch!!! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 28, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looks like the eastern eyewall about 15-20 miles from Ft Myers. Looks like the western side is the business end though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Well this thing sure took off. Didn’t expect to wake up to a high end cat 4. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looks stronger and stronger every time I check back here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 This is what they do now. Barring any obvious limitations they use these incredibly warm waters to exceed expectations. Models can't predict the intensity quite right. Unless you have a real shear problem or a dry air problem you can pretty much take an overperformance to the bank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted September 28, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) Certainly looking healthier and more symmetrical than even half an hour ago. Edit: This is the Key West radar, so it looks a bit different than further north. You can see obvious attenuation as it misses the heavy stuff on the opposite side of the eye. Edited September 28, 2022 by Tater Clarification 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Burr said: My God!! Look at the ?refractory? waves to the south!!! I hope I said that correctly. Edited September 28, 2022 by FortySixAnd32 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 28, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 28, 2022 Ft Myers skipped a high tide today. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Does not appear to have made a noticeable right turn yet… still heading virtually north… as it also still appears to be strengthening into landfall around Venice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 28, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said: Ian looks to be doing exactly this right now Noting again that the “sheared” side is over performing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said: My God!! Look at the ?refractory? waves to the south!!! I hope I said that correctly. Hmm, need an accent. Plus put an emphasis on "south" for a climactic ending. A pose of a superhero while saying it would give it more pizazz. Also a cape wouldn't hurt either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 28, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 28, 2022 32 minutes ago, Burr said: Highlighting for those in the cheap seats: We are now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. I hope I'm wrong, but we've seen these surge forecasts fail at times. After he passed Cuba, it was kinda starting from scratch to create a "bulge" beneath him. Combined with the eastern eyewall being the "weakest" sector, I think places might be spared of the most dire surge scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Burr said: Does not appear to have made a noticeable right turn yet… still heading virtually north… as it also still appears to be strengthening into landfall around Venice. I'm wondering if land interaction will put the breaks of further intensification soon? Kind of looks that way on this IR loop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 28, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 28, 2022 Kudos to the graveyard shift and early risers. Didn’t expect to wake up to two readings of 157mph 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, clm said: Hmm, need an accent. Plus put an emphasis on "south" for a climactic ending. A pose of a superhero while saying it would give it more pizazz. Also a cape wouldn't hurt either. Well played sir... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Listening to 1010 AM on the way to work, wishing wxsphere was on the radio so I could hear the updates. 😁 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 28, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Grace said: I'm wondering if land interaction will put the breaks of further intensification soon? Kind of looks that way on this IR loop. You would think. But then I’ve seen a lot of canes increase allegedly due to frictional affects tightening the circulation. So if it strengthens we say that. If it weakens it’s land interaction. I should be a politician. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 28, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, clm said: Listening to 1010 AM on the way to work, wishing wxsphere was on the radio so I could hear the updates. 😁 We could all just shout over each other live on the discord site? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, MaineJay said: I hope I'm wrong, but we've seen these surge forecasts fail at times. After he passed Cuba, it was kinda starting from scratch to create a "bulge" beneath him. Combined with the eastern eyewall being the "weakest" sector, I think places might be spared of the most dire surge scenarios. Orrrr maybe all that missing water you're finding this morning shows back up later around high tide 🤷♂️ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 28, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 28, 2022 These are the inundations prior to them increasing 12-18 feet. Port Charlotte half gone. Putnta Gorda gone. Sanibel Captiva gone. Ft Meyers almost gone . Cape Coral at least half gone. Naples mostly gone. Marcos Island is Atlantis 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2022 Can't believe it jumped up 25 mph since I went to bed 6 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cer5059 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Jeff is live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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