Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[Iceresistance]

Eye drop support 941 mb.

And this, WOW!

[MaineJay]

Summer current conditions out of Florida.

 

[Iceresistance]

Northern Eyewall dropsonde just came in, it's even more scary than the southern drop! 

[so_whats_happening]

20 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

What is the best case scenario? Riding East of the apps or West of the apps?

East of the apps

8 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I don't believe it's forecast to really gain a ton of latitude, but hypothetically, I think west would cause less problems. A stall on the east side could set up an early fetch off the ocean, and wring out moisture in ready facing slopes. Heavy rain and riding being the highest probability threats.

  Ian appears to want to spin itself out over the SE after moving over land, per latest models.  Decaying systems can still produce lots of rain.

Yea was literally just discussing this with my colleague. There is now a possibility of this going back over the Atlantic around Daytona area in which it can gain some steam, probably nothing more than a Cat 1 but should make another landfall into SC. By then we go full on extratropical and with the pressure between the high to the north and eventually north east and the system moving NW this sets up the perfect belt for moisture to flow into many areas of MD/VA and even southern PA. Ill have to check on details after landfall later on today but I believe WPC might be going with a 3-4" rain forecast for bmore area but this may need to be monitored on just how quickly it moves out.

There is also a chance that this produces a Nor'easter with the remnants of Ian. 

I could see areas of central VA up to MD seeing a solid 4-6"+ where low level convergence gets maximized that along with maximizeing upper level diffluence in the region. Going to be an interesting time.

[so_whats_happening]

Ian ingested just a little too much dry air to probably get to official cat 5 status but nonetheless a 140mph still intensifying hurricane will do more than enough damage.

[1816]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

East of the apps

Yea was literally just discussing this with my colleague. There is now a possibility of this going back over the Atlantic around Daytona area in which it can gain some steam, probably nothing more than a Cat 1 but should make another landfall into SC. By then we go full on extratropical and with the pressure between the high to the north and eventually north east and the system moving NW this sets up the perfect belt for moisture to flow into many areas of MD/VA and even southern PA. Ill have to check on details after landfall later on today but I believe WPC might be going with a 3-4" rain forecast for bmore area but this may need to be monitored on just how quickly it moves out.

There is also a chance that this produces a Nor'easter with the remnants of Ian. 

I could see areas of central VA up to MD seeing a solid 4-6"+ where low level convergence gets maximized that along with maximizeing upper level diffluence in the region. Going to be an interesting time.

Hello from the eastern slopes of VA.  Yeah that sucks I'll take 4 and be glad its not worse. 🤞🤞

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, 1816 said:

Hello from the eastern slopes of VA.  Yeah that sucks I'll take 4 and be glad its not worse. 🤞🤞

Yea a lot of things can still change so I wouldn't rest too easy for areas near the apps. Should get a better understanding after it makes landfall as to the path it will likely take. Really don't want it to go over the Atlantic but it seems more and more likely as we move forward.

We should see one heck of a cutoff reminiscent of January 2016 blizzard. Areas of VA, MD, and southern PA get hit while just north of allentown gets some lighter rains. 

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Ian ingested just a little too much dry air to probably get to official cat 5 status but nonetheless a 140mph still intensifying hurricane will do more than enough damage.

ADT values may skyrocket because it now has a 50% WMG ring per IR Dvorak. 

 

EDIT: Posted it before, but a Dropsonde in the northern eyewall has found 150 mph winds at the surface and Cat 5 winds just above it. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Iceresistance

[1816]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea a lot of things can still change so I wouldn't rest too easy for areas near the apps. Should get a better understanding after it makes landfall as to the path it will likely take. Really don't want it to go over the Atlantic but it seems more and more likely as we move forward.

We should see one heck of a cutoff reminiscent of January 2016 blizzard. Areas of VA, MD, and southern PA get hit while just north of allentown gets some lighter rains. 

Just hoping something can pick it up and scoot it. Something to pin some hopes on since it's still days away. 

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

ADT values may skyrocket because it now has a 50% WMG ring per IR Dvorak. 

The biggest issue is proximity to land. It will start to feel the effects Florida has to offer even though most of the state is rather flat. Who knows maybe we can get an official reading upwards of 150mph before full landfall. I am also sure there will be near cat 5 sustained at times in locations but again semantics really.

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, 1816 said:

Just hoping something can pick it up and scoot it. Something to pin some hopes on since it's still days away. 

Apparently the high pressure coming in is rather strong for September standards, I believe my colleague mentioned top 3 as far as pressure readings go. Seeing models at about 1034-1036mb which for this time of year is rather impressive to say the least.

[so_whats_happening]

As mentioned to me one of the key things to take note is the amount of lightning. There is a ton of lightning around the eyewall especially SW-N that is a good indicator there is still a bit of dry air that needs to be worked out and another reason for this potentially to not quite hit cat 5 status.

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

As mentioned to me one of the key things to take note is the amount of lightning. There is a ton of lightning around the eyewall especially SW-N that is a good indicator there is still a bit of dry air that needs to be worked out and another reason for this potentially to not quite hit cat 5 status.

I always try to respect the pro mets, but I'm not sure on not being a Cat 5 in the near future.

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

I always try to respect the pro mets, but I'm not sure on not being a Cat 5 in the near future.

No doubt, it is not likely but not a 0% chance either. If it can clear out that eye a firm up the eyewall a bit more than most definitely could see a quick peak to cat 5.

This shows the E and SE side of the eyewall aren't quite there. Usually the idea of a cat 5 is everything is damn near perfect within it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_06.html

[Iceresistance]

IAN IS AT 155 MPH! I REPEAT, IAN IS AT 155 MPH!

Edited September 28, 2022 by Iceresistance

[so_whats_happening]

Based on movement it looks like Venice may be where landfall occurs just south of Sarasota. This puts Ft Myers and port Charlotte right in the path of some of the strongest surge potential.

[Neoncyclone]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

IAN IS AT 155 MPH! I REPEAT, IAN IS AT 155 MPH!

Yeah that's flight-level winds though to be fair lol

[Iceresistance]

Just now, Neoncyclone said:

Yeah that's flight-level winds though to be fair lol

SMFR supports 155-160 mph

[1816]

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Based on movement it looks like Venice may be where landfall occurs just south of Sarasota. This puts Ft Myers and port Charlotte right in the path of some of the strongest surge potential.

Hope people on sanibel got off or got ready. This is the area I looked at last night and storm peak is supposed to coincide with high tide around 3 pm. Sanibel is a beautiful place and susceptible to major surge here. 

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Yeah that's flight-level winds though to be fair lol

Yea it looks like the latest pass brings this up to potentially a solid 145 to 150mph storm. Creeping ever so close to that cat 5 status.

[Neoncyclone]

Phew...

 

BOTH recon missions finding 935mb

Edited September 28, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Iceresistance]

Just now, Neoncyclone said:

At the same time, AF301 found 933.6 mb extrapolated

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Hope people on sanibel got off or got ready. This is the area I looked at last night and storm peak is supposed to coincide with high tide around 3 pm. Sanibel is a beautiful place and susceptible to major surge here. 

Never been but yea this is not looking good at all. Forecasts were for surge to be 9-12 feet above ground in those areas.  Most in that area have a peak elevation of 13 feet or so. No bueno.

[Neoncyclone]

Just now, Iceresistance said:

At the same time, AF301 found 933.6 mb extrapolated

Yeah just edited my post to include AF301, crazy.

[1816]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

Never been but yea this is not looking good at all. Forecasts were for surge to be 9-12 feet above ground in those areas.  Most in that area have a peak elevation of 13 feet or so. No bueno.

If I decided to ride it out on sanibel and ended up with no way to get off I'd be shitting myself looking down this barrel. A Richelieu apartments situation is a real possibility there.