Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1200 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ... 12 AM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... A special advisory will be released by 1230 AM EDT (0430 UTC) to issue a Storm Surge Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West. There will be no changes to the track or intensity forecast. The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 79 mph (128 km/h). An elevated WeatherFlow station at Smith Shoal Light reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) with a gust of 93 mph (150 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC... INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 82.9W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 28, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 28, 2022 This is bad. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 hours ago, Burr said: G’nite, Ian. Hope you go to sleep… Wow what a burst at the end there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) Nice shot of the erc on mimic Infra Red https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/mainpage.html this last frame was 00z so from a few hours ago, it’s probably nearly done it’s eyecwall replacement by now or close to it, and retightening the eye while expanding the overall wind field just need to verify on latest IR images on the navy site Edited September 28, 2022 by Poco 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) Do notice the drop on Current intensity on ADT but then another surge of adjusted T within the last few hours, Ci normally lags adjt movements. this also hints (lineups well with) the erc being pretty much complete as a restrengthening occurs with the aid of a diurnal boost, size of hurricane should continue to grow for a bit Don’t be surprised if CI to push towards the h5 140kt mark on adt if it resurges Edited September 28, 2022 by Poco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, Poco said: Nice shot of the erc on mimic Infra Red https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/mainpage.html this last frame was 00z so from a few hours ago, it’s probably nearly done it’s eyecwall replacement by now or close to it, and retightening the eye while expanding the overall wind field just need to verify on latest IR images on the navy site Incredible. Imagine what most of these hurricanes would look like if Cuba wasn’t there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 28, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Columbusbuckeye said: Incredible. Imagine what most of these hurricanes would look like if Cuba wasn’t there. I don't want to 😶 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) I missed another tornadic supercell in S FL. It's lifted now. About 15 mins between the images. First image shows the beginning of a debris signature, second shows the end of it. Edited September 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 hours ago, StretchCT said: Aww mangled all the planes. Bad spot to touch down that's going to be expensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Poco said: Nice shot of the erc on mimic Infra Red https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/mainpage.html this last frame was 00z so from a few hours ago, it’s probably nearly done it’s eyecwall replacement by now or close to it, and retightening the eye while expanding the overall wind field just need to verify on latest IR images on the navy site That really is remarkable to see visually. You can also see that Ian hasn't really gained much latitude in the last several hours until recently with that slight NE jog. Influence of the front is showing its' push. Edited September 28, 2022 by NWOhioChaser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Got a family member in s FL. Texted them to watch out for twisters and they wrote back it's just a bit of wind and rain it's no big deal. Sent them the picture of the airport and they were like oh shit better turn on the news. 🤣🤣 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I think the whole weakening before landfall thing is kind of off the table. Now that it's got the erc over with its just gonna fire on all cylinders over this shallow hot water. Bad situation for sure, this surge is no joke. People who aren't heeding the surge warnings may be in for a rough swim. I think we are looking at strengthening and will wake up to quite a storm. This guy just shrugs off everything. Cuba, erc, whatever. Ian still like 🖕 🖕 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looks like high tide is going to be around 3pm. That also unfortunately looks to be the absolute height of the storm. Come on Ian give us a damn break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) ADT show CI took a slight jump back up but has evened out. Hopefully we’ve reached the limit it appears like it still needs to contract it new eye. Will be a close if it can before landfall and surge again or has it reached its plateau regardless its a powerful hurricane take all necessary precautions and be safe !! Edited September 28, 2022 by Poco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) Was just down in Key west this past April. You could literally not pay me enough to be on that island during a hurricane. One way in one way out... no thanks. lol Very nice storm we have here. I believe we may push to Cat 4 status toward daybreak. I want to say the most reasonable area for landfall will be between Ft Myers and Tampa, gotta say tampa really lucked out with this one. Best guess is around Sarasota, Fl. Still probably have a solid 12-18 hours before landfall potential. Edited September 28, 2022 by so_whats_happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 28, 2022 Author Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) Uhhhh, Recon just found 942 mb extrapolated. UPDATE: Down to 939.7 mb extrapolated Edited September 28, 2022 by Iceresistance Updated 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 28, 2022 Author Share Posted September 28, 2022 Recon has found 141 knots FL wind in the Eastern Quad 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 28, 2022 Author Share Posted September 28, 2022 Holy crap! 140 mph and 942 mb! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) Current Radar looks like some of the east side is dry/weakening. NOAA up to 140.. Sheesh Spaghetti Edited September 28, 2022 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, TLChip said: Current Radar looks like some of the east side is dry/weakening. NOAA up to 140.. Sheesh Spaghetti What is the best case scenario? Riding East of the apps or West of the apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 28, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 28, 2022 Any wind reports? Closest buoy I found is about 75 miles away, but only 25-30 mph as of an hour or so ago. With winds offshore to the north, water levels are currently low Oddly, even south of the storm they are running low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 28, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 28, 2022 50 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said: What is the best case scenario? Riding East of the apps or West of the apps? I don't believe it's forecast to really gain a ton of latitude, but hypothetically, I think west would cause less problems. A stall on the east side could set up an easterly fetch off the ocean, and wring out moisture in east facing slopes. Heavy rain and riding being the highest probability threats. Ian appears to want to spin itself out over the SE after moving over land, per latest models. Decaying systems can still produce lots of rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Cat 4 and still plenty of time to gain strength before landfall and high tide. This is beginning to look like worst case scenario!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 29 minutes ago, TLChip said: Current Radar looks like some of the east side is dry/weakening. NOAA up to 140.. Sheesh Spaghetti Not thrilled about down the road on this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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