Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Waves are essentially 18” above the pavement… comparing from about 6 hours ago… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: In the disco - NHC thinks so That's what I get for not reading the discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Anyone worried this trough is going to kick it into the Atlantic and it’s going to make a second significant landfall in southern Carolina? Icon showed it some of the shorter range models wanna bring the pressure back down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: That's what I get for not reading the discussion I believe the saying is, “Great minds think alike.” 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 28, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Hassaywx1223 said: Anyone worried this trough is going to kick it into the Atlantic and it’s going to make a second significant landfall in southern Carolina? Icon showed it some of the shorter range models wanna bring the pressure back down 100%, though I could see it going further N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) Don't like how small the eye continues to be, on top of the currently exploding convection north and east of the eye. The smaller the eye, the greater the potential for RI. Conservation of angular momentum Edited September 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Don't like how small the eye continues to be, on top of the currently exploding convection north and east of the eye. Was literally just posting this same image… who has the lightning video? We’re seeing those pink cloud tops around the eye again… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Burr said: Was literally just posting this same image… who has the lightning video? We’re seeing those pink cloud tops around the eye again… Here ya go. Hard to see lightning on LWIR so I changed it up a bit. Link: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-S_Florida-truecolor-48-1-50-1&checked=map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I’m not sure if anyone is talking about this, but I feel like a lot of the sand dunes on the western side of Florida are fairly small. It’s not going to take much for the ocean to completely engulf a lot of beautiful Florida beaches. Sanibel Island and Siesta Key are two that stand out to me that might be in big trouble. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Been a long time since I learned to read these flags… is that a 118 knot flight level wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2022 In case one wants to check our LWIR+lightning anyway, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said: I’m not sure if anyone is talking about this, but I feel like a lot of the sand dunes on the western side of Florida are fairly small. It’s not going to take much for the ocean to completely engulf a lot of beautiful Florida beaches. Sanibel Island and Siesta Key are two that stand out to me that might be in big trouble. Absolutely, those barrier islands will be reshaped by this storm. Captiva and Sanibel were on my mind. I vacationed on Siesta Key about 20 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Burr said: Been a long time since I learned to read these flags… is that a 118 knot flight level wind? Flag is 50 knots. 1 "bar" (I forget what it's actually called) is 10 knots, half a bar is 5 knots. Highest I see is is 115 knots which is 132 mph Edited September 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said: Anyone worried this trough is going to kick it into the Atlantic and it’s going to make a second significant landfall in southern Carolina? Icon showed it some of the shorter range models wanna bring the pressure back down TS or Cat 1 hurricane. I'll be shocked if it's more than that though because Ian is going to look totally different in 24 hours. Ian will get on land and the shear will have a major impact on him. The southern half of Ian is going to get eviscerated with HEAVY rain bands setting up from SSW to NNE, think Tampa to Daytona on I-4. He'll emerge over water and have maybe 24 hours to consolidate and strengthen somewhat. Even if shear were to lighten up significantly, time just won't be on his side to do a ton thankfully. What I'm trying to say is, what do you believe is a significant landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Doesn’t look like they released a sonde on that last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: TS or Cat 1 hurricane. I'll be shocked if it's more than that though because Ian is going to look totally different in 24 hours. Ian will get on land and the shear will have a major impact on him. The southern half of Ian is going to get eviscerated with HEAVY rain bands setting up from SSW to NNE, think Tampa to Daytona on I-4. He'll emerge over water and have maybe 24 hours to consolidate and strengthen somewhat. Even if shear were to lighten up significantly, time just won't be on his side to do a ton thankfully. What I'm trying to say is, what do you believe is a significant landfall? Is damage to the coast with surge or heavy rains and winds that’s all it takes for significant maybe get back to a cat 2 at most. im not speaking catastrophic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 28, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 28, 2022 29 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said: Anyone worried this trough is going to kick it into the Atlantic and it’s going to make a second significant landfall in southern Carolina? Icon showed it some of the shorter range models wanna bring the pressure back down Faster this goes, the less it stalls the more likely second landfall occurs. It’s trending that way. TS warnings already up there, but I wonder if anyone is paying attention. Already forecast a decent surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) Still moving just east of due north… Edited September 28, 2022 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) WPC now has a day-2 and day-3 high risk for flash flooding. Not really surprising considering the circumstances but it's pretty rare to have enough confidence to warrant a high risk beyond day 1. That said, the areas where there's an overlap between the day-2 and day-3 high risk is the most concerning part. Discussion Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 425 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 28 2022 - 12Z Thu Sep 29 2022 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...2030Z Update... ...Florida... In collaboration with all of the Florida NWS offices, a high risk area has been issued for portions of central Florida with this update. The high risk includes the Tampa, Fort Myers, and Orlando areas. This area is in association with the landfall and slow track of major hurricane Ian. As the hurricane approaches the Gulf Coast of Florida, expect the forward speed to slow down significantly. As a result, expect a prolonged period of very heavy rain, likely exceeding 3 inches per hour at times, across much of Florida, especially in the high risk area. Expect at least a foot of rain over this period from Tampa south through at least Venice. The high risk extends southward along the coast to around Naples. These southern communities can expect somewhat less rain as the Ian's eye moves overhead, but the combination with storm surge and several inches of rain will locally cause flooding concerns. The latest HiRes model output strongly favors the area ahead of and north/west of the eye to be the area most likely to see excessive rainfall totals. As such, the high risk area's southern boundary is close to the latest NHC track. Some uncertainty still persists regarding the exact track and speed of the hurricane. These factors will have a big influence on how much rain any one area sees over this multi-day event. Fortunately, the trend has been for a nominally faster forward speed in latest forecast updates, but since an overall very slow forward motion remains in the forecast, expect localized totals over 2 feet to be likely somewhere in the high risk area by the time all is said and done. Any training thunderstorms could compact the time frame it takes to get to this rainfall total into a much shorter time, which would enhance flooding impacts. Outside of the HIGH risk area, uncertainty increases over northeastern Florida as to how far north and west the northern extent of the precipitation will reach. This uncertainty is largely the result of continued disagreement on the exact track of Ian as it weakens over the Florida Peninsula, along with its interaction with a front currently parked over the northern part of the state. This is likely to result in a very sharp gradient in precipitation. The MRGL, SLGT, and northwestern edge of the MDT risk areas over FL and GA are likely to be adjusted with future updates to the track of Ian. South of the HIGH risk area, expect multiple feeder bands to criss-cross the state from southwest to northeast over southern FL. The exact location of these feeder bands is highly uncertain, but should they set up over the urbanized I-95 corridor, the combination of the wet antecedent conditions from today and likely training convection will enhance the flash flood risk. Thus, in coordination with the MLB/Melbourne and MFL/Miami offices, expanded the MDT south along the coast, and expanded the SLGT through the southern tip of the FL Peninsula. IMPACTS: It is important to note that these high to extreme rainfall totals have the potential to result in catastrophic flooding. Preparations in this area for the arrival of Ian should be rushed to completion. Those in this area are urged to heed all local evacuation orders. Also note that freshwater/inland flooding can also be life-threatening, even well away from any storm surge impacts near the coast. Edited September 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Coastal map, for reference… and I’m off for 💤💤💤 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 28, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) Pressure increased last vort to 954 but so did FL wind by a kit Last vort Eye was open in the east, 30nm wide. Edited September 28, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 High tide view. 🤷♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Those new towers in the NW quadrant mean business. Some observations from Naples which is really the first southwestern Florida city in the line of fire. They've had almost an inch of rain over the last 3 hours and winds 15-20 mph which I found interesting because the NHC has tropical storm force winds reaching the coast. I imagine the Naples Pier Panorama is going to get wild in a few hours. https://naplespanorama.org/ NHC wind field link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/220203.shtml?radii#contents 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 28, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 28, 2022 ADT continues to drop off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 954mb on the last pass… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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