Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[StretchCT]

4 minutes ago, Burr said:

They got power back at the southern point… lights on.

 

You can see when there's a break in the waves, that the water level is right about at the bulkhead, or whatever is there, I forget as it's been a while

Edited September 28, 2022 by StretchCT

[ClicheVortex2014]

Say what you will about the northeast half of Ian, but damn, the southwest half is going crazy

[Burr]

3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Say what you will about the northeast half of Ian, but damn, the southwest half is going crazy

I don’t want to be ‘that guy’ but…the possibility  @MaineJay had mentioned could be right … with the shear coming in from the SW, it is possible that it actually provides better venting and intensification once the storm recovers from the ERC.  Could be enough time left before the next landfall to see it.

[StretchCT]

Now 26ft waves off Key West

[Burr]

[ClicheVortex2014]

6 minutes ago, Burr said:

I don’t want to be ‘that guy’ but…the possibility  @MaineJay had mentioned could be right … with the shear coming in from the SW, it is possible that it actually provides better venting and intensification once the storm recovers from the ERC.  Could be enough time left before the next landfall to see it.

I haven't been paying attention to the thread that much, been distracted... but that's an interesting idea that I really can't argue for or against. There's no doubt shear is starting to affect Ian because it's starting to become more lopsided in favor of the south half. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

Vort message with 952mb, eye open in the west and 30nm wide. Max sfmr wind 106mph and max flight wind 135mph. Those flight level winds are the highest so far, 9mph over the 126mph earlier today. 

Spoiler

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 2:26Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 24
Observation Number: 05

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 2:05:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.68N 83.00W
B. Center Fix Location: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the W (276°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,703m (8,868ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.12 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 85° at 5kts (From the E at 6mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the west
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 89kts (102.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NNW (331°) of center fix at 1:59:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 71° at 102kts (From the ENE at 117.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (327°) of center fix at 1:58:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 92kts (105.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 2:11:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 156° at 117kts (From the SSE at 134.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 2:12:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 2:12:00Z

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by StretchCT

[Columbusbuckeye]

[Burr]

24 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

So far, first run through and 952mb is the lowest hdob.

HDOB Mission 24

Really went looking for it, too…

 

[Columbusbuckeye]

This thing has to be heading for category 4 at any time.  

[ClicheVortex2014]

Eye is re-emerging. Been a while since I saw ERC. Almost got faked out. 

[StretchCT]

You guys remember that shed we were watching that one storm? This is like the new shed. Webcam back on, lights are off though.

[Burr]

2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

You guys remember that shed we were watching that one storm? This is like the new shed. Webcam back on, lights are off though.

High tide in the next hour… looks like water level is just about topping the wall.  Those long benches have about a foot of standing water sloshing around.

[Burr]

Getting ready to make their next pass inbound, I believe…

 

[Sentinel]

19 minutes ago, Burr said:

I don’t want to be ‘that guy’ but…the possibility  @MaineJay had mentioned could be right … with the shear coming in from the SW, it is possible that it actually provides better venting and intensification once the storm recovers from the ERC.  Could be enough time left before the next landfall to see it.

Unfortunately, spot on. This is one of those times where sheer is creating a channel of outflow for the storms. 

 

[tool483]

4 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

You guys remember that shed we were watching that one storm? This is like the new shed. Webcam back on, lights are off though.

really though, I should goto bed but sheesh. The chasers on this one tomorrow, I expect to get zero work done tomorrow lmao, hopefully those in low areas have evacuated. .  

[Burr]

BULLETIN

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022

1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...

INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.9N 82.9W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH... 195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB... 28.12 INCHES

Edited September 28, 2022 by Burr

[ClicheVortex2014]

New storm surge map shows the "up to 12 feet" threshold has expanded south. Very bad situation considering there's at least a few bays/harbors in the area... literally a city called Charlotte Harbor in the 8-12 feet storm surge area.

[StretchCT]

Disco highlights: Still undergoing ERC (seems like they might have written that an hour or two ago), slight shift east in the track as it's nudged right a bit. Shear and dry air may not be enough to overcome the size and depth, although the SW side is flattened (impinged) by the shear. Still max forecast 130mph with it making landfall as cat 4

Spoiler

WTNT44 KNHC 280254
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The hurricane continues to have an impressive appearance on
satellite imagery, exhibiting considerable deep convection with
numerous cloud tops colder than -80C.  An Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter Aircraft recently penetrated the center and found that the 
central pressure had not fallen since earlier this evening.  Based 
on a blend of SFMR-observed surface winds and 700 mb flight-level 
winds from the Air Force plane, the current intensity is held at 
105 kt for now.

Ian has turned slightly to the right and the initial motion is now
015/9 kt.  Over the next couple of days, the tropical cyclone
should move between the western edge of a subtropical high
pressure system and a broad trough over the eastern United
States.  The dynamical model consensus, TVCN, prediction has again
shifted a little to the east, and is just slightly slower on
this cycle.  Therefore the official track forecast has, again, been
shifted a few degrees to the east of the previous one.  This
does not require any change the watches and warnings over Florida at
this time.

Ian's outflow is being restricted over the southwestern portion of
its circulation by southwesterly upper-tropospheric flow over the
Gulf of Mexico.  Vertical shear over the hurricane is likely to
increase up through landfall. The SHIPS guidance and water vapor
imagery suggest that there will also be some dry mid-level air in
the vicinity.   However, it is expected that this large system will
be fairly resilient to the shear and dry air before landfall.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast continues to show Ian
reaching the coast with category 4 intensity.  Since radar imagery
indicates that an eyewall replacement is probably underway,  this
could result in a larger eye evolving overnight.  Interests along
the Florida west coast in the Hurricane Warning area should be
prepared for a large and destructive hurricane, and residents in
this area should heed the advice of emergency management officials.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible, and significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the
center.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west
coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest
risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in these areas
should listen to advice given by local officials and follow any
evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected overnight.  Devastating wind
damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all
preparations to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through 
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast later this week and 
this weekend.  Catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of 
central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida, 
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. 
Widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected 
across central Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 24.9N  82.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 26.0N  82.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 27.2N  81.9W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1200Z 28.2N  81.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 29.3N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  30/1200Z 30.6N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 32.7N  81.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  02/0000Z 36.0N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

New forecast has a major hurricane maintaining inland for a bit. Gotta wonder if there'll be a chance for Category 4 between when it's forecast to be 130 mph over water (hour 12) to 125 mph over land (hour 24). I don't think it's likely but it is possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 24.9N  82.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 26.0N  82.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 27.2N  81.9W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1200Z 28.2N  81.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 29.3N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  30/1200Z 30.6N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 32.7N  81.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  02/0000Z 36.0N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

Eye clearing out on sw infrared.  There's still some weakness on the radar in the south side of it though. 

[Columbusbuckeye]

2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

New forecast has a major hurricane maintaining inland for a bit. Gotta wonder if there'll be a chance for Category 4 between when it's forecast to be 130 mph over water to 125 mph over land.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 24.9N  82.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 26.0N  82.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 27.2N  81.9W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1200Z 28.2N  81.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 29.3N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  30/1200Z 30.6N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 32.7N  81.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  02/0000Z 36.0N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

I feel like it will be a Category 4 before it makes landfall.  

[Burr]

I’m going to wait to see what they find before I head to sleep…

[StretchCT]

 

[StretchCT]

5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Gotta wonder if there'll be a chance for Category

In the disco - NHC thinks so