Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) Interesting to see storm(s?) pop up in the eye wall that are so intense that the anvil covers up half the eye. Can't imagine it'll last long given all the subsidence in the eye. Edited September 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 Not a search and rescue but a buoy drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) Is this really just a meso? Warning is pretty far south.... Edited September 27, 2022 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TLChip said: Is this really just a meso? There has to be a tornado on the ground with this one, the signature is intense! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, TLChip said: Is this really just a meso? I'd call that a probable tornado but no debris signature means it was just a rapidly rotating wall/funnel or it was a tornado that did no damage. I'd guess it was the latter because it seems like there's not much around in southwestern Florida. I see the issued a warning for it now. 3 minutes late but they've got a lot on their plate. Edited September 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I'd call that a probable tornado but no debris signature means it was just a rapidly rotating wall/funnel or it was a tornado that did no damage. I see the issued a warning for it now. 3 minutes late but they've got a lot on their plate. Not too much in the area to really make a debris signature tbh but there should be at least something small. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) I was going to say that the opening in the southern eyewall was hurting it, but it's been like that the last 30 frames. Edited September 27, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, ak9971 said: Not too much in the area to really make a debris signature tbh but there should be at least something small. The beam is looking 2200 feet above ground in that area... so if there was damage, it'd take an EF1 (or so) to throw debris up that high. Gate-to-gate rotation was almost 100 mph... so it is possible that there was a tornado but debris just couldn't make it that high. There's a lot of different things that could cause the tornado to not throw debris up to that height... for example, that strong rotation likely didn't last long and therefore might not have hit anything or the updraft weakened before it could lift something to that height. Mid-level rotation could've been stronger than what was going on at the ground. Unfortunately we'll never know Edited September 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: The beam is looking 2200 feet above ground in that area... so if there was damage, it'd take an EF1 (or so) to throw debris up that high. Gate-to-gate rotation was almost 100 mph... so it is possible that there was a tornado but debris just couldn't make it that high. There's a lot of different things that could cause the tornado to not throw debris up to that height... for example, that strong of rotation likely didn't last long and therefore might not have hit anything or the updraft weakened before it could. Mid-level rotation could've been stronger than what was going on at the ground. Unfortunately we'll never know Do gators give off a debris signature? I mean with the Everglades and all...Gatornados! 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Psu1313 said: Do gators give off a debris signature? I mean with the Everglades and all...Gatornados! Sounds like a new movie lol! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: Do gators give off a debris signature? I mean with the Everglades and all...Gatornados! Hey, it is possible! I mean, they'd be dead by the time they landed in their new street/lawn/field (hopefully not home) There's been times where a waterspout comes on shore and causes fish to fly from the sky Edited September 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: Do gators give off a debris signature? I mean with the Everglades and all...Gatornados! Only in Florida! 😆 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC... INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 83.2W ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH... 195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB... 28.12 INCHES Edited September 27, 2022 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 From the 5pm discussion: The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The eye of Ian remains well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages. The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data. The plane data also showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the east side of the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) And the 5pm Cone of Uncertainty! I was not kidding earlier about those barrier islands getting reshaped. Edited September 27, 2022 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) Disco highlights - 952, 105kt, hurricane winds growing on East side. Moving just east of due north at 9kt. Models keeping it stronger, deeper vertically and faster. Outflow is impinged on SW side. ERC probably taking place. Bigger system might be more resistant to shear. Max forecast is still 130 Spoiler Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The eye of Ian remains well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages. The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data. The plane data also showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the east side of the cyclone. Ian is moving east-of-due-north, or 010/9-kt, with occasional wobbles to the north-northeast. A track toward the north-northeast is expected for the next couple of days while it moves between a ridge over the Bahamas and a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. There has been some model convergence this afternoon showing Ian remaining stronger and vertically deeper through landfall. This solution results in a faster track, again adjusted to the southeast, and the new forecast is moved in that direction. This new NHC track is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering features leading to big speed and track differences down the line, not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. In a few days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5 track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant re-strengthening is not expected at long range. The outflow pattern of the hurricane is beginning to be impinged upon in the southwestern quadrant, a sign that upper-level southwesterly flow is starting to affect the outer circulation. While the shear should increase up through landfall, it is just too close-to-call whether it starts to weaken Ian or not, or whether the larger system is able to resist the shear. Additionally, an eyewall replacement cycle could be in its initial phases, although predicting these structural changes is extremely difficult. The new forecast is near the last one, a little higher than the consensus. I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents should heed the advice of local emergency management officials. The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Warning for portions of extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a warning. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is increasingly likely along the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and follow any evacuation orders for your area. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all preparations to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect most of the Florida Peninsula for the next several days, spreading to the rest of the Southeast U.S. by Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding is expected with widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 24.0N 83.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 30/0600Z 29.4N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1800Z 31.0N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/1800Z 34.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Edited September 27, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) Now that's a tornado. Only radar indicated right now but that's definitely a debris signature. Edited September 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Only thing out there is grass and water so I don't know how that shows up in a debris signature. Maybe some palmetto trees and cypress 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 Sky is getting crowded! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I went looking for those stadium shots from the hurricane hunters. Love those. Haven't found much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 44 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Interesting to see storm(s?) pop up in the eye wall that are so intense that the anvil covers up half the eye. Can't imagine it'll last long given all the subsidence in the eye. I was thinking the same thing!!! Anvil-topped hurricane. Technology is amazing. Don’t take my satellites away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 Observed tornado crossing into SE Collier County, Florida. It's heading towards Trail City, FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Probably tons of waterspouts out there near the Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 Tide chart for Estero Island by Bonita Springs Captiva Sarasota 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, junior said: Probably tons of waterspouts out there near the Keys. Maybe that was just some dry air that got into into the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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