Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 Someone was asking about flying over Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Someone was asking about flying over Cuba 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 Mission 22 might be in a search pattern north of Ian. Currently flying at 5000 feet. But they are running sfmr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Comparison of near-landfall strength and location between GFS and Euro... GFS is 12 hours slower than Euro. Euro is stronger at near-landfall. Near-landfall location isn't too far off. GFS drops more precip by far. Even though GFS is weaker, I'd say that is the more deadly and possibly costly scenario. Storm surge causes nearly half of hurricane-related deaths (49%), and GFS would provide more time to whip up some storm surge. Also, adding more rain on top of that only exacerbates the situation because flooding makes up for 27% of hurricane deaths. Would re-make the shorelines of Captiva and Sanibel islands on that trajectory… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 Could be a well timed ERC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, StretchCT said: Could be a well timed ERC Not too soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Awesome lightning gif 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, 1816 said: Not too soon? Perhaps.. thinking that we knock it down now a little bit, beat up the core with an ERC, then have the shear come in and keep it from recovering. Yeah, I guess that's wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Perhaps.. thinking that we knock it down now a little bit, beat up the core with an ERC, then have the shear come in and keep it from recovering. Yeah, I guess that's wishcasting. Since I'm doing gifs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 adjT just took the slightest dip down so could mean we are leveling off or could just be a blip either way I’m watching this thing till landfall. Impressive cane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 27, 2022 Big time burst of lightning in the northern eye wall. Strong intensification coming 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) We don’t want the eyewall replacement cycle to form too soon and complete that would make this wind field even larger i think we would ideally want it to start tonight sometime so it doesn’t finish the concentric looking eyewalls on radar make me think Ian is going to cycle pretty quickly Edited September 27, 2022 by Poco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 here you can see the erc probability spiking within the last two hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 Oh my! Actual screen shot 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) Confirmed tornado west of Miami. Looking at the actual tornado here since the beam reaches only 500 feet above ground once it reaches the storm. There was a debris signature for at least 12 minutes... unlikely the tornado was on the ground the entire time, it's just that the debris stuck around for that long. Edited September 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Perhaps.. thinking that we knock it down now a little bit, beat up the core with an ERC, then have the shear come in and keep it from recovering. Yeah, I guess that's wishcasting. Think you could be on to something here. Or it could be subomtimally timed and go the other way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, StretchCT said: Oh my! Actual screen shot Filed under this was done on purpose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Poco said: here you can see the erc probability spiking within the last two hours Notice did how the vmax to the right dips and the raises again above where it is now. makes me wonder if this will pull off a quick erc and expand the max wind field and make this all the much worse Edited September 27, 2022 by Poco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 27, 2022 Several unwarned rotating storms that could go warned at any second 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 (edited) A full Erc normally take about 8-12 hours (roughly) or so then the hurricane itself goes through an expansion process to boot so I think i feel like it’s going to be real hard to go through a complete erc and wind field expansion before landfall meteorology is crazy so who knows but this is definitely one to watch Edited September 27, 2022 by Poco 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 Key West station seeing 39kt gusts Buoy 42026 at TS Force with 35kt sus and 42kt g. This buoy is in the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian’s going to spawn lots of these I assume? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TLChip said: Ian’s going to spawn lots of these I assume? I'm worried about central fl/Orlando. They used to have a ride/exhibit at Universal studios for the movie twister. I think life might imitate art. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 27, 2022 The second wind maxima are 71 miles away from each other. They come and go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 27, 2022 New tornado watch coming. Imagine that. Mesoscale Discussion 1835 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Areas affected...Southern FL and the FL Keys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 272027Z - 272100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A new Tornado Watch will be issued for South FL and the FL Keys by 21Z. DISCUSSION...The supercell tornado risk will continue across southern FL and the Keys on the northeastern side of Hurricane Ian, and gradually spread northward through this afternoon into the overnight hours. Therefore, a new Tornado Watch will be issued by 21Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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