Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 EPS, gfs and cmc ensemble members 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 (edited) little bit of rotation evident at the lower levels Edited September 22, 2022 by Poco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Poco said: little bit of rotation evident at the lower levels Looks like a ton of northerly shear. Perhaps from Fiona's outflow? It might be making it down there and once she pulls away could help develop this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 Wide envelope http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2022&storm=98&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 12z suite seems to temper the top end and western side of the track a bit. Seeing that 98L has not even matured enough to reach named status we have a long ways to go. Latest NHC 70/90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/index.php tepid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Perhaps from Fiona's outflow? It might be making it down there and once she pulls away could help develop this one. This was the graphic I was looking for. Might be from the ULL east of the islands too, or a combo. or this one Edited September 22, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 Better view of the surface circulation(s). Still see the tops being shredded off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 22, 2022 (edited) A friend in North Carolina already texted me asking about "the hurricane". I assumed he meant Fiona because this storm isn't even named yet, but he did mean this one because I guess he's going to a Clemson game next Saturday. So I guess the cat has been let out of the bag in the local media in North Carolina. A little early, but I don't see a hurricane not verifying from this tropical wave. Edited September 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: A friend in North Carolina already texted me asking about "the hurricane". I assumed he meant Fiona because this storm isn't even named yet, but he did mean this one because I guess he's going to a Clemson game next Saturday. So I guess the cat has been let out of the bag in the local media in North Carolina. A little early, but I don't see a hurricane not verifying from this tropical wave. With Fiona being a problem only for shipping traffic right now I understand this. 98L is looking like a very high impact storm potentially for multiple US areas. I'm a little worried about my neck of the woods already after this thing gets done thrashing Pensacola or whatever. We can get catastrophic flooding with tropical systems like this as well as an odd tornado or few depending where it tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 22, 2022 Yikes! GFS 5-run trend: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted September 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 22, 2022 I created a Twitter thread discussing model bias and just some general thoughts about 98L. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, Ingyball said: I created a Twitter thread discussing model bias and just some general thoughts about 98L. I don't know if you agree but I believe most models have an underestimating bias as far as intensity goes. If they are showing weakening due to factors, then they can definitely get it right. But if it's projecting a moderate or moderately strong storm without any obvious reason for limiting the intensity they seem to miss badly quite often. And those storms go freaking bonkers usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted September 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, 1816 said: I don't know if you agree but I believe most models have an underestimating bias as far as intensity goes. If they are showing weakening due to factors, then they can definitely get it right. But if it's projecting a moderate or moderately strong storm without any obvious reason for limiting the intensity they seem to miss badly quite often. And those storms go freaking bonkers usually. Yup, intensity forecasting is still something we're not great at. I'm definitely concerned that this thing could blow up big time if it moves into the Northwest Caribbean and into the Yucatan Channel. Models are showing some absolutely amazing upper level ventilation with the storm in that area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 22, 2022 (edited) An important aspect of rapid intensification is the depth of a warm pool. Obviously, the Caribbean is ready for takeoff... but the GoM is still pretty primed. I don't know exactly what GFS considers with oceanic heat aside from SSTs, but I have questions about how deep the ocean temps go for the model, and how reliable it is. I'm more inclined to believe tropical models are better at handling RI. So, seeing how deep the GFS is getting with this storm under this assumption, it's concerning. Shear still seems to be the limiting factor for coastal impact... but if GFS is underestimating this already intense storm, then the strength at landfall could still be quite significant. Edited September 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted September 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: An important aspect of rapid intensification is the depth of a warm pool. Obviously, the Caribbean is ready for takeoff... but the GoM is still pretty primed. I don't know exactly what GFS considers with oceanic heat aside from SSTs, but I have questions about how deep the ocean temps go for the model, and how reliable it is. I'm more inclined to believe tropical models are better at handling RI. So, seeing how deep the GFS is getting with this storm under this assumption, it's concerning. Shear still seems to be the limiting factor for coastal impact... but if GFS is underestimating this already intense storm, then the strength at landfall could still be quite significant. Assuming this heads towards the Florida Panhandle or northern Gulf landfall intensity will almost not matter. There's a good chance that this could "only" be a high end Cat-2 at landfall but in the scenario of this storm bombing out in the Caribbean and Gulf that damage is already done. We're looking at a potential Ike situation where a Cat-2 produced a 20+ foot storm surge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJKuo Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 39 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: An important aspect of rapid intensification is the depth of a warm pool. Obviously, the Caribbean is ready for takeoff... but the GoM is still pretty primed. I don't know exactly what GFS considers with oceanic heat aside from SSTs, but I have questions about how deep the ocean temps go for the model, and how reliable it is. I'm more inclined to believe tropical models are better at handling RI. So, seeing how deep the GFS is getting with this storm under this assumption, it's concerning. Shear still seems to be the limiting factor for coastal impact... but if GFS is underestimating this already intense storm, then the strength at landfall could still be quite significant. If Fiona has been able to maintain 130 mph/932mb over the "modest" ocean heat content north of the Bahama in contrast to what's in the Caribbean, then things are going to be certainly dicey with 98L 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJKuo Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 18z HWRF showing a healthy 140mph cane at hr 123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 minute ago, DJKuo said: 18z HWRF showing a healthy 140mph cane at hr 123 So glad that I'm out of Florida! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted September 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 23, 2022 That's an absolutely giant storm lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 23, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Ingyball said: That's an absolutely giant storm lol Interesting aspect with the hurricane moving into the cold front. Pretty similar to Fiona moving into the cold front soon. Probably not too uncommon for hurricanes to merge with a cold front, but pretty crazy to have it happen twice in such quick succession. Especially with it happening just before landfall both times. Edited September 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 23, 2022 This is one of the worst potential solution so far. Quick landfall into Florida before shear can really weaken it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 23, 2022 Pretty similar track to Hurricane Charley. Certainly a precedent for RI coming soon off western Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 23, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 23, 2022 5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Pretty similar track to Hurricane Charley. Certainly a precedent for RI coming soon off western Cuba. There are situations where shear can actually cause RI in hurricanes. Currently, it appears the convection is out running the low level circulation, but they look like they are trying to align. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 We now have TD 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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