Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[clm]

2 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

He know his area better than anyone so he hopefully has an idea as to how flood prone his location is. My only concern is that some areas that wouldn't flood, will flood, with the deluge that is about to occur. It's just impossible to pinpoint exact locations. 

While you can know your area very well, its the surrounding areas that could also pose a danger.

 

[Sentinel]

1 hour ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

There's never a shortage of lawyers and contractors. They're like roaches...lol...

 

1 hour ago, TheRex said:

I'd hate to get a notice saying that my insurer is insolvent while a hurricane is headed my way.  The state may take over the claims but I'd expect trying to talk to an insurance adjuster will be much tougher now.  If this hurricane ends up in the worst case range, I suspect other insurers will fail also.  Or the insurers will fight like hell saying your house was damaged by flooding and washed away before it got blown away.  After this storm there may well be a shortage off lawyers in Florida as well as a builder shortage.

Some of what I do is Loss Control Consulting. Most people think I am attempting to save the Insurance Company money, however, I am actually attempting to inform the Insured about Risk while also attempting to point out where they could be exceedingly vulnerable. 

Many persons also do not realize that policy limits -In catastrophic events- are routinely exhausted before a person is made whole. IE, your Insurance policy is exhausted before the you have been able to repair everything you need to. 

[NWOhioChaser]

21 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Eye clearing out.  ADT back up into Cat 4 range.

 

Can really it see it start to clear the eye out again.

[StretchCT]

2 minutes ago, Tater said:

Didn't Cuba weaken Charley more than it did Ian?

Good question.  

Charley passed the Isle of Youths with 105mph winds, 976mb at 17mph. Next advisory was between Isle of Youth and mainland Cuba at 975mph and 105.  Next was 14 miles west of Havana moving at 17mph and 105mph winds 973mb. The 5am advisory had it off the coast moving at 18mph 110mph winds and 970 pressure.  So it seems that Charley passed very quickly over the island and didn't weaken. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/CHARLEY.shtml?

[Burr]

For anyone in Florida’s target area who is shrugging this off, that clearing of the eye might get them to change their mind…

… there’s about 24 hours or so left til a ‘go/no-go’ decision for anyone to evacuate a flood zone.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Burr

[Sentinel]

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

Good question.  

Charley passed the Isle of Youths with 105mph winds, 976mb at 17mph. Next advisory was between Isle of Youth and mainland Cuba at 975mph and 105.  Next was 14 miles west of Havana moving at 17mph and 105mph winds 973mb. The 5am advisory had it off the coast moving at 18mph 110mph winds and 970 pressure.  So it seems that Charley passed very quickly over the island and didn't weaken. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/CHARLEY.shtml?

Charley was a nightmare. Explosive RI just prior LF causing a sharp right hand turn. Law enforcement and other emergency services were going door to door in Tampa to evacuate at the last minute. 

[StretchCT]

16z vort message  - 961mb, eye closed 19nm wide. 106mph inbound SFMR wind, 123mph max flight wind

Spoiler

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 16:12Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 17

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 15:46:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.13N 83.47W
B. Center Fix Location: 70 statute miles (113 km) to the W (271°) from Havana, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,746m (9,009ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 961mb (28.38 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 115° at 4kts (From the ESE at 5mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 92kts (105.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the NW (316°) of center fix at 15:44:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 41° at 82kts (From the NE at 94.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix at 15:43:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 82kts (94.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the E (98°) of center fix at 15:49:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 186° at 107kts (From the S at 123.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (87°) of center fix at 15:51:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,035m (9,957ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.25 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 107kts (~ 123.1mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (87°) from the flight level center at 15:51:00Z

 

[StretchCT]

Crazy amount of lightning in the core now.  

[FortySixAnd32]

7 minutes ago, Burr said:

For anyone in Florida’s target area who is shrugging this off, that clearing of the eye might get them to change their mind…

… there’s about 24 hours or so left til a ‘go/no-go’ decision for anyone to evacuate a flood zone.

Really looks to be moving NE. Not NNE.

[Psu1313]

27 minutes ago, clm said:

While you can know your area very well, its the surrounding areas that could also pose a danger.

 

I don't disagree and that needs to be a part of the assessment in staying or going. I cannot imagine 24 inches of rain, so unless I was chasing the storm and had a plan and a backup plan, I would get out of dodge. 

Ian seems to want to ride the Tower of Terror at Disney with the way his track is evolving. 

[1816]

Oh yeah it's on now. I'd be getting the hell out of the way of this one. It's giving me that vibe. The one only hurricanes can give you where you start to feel like the computers cannot quite get a handle on just how pissed off mother nature is right now. 

[StretchCT]

1 minute ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

Really looks to be moving NE. Not NNE.

Was noticing that too.  Want to wait to see if it's a wobble or a trend.  Further NE means faster arrival, further south and possibly even making it back out over the Atlantic.  That would be a coup for the Ukie/Icon/NAM combo.  They have TS warnings up for GA/SC, but I don't think anyone's paying attention to that. 

[StretchCT]

Sounds ominous.

 

[Sentinel]

Just now, StretchCT said:

Was noticing that too.  Want to wait to see if it's a wobble or a trend.  Further NE means faster arrival, further south and possibly even making it back out over the Atlantic.  That would be a coup for the Ukie/Icon/NAM combo.  They have TS warnings up for GA/SC, but I don't think anyone's paying attention to that. 

IMO - This has a pretty good chance of re-emerging over the Atlantic on the East side of FL. We will see, but synoptically it makes sense to me. 

 

[NWOhioChaser]

7 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Crazy amount of lightning in the core now.  

Yup, he's a strengthening for sure. Just as forecasted

[StretchCT]

See, you can learn stuff from Twitter!

 

[StretchCT]

Hard to trust some of these sfmr winds given lack of support from flight level winds. The latest 99kt at least is surrounded by a 93kt and 101kt (tainted by rain). 

[clm]

I could be wrong but that may be blue I see in the eye.  Could it be clear down to the water?

[StretchCT]

AI-ADT

[FortySixAnd32]

6 minutes ago, clm said:

I could be wrong but that may be blue I see in the eye.  Could it be clear down to the water?

I saw it too!!

[TLChip]

Yeah I think we’re seeing water through Ian’s eye now. Guess he’s going to see how big and strong he can get before hitting Florida now, let’s hope shear takes off some steam. 
 

If you look close enough I think you can see mesovortices on the edge of the eye wall as well.

Edited September 27, 2022 by TLChip

[TLChip]

Looks like we already have a tornado in Florida. 
 

 

[MaineJay]

23 minutes ago, clm said:

I could be wrong but that may be blue I see in the eye.  Could it be clear down to the water?

If you want detail, I recommend the RAMMB sites.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=936.952392578125&y=1068.9761962890625&z=3&angle=0&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=70&motion=loop&maps[borders]=white&mops[borders]=0.95&lat=0&p[0]=band_02&opacity[0]=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[TLChip]

4 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

If you want detail, I recommend the RAMMB sites.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=936.952392578125&y=1068.9761962890625&z=3&angle=0&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=70&motion=loop&maps[borders]=white&mops[borders]=0.95&lat=0&p[0]=band_02&opacity[0]=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Wow look at the explosiveness of that convection on the north side, bubbly looking.

[clm]

5 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Wow look at the explosiveness of that convection on the north side, bubbly looking.

Nah, the marshmallow was a tad overcooked on that side.