Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[NWOhioChaser]

Welp, think it's safe to say Cat. 4 will be reached sometime today. 

[LUCC]

Have any models initialized close to the strength of Ian at 6z? I see GFS is 979, CMC 984, ICON 974, NAM 12k 966/3k 1003, etc.

 

As of 8a ET Ian was 950mb.

Edited September 27, 2022 by LUCC

[ak9971]

Northern eyewall still looks in decent shape as it begins to move off the coast of Cuba. 
 

[TLChip]

18 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

I 100% agree with you. Unfortunately the engineering side of construction is only just now realizing that tornadoes are a completely different risk vs straight line winds due to vertical motion (oops) so it's going to be a long process before we see new building codes for all buildings to resist tornadoes. 

There’s so many variables in construction, owners look at finish and cost, architects have been going for complicated over ease of install. Engineers are all over the place at times (I’ve seen some questionable designs over the last 3 years). The labor force is you get what you get right now as well. 
 

I worry about loss of life in said buildings over the actual building (hospitals, etc should be built as strong as reasonably possible for any conditions they may see). Those houses turn into weapons once they’re in the air and cause more damage to existing buildings. I’d go middle ground for houses, if you’re likely to see strong tornadoes I’d go with EF3 ratings and a storm cellar. The cost up front is minor vs a family being displaced and losing everything (really only so much you can do after EF3 with a house in a decent budget). 

[Tater]

11 hours ago, Tater said:

I suspect Ian will struggle to get past a Cat 3 hurricane.

I think it's time to issue an official retraction. 

My calculations didn't include Ian continuing to strengthen into a Cat 3 as he made landfall in Cuba. I think we are seeing an overperformer here, and that's not good for Florida.

[Psu1313]

This state of Florida press conference is painful. They defined Venice as the landfalling point (instead of keeping it broad) and are telling folks in the I-4 corridor that it won't be a Cat 3 by time it gets there. Additionally, they are saying it looks like it is going to cross over into the Atlantic. All these things are possible, but none of those things are set in stone. 

[TLChip]

1 minute ago, Psu1313 said:

This state of Florida press conference is painful. They defined Venice as the landfalling point (instead of keeping it broad) and are telling folks in the I-4 corridor that it won't be a Cat 3 by time it gets there. Additionally, they are saying it looks like it is going to cross over into the Atlantic. All these things are possible, but none of those things are set in stone. 

Yeah my uncle is outside of Tampa but inland. He’s rode every hurricane out recently and after talking to him last night I think he wants to stay. Hoping he’s not underwater by Friday. 

[Psu1313]

1 minute ago, TLChip said:

Yeah my uncle is outside of Tampa but inland. He’s rode every hurricane out recently and after talking to him last night I think he wants to stay. Hoping he’s not underwater by Friday. 

He know his area better than anyone so he hopefully has an idea as to how flood prone his location is. My only concern is that some areas that wouldn't flood, will flood, with the deluge that is about to occur. It's just impossible to pinpoint exact locations. 

[MaineJay]

This buoy is directly in the path of Ian, roughly 150 nautical miles north.

[Iceresistance]

59 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Welp, think it's safe to say Cat. 4 will be reached sometime today. 

I think it did overnight because Recon found 947 mb over Cuba and the Eyewall was extremely impressive when it made landfall. 

[TLChip]

Yeah last night I think it swallowed the dry air so it could turn it into the eye 😂

[Iceresistance]

Just now, TLChip said:

Yeah last night I think it swallowed the dry air so it could turn it into the eye 😂

Ian might be one of the few TC that has weaponized the dry air to create the eye. 

[junior]

I'm impressed the eye got clearer as it moved over Cuba.

[TLChip]

Good looking eye after rolling over land for hours 

 

Looks like the GFS is the only one stick to the stall plan? Hard to see on mobile sorry. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by TLChip

[1816]

1 hour ago, Psu1313 said:

This state of Florida press conference is painful. They defined Venice as the landfalling point (instead of keeping it broad) and are telling folks in the I-4 corridor that it won't be a Cat 3 by time it gets there. Additionally, they are saying it looks like it is going to cross over into the Atlantic. All these things are possible, but none of those things are set in stone. 

I get that they need to get the word out but being specific this far out is not smart. We've seem too many last minute changes to try that.

 

The stall is the thing here and I remember seeing the pictures out of Houston during Harvey. Models might be undergoing these rainfall totals. Everywhere floods when you get 40 inches of rain in a day or two. 

[Iceresistance]

Recon has confirmed that the center of Ian is now in the GoM

[Snow____]

Just logged back in for the first time in months. This now a serious situations and I hope all my Florida peeps stay safe and heed warnings if you are in the path of this. 

[TheRex]

8 hours ago, Uscg Ast said:

Speaking of

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/2022/09/26/6th-property-insurer-in-florida-declared-insolvent/?outputType=amp

I'd hate to get a notice saying that my insurer is insolvent while a hurricane is headed my way.  The state may take over the claims but I'd expect trying to talk to an insurance adjuster will be much tougher now.  If this hurricane ends up in the worst case range, I suspect other insurers will fail also.  Or the insurers will fight like hell saying your house was damaged by flooding and washed away before it got blown away.  After this storm there may well be a shortage off lawyers in Florida as well as a builder shortage.

[FortySixAnd32]

1 minute ago, TheRex said:

I'd hate to get a notice saying that my insurer is insolvent while a hurricane is headed my way.  The state may take over the claims but I'd expect trying to talk to an insurance adjuster will be much tougher now.  If this hurricane ends up in the worst case range, I suspect other insurers will fail also.  Or the insurers will fight like hell saying your house was damaged by flooding and washed away before it got blown away.  After this storm there may well be a shortage off lawyers in Florida as well as a builder shortage.

There's never a shortage of lawyers and contractors. They're like roaches...lol...

[StretchCT]

Ian leaving Cuba

 

Land took its toll on the pressure, which is up 13mb and winds are down 10mph at 115.

 11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 27
Location: 23.0°N 83.5°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 963 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

Disco in spoiler.  Highlights are that they lowered the max winds to 130mph. Confirmed 947 was the pressure as it hit Cuba. Eye filled and Ian has grown in size. Noticeable trend in Ian remaining intact through landfall and not expected to go as slow as previously forecast.  Ian has a day to regenerate in "light shear 

 

Spoiler

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The well-defined eye of Ian emerged off the coast of western Cuba
about an hour ago.  Earlier reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Ian strengthened up through landfall, with an
estimated pressure of 947 mb over western Cuba.  While the hurricane
has filled somewhat due to the passage over Cuba, Air Force Reserve
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data show that it has grown in size.  The
initial wind speed is set to 100 kt.

Ian is moving northward, or 005/9 kt. Dropsonde data from the NOAA
G-IV aircraft indicate a potent upper-level trough is over the
western Gulf of Mexico.  The strength of this trough, the associated
southwesterly flow, and the vertical depth of Ian appear to be the
keys to the forecast.  There has been a notable trend toward the
hurricane remaining more intact up through landfall, meaning Ian is
likely to turn to the northeast and not move as slowly as previously
anticipated.  However, it should be emphasized that this track
remains very uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida.  The latest
forecast is adjusted to the southeast for this advisory, showing
landfall 6-12 hours faster than before, and we will have to see if
the southern trend continues in the afternoon guidance.  The rest of
the forecast after landfall has been adjusted to the northeast as
well, though it is still slower than the consensus guidance at
longer range.

The hurricane should remain in a favorable environment for
restrengthening over the next day or so while it moves over the warm
waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in light-shear
conditions.  While the shear should increase by tomorrow, it isn't
expected to be enough to significantly weaken the hurricane before
landfall.  Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this
scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for an
extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida.

The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Watch for portions of
extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a watch.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind,
storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods
and possible mudslides are expected to continue in portions of
western Cuba today. Devastating wind damage is expected near the
core of Ian.

2. Life-threatening storm surge looks increasingly likely along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect,
with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region.
Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local
officials and follow evacuation orders if made for your area.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening.  Residents
should rush all preparations to completion today.

4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south
Florida today, spreading into central and northern Florida tonight
and Wednesday, into the Southeast U.S.  by Thursday and Friday,
likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable
flooding is expected across central Florida into southern Georgia
and coastal South Carolina, with widespread, prolonged moderate to
major river flooding expected across central Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 23.0N  83.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 24.4N  83.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 26.0N  83.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 27.1N  82.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 27.8N  82.1W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 60H  30/0000Z 28.5N  81.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/1200Z 29.5N  81.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  01/1200Z 33.0N  81.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  02/1200Z 35.0N  81.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

 

[StretchCT]

1 hour ago, LUCC said:

Have any models initialized close to the strength of Ian at 6z? I see GFS is 979, CMC 984, ICON 974, NAM 12k 966/3k 1003, etc.

 

As of 8a ET Ian was 950mb.

So lets take a look at what we have so far

6z GFS has 980 for 2pm edt (18z)

Spoiler

 

6z Euro has 972 for 18z

Spoiler

 

12z NAM at 973

Spoiler

6z hwrf at 952

Spoiler

HMON 962

Spoiler

NAVGEM and CMC don't do well with pressure and hurricanes - they are in the 980s.  Icon is 971.

Going to current 15z forecast, HWRF a little low at 954. HMON is 962. Both those models deepen the storm and maintain it in the 940s to landfall. 

 

 

[StretchCT]

I've been comparing Ian to Charley.  Spoiler has an excerpt from the Service Assessment

We've focused on the track similarities, but some of the differences that make Ian worse are that Charley was smaller, had less time as a Cat 4, was moving at 25mph, had relatively small area of hurricane force winds.  This lead to lower than expected storm surge, and Charley also hit on an outgoing tide.   

Spoiler

Preface
Hurricane Charley made landfall on the southwest coast of Florida near Cayo
Costa, just west of Ft. Myers around 3:45 p.m. EDT on August 13, with maximum
sustained surface winds near 150 mph. This made Charley a category 4 storm on the
Saffir-Simpson Scale. The maximum storm surge associated with Charley was six to
seven feet on Sanibel and Estero Islands. This was less than expected due to a number of
factors including an increase in the storm’s speed, the eyewall shrinking, and the tide
receding. Charley then moved north-northeastward causing significant damage across
the Florida peninsula from Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, Orlando, to Palm Coast (north of
Daytona Beach). Charley caused ten direct fatalities in the U.S. and an estimated $14
billion in economic losses. It was a harbinger of things to come, being the first of four
hurricanes to affect Florida in August and September of 2004.

This assessment evaluates the service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) before and during the
landfall of Hurricane Charley and provides recommendations to improve services in the
future. It takes into consideration the affected audiences in the media and emergency
management communities as well as the public. 

Executive Summary
Hurricane Charley was a small but powerful hurricane. It intensified rapidly just
before moving onshore near Cayo Costa, Florida on August 13, 2004 as a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is rare for hurricanes to make landfall as a
category 4 or 5 and to intensify rapidly just before making landfall. Charley’s storm
surge (maximum of six to seven feet) was relatively low for a category 4 because the
hurricane force winds were confined to a small area and the storm was moving at 25
mph. However, there were ten direct fatalities in the U.S. associated with Charley, and
preliminary estimates of the total damage and economic loss were $14 billion. Charley
was the third costliest hurricane in the U.S. behind Katrina (August 2005) and Andrew
(August 1992).
 The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted the center of Hurricane Charley
to make landfall near Tampa Bay, Florida as a category 3 hurricane throughout most of
its lifetime. NHC had placed much of Florida’s gulf coast under hurricane watches and
warnings approximately 24 to 36 hours before landfall, and they had highlighted the area
for possible landfall for four days. However, a slight easterly shift in Charley’s track
toward the coast south of Tampa less than three hours before landfall caused some coastal
residents to feel they had inadequate time to prepare. Media and residents seemed to
have focused only on the exact forecasted track of the center of Charley, rather than the
cone of uncertainty which NHC had included in these track forecasts.

 

[StretchCT]

Eye clearing out.  ADT back up into Cat 4 range.

 

[Tater]

16 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I've been comparing Ian to Charley.  Spoiler has an excerpt from the Service Assessment

We've focused on the track similarities, but some of the differences that make Ian worse are that Charley was smaller, had less time as a Cat 4, was moving at 25mph, had relatively small area of hurricane force winds.  This lead to lower than expected storm surge, and Charley also hit on an outgoing tide.   

  Reveal hidden contents

Preface
Hurricane Charley made landfall on the southwest coast of Florida near Cayo
Costa, just west of Ft. Myers around 3:45 p.m. EDT on August 13, with maximum
sustained surface winds near 150 mph. This made Charley a category 4 storm on the
Saffir-Simpson Scale. The maximum storm surge associated with Charley was six to
seven feet on Sanibel and Estero Islands. This was less than expected due to a number of
factors including an increase in the storm’s speed, the eyewall shrinking, and the tide
receding. Charley then moved north-northeastward causing significant damage across
the Florida peninsula from Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, Orlando, to Palm Coast (north of
Daytona Beach). Charley caused ten direct fatalities in the U.S. and an estimated $14
billion in economic losses. It was a harbinger of things to come, being the first of four
hurricanes to affect Florida in August and September of 2004.

This assessment evaluates the service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) before and during the
landfall of Hurricane Charley and provides recommendations to improve services in the
future. It takes into consideration the affected audiences in the media and emergency
management communities as well as the public. 

Executive Summary
Hurricane Charley was a small but powerful hurricane. It intensified rapidly just
before moving onshore near Cayo Costa, Florida on August 13, 2004 as a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is rare for hurricanes to make landfall as a
category 4 or 5 and to intensify rapidly just before making landfall. Charley’s storm
surge (maximum of six to seven feet) was relatively low for a category 4 because the
hurricane force winds were confined to a small area and the storm was moving at 25
mph. However, there were ten direct fatalities in the U.S. associated with Charley, and
preliminary estimates of the total damage and economic loss were $14 billion. Charley
was the third costliest hurricane in the U.S. behind Katrina (August 2005) and Andrew
(August 1992).
 The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted the center of Hurricane Charley
to make landfall near Tampa Bay, Florida as a category 3 hurricane throughout most of
its lifetime. NHC had placed much of Florida’s gulf coast under hurricane watches and
warnings approximately 24 to 36 hours before landfall, and they had highlighted the area
for possible landfall for four days. However, a slight easterly shift in Charley’s track
toward the coast south of Tampa less than three hours before landfall caused some coastal
residents to feel they had inadequate time to prepare. Media and residents seemed to
have focused only on the exact forecasted track of the center of Charley, rather than the
cone of uncertainty which NHC had included in these track forecasts.

All very good points.

Didn't Cuba weaken Charley more than it did Ian? Perhaps since Ian is larger it had more area over water helping to provide energy to sustain itself.