Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[Iceresistance]

@1816 I know a guy named Ian, AKA Ssundee on YT. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Iceresistance

[TLChip]

Well if Ian got that strong overnight with some interference, what happens tonight sitting in the GOM? 😖

[MaineJay]

14 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Well if Ian got that strong overnight with some interference, what happens tonight sitting in the GOM? 😖

GFS trend.  I'll continue to try and keep the discussion balanced. I think he peaked.

 

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

GFS trend.  I'll continue to try and keep the discussion balanced. I think he peaked.

 

I'm not sure he has peaked yet, the NHC is forecasting a 140 mph peak over the GOM before the wind shear kicks in. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Iceresistance

[MaineJay]

11 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I'm not sure he has peaked yet, the NHC is forecasting a 140 mph peak over the GOM before the wind shear kicks in. 

That's the great thing about this hobby, no one really knows for sure, just have to wait and see.

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

That's the great thing about this hobby, no one really knows for sure, just have to wait and see.

Keep in mind that the wind shear is unfavorable, but its favorable directionally for Ian. 

[MaineJay]

7 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Keep in mind that the wind shear is unfavorable, but its favorable directionally for Ian. 

Yeah, we will see. I actually noted that shear can actually intensify hurricanes in some situations.

[Iceresistance]

Just now, MaineJay said:

Yeah, we will see. I actually noted that shear can actually intensify hurricanes in some situations.

Yes, because it can erode the outer eyewall that tries to start an EWRC and have no effect on the inner eyewall. 

[MaineJay]

6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Yes, because it can erode the outer eyewall that tries to start an EWRC and have no effect on the inner eyewall. 

I think it has more to do with the venturi effect, but I don't want to obfuscate the discussion.

[StretchCT]

Cuba radar  - its currently between these two

And north of the Punta del Este

[StretchCT]

Just now, MaineJay said:

I think it has more to do with the venturi effect, but I don't want to obfuscate the discussion.

You're going make me google that now 😡

[MaineJay]

2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

You're going make me google that now 😡

Think of blowing over the top of a straw to lift the fluid up.

[FortySixAnd32]

3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

You're going make me google that now 😡

Venturi or obfuscate? Lol...

[1816]

This narrow part of Cuba looking like a minor speedbump to me honestly. 1000 ft hill or not. Like one of those speedbumps that's not even a bump, just some yellow paint. 

[TLChip]

37 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

That's the great thing about this hobby, no one really knows for sure, just have to wait and see.

That’s why I love Mother Nature, she does what she wants on her terms! 👍

Thanks for making me google some stuff this morning guys. 

[StretchCT]

Last vort from 20 had 947mb with 120mph flight winds. Closed circular eye 20nm wide

Spoiler

roduct: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previously corrected observation.
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 10:59Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 20
Observation Number: 03

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 10:24:14Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.40N 83.67W
B. Center Fix Location: 1 statute miles (2 km) to the SE (129°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,695m (8,842ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 49kts (56.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the W (274°) of center fix at 10:13:08Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 14° at 79kts (From the NNE at 90.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix at 10:20:24Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 81kts (93.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the N (2°) of center fix at 10:30:38Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 97° at 105kts (From the E at 120.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the N (4°) of center fix at 10:27:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,066m (10,059ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the N (4°) from the flight level center at 10:27:30Z

 

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Last vort from 20 had 947mb with 120mph flight winds. Closed circular eye 20nm wide

  Reveal hidden contents

roduct: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previously corrected observation.
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 10:59Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 20
Observation Number: 03

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 10:24:14Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.40N 83.67W
B. Center Fix Location: 1 statute miles (2 km) to the SE (129°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,695m (8,842ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 49kts (56.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the W (274°) of center fix at 10:13:08Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 14° at 79kts (From the NNE at 90.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix at 10:20:24Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 81kts (93.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the N (2°) of center fix at 10:30:38Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 97° at 105kts (From the E at 120.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the N (4°) of center fix at 10:27:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,066m (10,059ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the N (4°) from the flight level center at 10:27:30Z

 

That is the pass that had 953 mb Extrapolated.

[Mainiac]

26 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

You're going make me google that now 😡

I already did, lol.

 

 

[StretchCT]

Playing around with the 0z model runs.  GFS stalls it the worst, then the Euro.  The Icon slows/stalls it, but after it's inland. CMC slows it for 6-12 hrs and keeps off west coast. NAVGEM, NAM and Ukie have no stall and really don't slow it down. Without the stall, the NAM, UKIE and Icon want to send it back out over the water and into SC.

0z GFS has over 40" falling right about at Clearwater, with a lot of that area in the 30"+.  That's gonna leave a mark.

Winds would be Tampa on south.

[StretchCT]

5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

That is the pass that had 953 mb Extrapolated.

Says it corrected a previously corrected observation. 

[Tater]

7 hours ago, Uscg Ast said:

1) The numbers are 7 or 10% and this is an old figure, so it is likely cheaper than that now. The hardening of homes are relatively inexpensive. 

2) The long run is much cheaper. Of course, you aren't going to retrofit Buffalo, NY for a Cat 5 Hurricane or an EF5 Tornado; Joplin, MO however - Different story. Yet here is where the cheaper really comes into effect. When Joplin, MO was hit, the entire town was essentially taken with it. As such, FEMA needed to come in and FEMA is really terribly administrated - it is simply to large a Bureaucratic organization. Plus, local persons have a much better understanding of the area than those from the Central Government. That aside, let us say that the vast majority of that town was reinforced. 7,500 residential buildings were damaged, 3,000 destroyed. Let us then take an average (2011) home of approximately 200k per home (National was about $225K, however, the center of the country tends to be lower than average more times than not - plus this makes numbers easier to calculate in my head 🤣). Add 20k (10%). The total is $60 million (For all 7,500 Residential Structures - $150M). Granted, $60/150M is a significant bill, however, the total damage from Joplin, MO alone was over $3 Billion (With a B). Now, this is specifically a number figure. This does not take into account the loss of revenue for businesses, lost tax revenue, lost time to rebuild, etc; all of which further inhibit the economy and all of which are incalculable. 

Missouri has been ground zero for quite a number of destructive tornadoes; however, I'd be interested to know what percentage of stuctures are hit by tornadoes. Even in Joplin, 2/3rds were unharmed. It wouldn't surprise me if statewide is a low single digit number. I don't think it's practical to do EF4-5 hardening at those numbers (though obviously that would depend on current costs to do so). Furthermore, even if your structure survives the wind, a storm that throws SUVs and pickups around like toys and even wraps semi-trucks around trees is going to cause impact damage to your structure.

However, I read that 70% of the damage in Joplin came from EF0-EF2 winds. It's likely much cheaper to build structures to withstand that. And insurance companies could lower prices depending on what type of storm your structure is rated to withstand, which could ease the cost burden further.

The only structures that really need to withstand EF5 winds are critical infrastructure like hospitals (which were a major issue in Joplin).

Planning for low-probability but high-severity events is extremely difficult (as you well know). Actuaries are paid huge bucks to figure this stuff out, and yet we see them getting it wrong regularly as insurance companies go bust when major events happen.

[Burr]

Coming off shore.  Not bothered by the terrain… the dry air from yesterday became the eye over night, as several of us noted in real-time … ready to go ballistic in the bathtub of the gulf.

 

[LUCC]

6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

0z GFS is slightly problematic. I'm seeing values of 43" north of Tampa. 

 

Heard on weather channel yesterday for a 24 hour period to divide 100 by the speed of tropical storm in mph to arrive at a estimated qpf in inches. So if this is moving 5mph for 48hrs some places in FLA can be looking at 40" easily.

[Burr]

The eye is not ‘fully’ cleared out on visible image, but is still very well defined as sunrise brushes the cloud tops.

[Ingyball]

8 hours ago, Uscg Ast said:

 

From an Emergency Management POV - 

1) The numbers are 7 or 10% and this is an old figure, so it is likely cheaper than that now. The hardening of homes are relatively inexpensive. 

2) The long run is much cheaper. Of course, you aren't going to retrofit Buffalo, NY for a Cat 5 Hurricane or an EF5 Tornado; Joplin, MO however - Different story. Yet here is where the cheaper really comes into effect. When Joplin, MO was hit, the entire town was essentially taken with it. As such, FEMA needed to come in and FEMA is really terribly administrated - it is simply to large a Bureaucratic organization. Plus, local persons have a much better understanding of the area than those from the Central Government. That aside, let us say that the vast majority of that town was reinforced. 7,500 residential buildings were damaged, 3,000 destroyed. Let us then take an average (2011) home of approximately 200k per home (National was about $225K, however, the center of the country tends to be lower than average more times than not - plus this makes numbers easier to calculate in my head 🤣). Add 20k (10%). The total is $60 million (For all 7,500 Residential Structures - $150M). Granted, $60/150M is a significant bill, however, the total damage from Joplin, MO alone was over $3 Billion (With a B). Now, this is specifically a number figure. This does not take into account the loss of revenue for businesses, lost tax revenue, lost time to rebuild, etc; all of which further inhibit the economy and all of which are incalculable. 

3) You are not stupid. Cheap? I have no comment *Runs and hides*

I 100% agree with you. Unfortunately the engineering side of construction is only just now realizing that tornadoes are a completely different risk vs straight line winds due to vertical motion (oops) so it's going to be a long process before we see new building codes for all buildings to resist tornadoes.