Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[ClicheVortex2014]

6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I'm not surprised by the evolution so far. I wasn't expecting an eye until it was past Cuba. I think we'll start to get an eye by Midnight. That's my hot take for today.

I didn't specify which time zone for 'midnight' since I'm now central time, but either way, I'd call this an eye. Obviously not that organized or clear, but it's definitely the start.

Northern side of the hurricane is relatively anemic for whatever reason.

[1816]

I've seen this movie too many times to believe that this thing isn't going to blast off when it gets over those gulf waters. Whatever problems it deals with going over Cuba get shrugged off between there and Tampa. I'm not buying as far as it not being able to reach cat 4.  

But I also think cliche was right and if it sits in one spot for 2 days it won't need to be cat 4 to be unbelievably destructive. Not looking good right now Tampa, get your stuff in order. Hopefully Ian can keep it moving faster than it looks right now. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

9 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I've seen this movie too many times to believe that this thing isn't going to blast off when it gets over those gulf waters. Whatever problems it deals with going over Cuba get shrugged off between there and Tampa. I'm not buying as far as it not being able to reach cat 4.  

But I also think cliche was right and if it sits in one spot for 2 days it won't need to be cat 4 to be unbelievably destructive. Not looking good right now Tampa, get your stuff in order. Hopefully Ian can keep it moving faster than it looks right now. 

It almost seems like the hurricane is following the warm pool depth. I see no reason why there won't be RI over the next 24-36 hours... especially when it's just northwest of Cuba. Dry air is the only unknown but I don't think that's being thought of as a threat by the experts.

But that RI should slow down as it approaches Tampa Bay. But at that point it doesn't really matter because that's when the real damage begins.

Frankly, respectfully, I think it's more likely that the hurricane will exceed expectations rather than below. We'll see.

Edited September 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Sentinel]

29 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

This is why they are making changes to larger buildings that are more likely to get hit. ASCE finally adopted tornadoes into it's framework for the first time ever and it will hopefully trickle down into building codes. We're still far off from it being established for smaller buildings like houses tho

 

38 minutes ago, Tater said:

Well, I won't argue against anyone who calls me cheap or stupid, but statistics aren't overly complicated for anyone with a basic understanding of math.

If 90% of buildings are never effected by tornadoes, adding 17% to the price of every single one is a waste of resources. You come out further ahead replacing the few that get hit.

Of course, it's still a lottery you don't wanna win.

From an Emergency Management POV - 

1) The numbers are 7 or 10% and this is an old figure, so it is likely cheaper than that now. The hardening of homes are relatively inexpensive. 

2) The long run is much cheaper. Of course, you aren't going to retrofit Buffalo, NY for a Cat 5 Hurricane or an EF5 Tornado; Joplin, MO however - Different story. Yet here is where the cheaper really comes into effect. When Joplin, MO was hit, the entire town was essentially taken with it. As such, FEMA needed to come in and FEMA is really terribly administrated - it is simply to large a Bureaucratic organization. Plus, local persons have a much better understanding of the area than those from the Central Government. That aside, let us say that the vast majority of that town was reinforced. 7,500 residential buildings were damaged, 3,000 destroyed. Let us then take an average (2011) home of approximately 200k per home (National was about $225K, however, the center of the country tends to be lower than average more times than not - plus this makes numbers easier to calculate in my head 🤣). Add 20k (10%). The total is $60 million (For all 7,500 Residential Structures - $150M). Granted, $60/150M is a significant bill, however, the total damage from Joplin, MO alone was over $3 Billion (With a B). Now, this is specifically a number figure. This does not take into account the loss of revenue for businesses, lost tax revenue, lost time to rebuild, etc; all of which further inhibit the economy and all of which are incalculable. 

3) You are not stupid. Cheap? I have no comment *Runs and hides*

[NWOhioChaser]

Have our very first tornado warning with Ian. Right along the keys.

 

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[Hassaywx1223]

Look how that tightened up one heck of a hook! From outer bands! Also new visible on the keys radar is the eye of Ian 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Hassaywx1223

[MidwestWX]

38 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I didn't specify which time zone for 'midnight' since I'm now central time, but either way, I'd call this an eye. Obviously not that organized or clear, but it's definitely the start.

Northern side of the hurricane is relatively anemic for whatever reason.

A delayed "welcome to CDT/CST time zone" from someone who works too much to follow along in the Summer months!

[NWOhioChaser]

23 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

It almost seems like the hurricane is following the warm pool depth. I see no reason why there won't be RI over the next 24-36 hours... especially when it's just northwest of Cuba. Dry air is the only unknown but I don't think that's being thought of as a threat by the experts.

But that RI should slow down as it approaches Tampa Bay. But at that point it doesn't really matter because that's when the real damage begins.

Frankly, respectfully, I think it's more likely that the hurricane will exceed expectations rather than below. We'll see.

Yeah, I agree. It's just ridinggg those warmest heat anomalies, if you catch my drift😉😂

[1816]

3 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Have our very first tornado warning with Ian. Right along the keys.

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

Look how that tightened up one heck of a hook! From outer bands! Also new visible on the keys radar is the eye of Ian 

 

IMG_7809.MOV 1.04 MB · 1 download IMG_7810.MOV

If you think nighttime tornados are bad in the south or the plains where twisters are common, let me tell you absolutely no one in the Florida keys is expecting a tornado in the middle of the night. Let's hope they stay over water. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

7 minutes ago, MidwestWX said:

A delayed "welcome to CDT/CST time zone" from someone who works too much to follow along in the Summer months!

Can't wait for the change to standard time. The change to EST was always great, but CST will be even better. Gone are the days of waiting for 2am to see Euro. (As if I'm not gonna be up til 2am anyway, as I always am)

Edited September 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

New storm surge warnings have been issued. No real changes. This is an example of the strongest wording.

This is valid for Tampa Bay.

Edit: I don't remember the one earlier exactly, but this one mentions Category 2 winds. I'm pretty sure it said Category 3 earlier.

Storm surge aspect hasn't changed.

STORM SURGE WARNING
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1115 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2022

FLZ151-271115-
/O.CON.KTBW.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1115 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2022
Coastal Hillsborough-

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Tampa
- Apollo Beach
- Westchase

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 2 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 90-110 mph with gusts to 140 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Wednesday
morning until Friday morning
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Wednesday afternoon until
Thursday evening

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind
greater than 110 mph
- The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane
force or higher.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be urgently completed. Prepare for catastrophic wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 7-10 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins early Wednesday morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 9 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for extreme life-threatening storm surge
flooding greater than 9 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts should soon be brought to
completion before driving conditions become unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- 3 FT surge above high tide floods Bayshore Blvd between
Howard Ave and the Hillsborough River.
- 3 FT surge above high tide floods near shore service roads
on MacDill AFB.
- 4 FT surge above high tide floods Old Port Tampa and
surrounding neighborhoods.
- 4 FT surge above high tide begins to flood homes along the
Alafia river west of Interstate 75.
- 5 FT surge above high tide begins to flood the Port of
Tampa, greatly impacts Davis Island, and impacts homes near
West Shore Blvd and south of Kennedy.
- 5 FT surge above high tide begins to flood Apollo Beach.
- 5 FT surge above high tide floods many homes west of
Highway 41 in Ruskin.
- 6 FT surge above high tide begins to impact Harbour Island.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally
higher amounts

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and boats pulled from moorings.

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

First of many MDs from Ian. Pretty crazy considering Ian's only only Cuba right now. Gonna be a slight risk for tornadoes through at least Wednesday. Might sneak one out on Thursday.

Mesoscale Discussion 1831
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of the FL Keys

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 270618Z - 270845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for waterspouts and perhaps a brief tornado or
   two should gradually increase through the early morning. Watch
   issuance is possible, with observational trends being closely
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Outer rain bands associated with Hurricane Ian are
   ongoing over the FL Straits early this morning. The low-level flow
   estimated by recent KBYX/KAMX VWPs is not overly strong at the
   moment. But, further strengthening of the east-southeasterly
   low-level winds will occur over the next couple of hours as the
   hurricane moves slowly northward over western Cuba. As this occurs,
   hodographs should gradually increase, especially in the 0-3 km
   layer. Any low-topped showers/thunderstorms that can maintain a more
   northerly motion compared to northwesterly should have access to
   marginally favorable effective SRH around 100 m2/s2.

   One such low-topped supercell that occurred earlier between Key West
   and Marathon FL briefly had an enhanced rotational velocity
   signature from KBYX before quickly weakening. Other cells occurring
   offshore and to the southeast of Key Largo FL have also shown
   occasional low-level rotation. An isolated threat for waterspouts
   and perhaps a brief tornado or two should persist this morning given
   the presence of rich low-level moisture/sufficient instability, and
   a gradually improving kinematic environment. Watch issuance appears
   possible, especially if observational trends show multiple low-level
   supercells developing offshore.

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

0z GFS is slightly problematic. I'm seeing values of 43" north of Tampa. 

 

This run keeps northeasterly flow for Tampa so it's not like storm surge is going to be funneled into the bay area, but obviously this is at the cost of Harvey-like extreme rainfall. It's still an extremely close call because it doesn't require that much of a northward shift for that to happen. 

This specific scenario would create a worst case scenario for Cape Coral given persistent southerly winds into the channel/bay. 

 

Last screenshot of Ian before bed. Getting a well-defined eye but Cuba's gonna wreck that for a while. I'm sure it'll more than recover by the time I wake up.

Edited September 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[MidwestWX]

Ian is now a Major Hurricane (Cat 3) with 115 mph winds and a central pressure of 956mb.

Edited September 27, 2022 by MidwestWX

[Sentinel]

4 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

Great..........

Speaking of

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/2022/09/26/6th-property-insurer-in-florida-declared-insolvent/?outputType=amp

[MidwestWX]

It appears that Ian's Eyewall is now on land. Ian also appears to have a few mesovortices circling in his eye. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by MidwestWX

[FortySixAnd32]

46 minutes ago, MidwestWX said:

It appears that Ian's Eyewall is now on land. Ian also appears to have a few mesovortices circling in his eye. 

Looks like it might thread the needle between those 2 higher mountain ranges.

[Poco]

Large diurnal burst even as it goes over cuba has it near cat4 strength 

 

 

eye completely wrapped in convention and could cloud tops as it runs aground into cuba 

 

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Poco

[MidwestWX]

Latest update from the NHC bump the winds up to 125 mph and lowers the central pressure to 952 mb.

Ian popped off to prove the doubters wrong 😅

Edited September 27, 2022 by MidwestWX
Word Choice

[TLChip]

Eye is well defined this morning, got a few hours overland and than back to hurricane soup.

[1816]

30 minutes ago, MidwestWX said:

Latest update from the NHC bump the winds up to 125 mph and lowers the central pressure to 952 mb.

It popped off to prove the doubters wrong 😅

Ian: 🖕🖕

 

I used to know a guy named Ian. He was a dick. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by 1816

[FortySixAnd32]

Is it still considered an ERC once it goes over land?

[MaineJay]

33 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

Is it still considered an ERC once it goes over land?

We probably won't get microwave data over land, but radar imagery might give a sense of what's going on.

Looks beastly this morning.

[MaineJay]

AMSR2 barely caught it 4 hours ago. A basically perfect eye with some concentric rings spiraling.

[FortySixAnd32]

4 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

We probably won't get microwave data over land, but radar imagery might give a sense of what's going on.

Looks beastly this morning.

Cayos De San Felipe had to have gotten wrecked!!!!