Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[Sentinel]

Just now, Tater said:

Going back and looking at projected tracks, I suspect Ian will struggle to get past a Cat 3 hurricane. As it moves away from Cuba, it'll already be interfered with by Florida. Doesn't mean it can't be dangerous, but I think those forces of assymmetry will help to shelter Florida somewhat. The storm doesn't get that chance at wide open water like some that have gone further west.

Yeah, I agree. That is what I was getting at when I was saying that Cuba is going to likely somewhat spare Florida. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Hope I'm not jumping the gun but it looks like an eye is clearing out

[StretchCT]

6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Hope I'm not jumping the gun but it looks like an eye is clearing out

That last bit of convection firing around it makes me want to agree.  Or, its just some dry air.

[Tater]

12 minutes ago, btbucks said:

Hurricane Charley blew up after crossing Cuba.

Charley is an interesting analog.

Spoiler

"Charley then came under the influence of an unseasonably strong mid-tropospheric trough that had dropped from the east-central United States into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane turned north-northeastward and accelerated toward the southwest coast of Florida as it began to intensify rapidly; dropsonde measurements indicate that Charley's central pressure fell from 964 mb to 941 mb in 4.5 hours."

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/#charley

I'm not going to pretend that I know what a "strong mid-tropospheric trough" is, but I do know that there is a difference between mid-August and late September SSTs. Something tells me Ian won't intensify quite so rapidly. Camille strengthened over land to dump feet of rain in Virginia, so anything's possible. It could be a physically larger storm that pushes more storm surge into a worse area.

Despite mentioning Camille, I think my chances in VA are better (safer) than those in FL. I'll continue to watch from a distance.

[NWOhioChaser]

13 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Hope I'm not jumping the gun but it looks like an eye is clearing out

Fool me twice...😅

[StretchCT]

Charley before hitting Cuba.  Charley just made it to Cat 3 right before making landfall in Cuba.

 

[Sentinel]

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

Charley before hitting Cuba.  Charley just made it to Cat 3 right before making landfall in Cuba.

 

Makes me want to delete my original comment - Tampa was literally scrambling in the last hours due to Charley. Bad Juju. Bad Juju. 

[StretchCT]

A look without all those pretty colors.

[Ingyball]

Pressure stopped dropping between passes so winds are starting to come up. May not get a major before Cuba since the AF will have to leave before the storm gets close to landfall. Don't think Ian will weaken too much over this area of Cuba, the mountains there aren't that tall. Still think Cat-4 is absolutely in play here. The only thing restricting the storm will be it's size. 

[StretchCT]

11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 26
Location: 21.3°N 83.4°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Last night it was 989 65mph, so 40mph in 24 hrs. 

And we're disappointed. 

Eye wall seems pretty closed to me.  

Edited September 27, 2022 by StretchCT

[ClicheVortex2014]

I'm not really that focused on peak intensity with this one. All signs point to borderline rapid weakening prior to landfall. The most dangerous factor here will be storm surge which comes down to the ability for the high pressure to stall the hurricane. Yeah, a stronger hurricane would produce higher surge, but this is a special case where persistent flow makes that a little less important.

[Ingyball]

Here's the topography of Cuba, the area the storm will be moving over is about 250 to 600 meters high so about 2000 feet tall at their highest. Mountains on the east side of the island are about 10k+ feet all.

[Ingyball]

2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I'm not really that focused on peak intensity with this one. All signs point to borderline rapid weakening prior to landfall. The most dangerous factor here will be storm surge which comes down to the ability for the high pressure to stall the hurricane. Yeah, a stronger hurricane would produce higher surge, but this is a special case where persistent flow makes that a little less important.

Not anymore, NHC has a major at landfall now. 

[Cincysnow]

14 hours ago, Cincysnow said:

I’ll match it. 

Close enough. I’ll be making a donation tmr. Thanks to everyone contributing, I enjoy learning. 

[Ingyball]

This track is the worst case scenario for Tampa, if it happens the city will never be the same again. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just now, Ingyball said:

Not anymore, NHC has a major at landfall now. 

That's true, that 'rapid' part was the case some number of days ago. Should've just said weakening.

The fact we're now expecting major hurricane landfall on top of the stalled hurricane is a terrible development

[ClicheVortex2014]

New cone map. They have Ian barely making movement for 24 hours (0z Wednesday-0z Thursday)

[Columbusbuckeye]

2 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

This track is the worst case scenario for Tampa, if it happens the city will never be the same again. 

Yikes.  Especially if it stalls out and the surge just collects in the Bay.  

[1816]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

What's the tornado risk with these bands already impacting Florida? If any.

I know if it takes that right turn at Tampa Bay and moves inland from west to east there would probably be tons of them. I think central FL got hit with some that year they got three in a row. 2004 maybe?

[Burr]

Looking … better organized.  Rather than expelling the dry air, it’s internalized it.  At least for now.  Symmetry of the convection is more evident.

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Burr

[1816]

1 hour ago, Uscg Ast said:

Actually you would be surprised. 

For example: to build a house which would be able to survive an EF4 would cost approximately 7% of the total cost. To further reinforce - 10%, which would likely protect against an EF5 as well. The thing about EF5's is the fact that the strongest winds are really quite small compared to overall width of the tornado. The Joplin, MO Tornado (2011) was recorded to be 1 mile wide, however, the EF5 winds were confined to 'only' 200 yards. This means that even in an EF5 tornado, the distribution of these winds are relatively small compared to the entirety of the tornado. 

 

In other words, if building codes had been put in place to withstand EF4 tornados, then the vast majority of the structures in Joplin, MO would have been spared from the catastrophic damage of the tornado. If that had been the case, then the town would have been able to rebuild in a much quicker fashion Furthermore, to offset the cost, grants could easily be instituted. The reasoning for the grants would be that a local municipality would be able to operate following a very strong tornado as the fact that the town would be mostly left standing would mean that you would still have a working and viable tax base as well as able bodied persons to help rebuild. Otherwise, you have a completely devastated town with no local municipality assistance available and a Federal Gov't incapable of handling the disaster on the ground. 

 

That is just one example of many, however. 

Well if those are the numbers we are either very very cheap or very very stupid. Probably both. 

[1816]

1 hour ago, Tater said:

Going back and looking at projected tracks, I suspect Ian will struggle to get past a Cat 3 hurricane. As it moves away from Cuba, it'll already be interfered with by Florida. Doesn't mean it can't be dangerous, but I think those forces of assymmetry will help to shelter Florida somewhat. The storm doesn't get that chance at wide open water like some that have gone further west.

Well its hard to stay away from land altogether when you're 9000 miles wide. Ian working against himself. 

[junior]

I very vaguely remember reading or watching a documentary on worse case scenarios for hurricanes in the south and one scenario was a stalled hurricane next to Tampa, and here we are. 

[Tater]

4 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Well if those are the numbers we are either very very cheap or very very stupid. Probably both. 

Well, I won't argue against anyone who calls me cheap or stupid, but statistics aren't overly complicated for anyone with a basic understanding of math.

If 90% of buildings are never effected by tornadoes, adding 17% to the price of every single one is a waste of resources. You come out further ahead replacing the few that get hit.

Of course, it's still a lottery you don't wanna win.

[Ingyball]

7 minutes ago, Tater said:

Well, I won't argue against anyone who calls me cheap or stupid, but statistics aren't overly complicated for anyone with a basic understanding of math.

If 90% of buildings are never effected by tornadoes, adding 17% to the price of every single one is a waste of resources. You come out further ahead replacing the few that get hit.

Of course, it's still a lottery you don't wanna win.

This is why they are making changes to larger buildings that are more likely to get hit. ASCE finally adopted tornadoes into it's framework for the first time ever and it will hopefully trickle down into building codes. We're still far off from it being established for smaller buildings like houses tho