Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[MaineJay]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

As of 2 hours ago, microwave imagery shows a bit of discontinuity if the eye wall, there's some spiraling inward, it's close though. I think it's still trying to organize a coherent, continuous eyewall. I feel like the bands just out from the smallest diameter "ring" keep overpowering the inner eye wall (as it's not mature).  This is based on watching the convection pulse, then the clouds tops cool.  Then another inner band fires up, tries to pull towards the center and establish itself as the new eyewall. Lather, rinse, repeat.

This may also cause it's wobbling? As it appears to be doing.

 Just explaining my observations.

 

16 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Vort message 967mb, max sfmr 93mph flight level 100mph eye is spiral. 

  Reveal hidden contents

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 22:42Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 09

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 22:03:32Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.35N 83.28W
B. Center Fix Location: 145 statute miles (234 km) to the S (170°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,824m (9,265ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 14kts (From the W at 16mph)
F. Eye Character: Spiral Band
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 61kts (70.2mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix at 21:57:32Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 61kts (From the NE at 70.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NW (324°) of center fix at 21:56:28Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 80kts (92.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix at 22:08:40Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 221° at 87kts (From the SW at 100.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix at 22:09:41Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,081m (10,108ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,085m (10,121ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 22:09:41Z

 

I thought the microwave shots indicated some spiraling. 

 It's gonna be a sad day for TC enthusiasts when we lose these last 3 satellites.

[MaineJay]

What's the tornado risk with these bands already impacting Florida? If any.

[StretchCT]

[StretchCT]

26 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

It's gonna be a sad day for TC enthusiasts when we lose these last 3 satellites.

Don't get me started

[StretchCT]

966 now

Noticing the lack of winds on the west side. Weird. I'd expect that when there is shear.

[StretchCT]

965 now. It was 981 12 hrs ago. 991 24 hrs ago.

8:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 26
Location: 20.8°N 83.3°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

Edited September 27, 2022 by StretchCT

[Hassaywx1223]

2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

There are very few states that are nearly prone to destructive events. West coast has the ever-present threat of extreme earthquakes/tsunamis and fires. Central US deals with tornadoes, some fires, flooding, and derechos. South has hurricanes, tornadoes, and flooding. East coast has hurricanes and tornadoes every once in a while. That really doesn't leave much real estate in the US. The only states left are the ones with brutally extreme heat and/or extreme cold.

I agree with you 100% I’ve said This since I’ve gotten into weather. Is global warming enhancing throwing darts and hitting a bull eyes for bigger storms and extremes? Yes yes it is. But! Part of it is human nature. Many people have decided to build millions and millions of dollars homes businesses on and on. on fire prone flood prone or on hurricane prone areas regardless of what it is with no regrets or regards to the fact that these things have been happening before human civilization and will after. You can’t expect to live right in/on the coast or in a forest not have the insurance or the thought of natural weather which do potentially become disasters happening. nature is before humans period nature is the harmony or this planet. Earthquakes fires hurricanes tornadoes everything has happened before humans and knowledge of science and will after. But people are naive. That’s just my opinion is expect where you live what could happen NATURALLY! like I know I can get a tornado or a 24 inch snow storm or a crippling ice storm in Ohio as much as these people have known the risks of hurricanes! Sorry just my red talk back to the seriousness of the situation 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Hassaywx1223

[Burr]

It’s like the dry slot and the convection are the last two contestants of musical chairs…

 

[StretchCT]

Yeah it's getting there

 

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by StretchCT

[Burr]

Are we allowed to fly over Cuba now?  If so, when did that happen?  Or, alternatively, have I just been mistaken about that?

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Strongest wording of all the storm surge warnings. This one is valid for the Tampa Bay area.

They note that the previous wind threat has increased from Category 1 or Category 3. 

7-10 foot storm surge

STORM SURGE WARNING
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
510 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2022

FLZ050-270515-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SS.W.1009.220926T2110Z-000000T0000Z/
510 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2022
Pinellas-

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning means hurricane-force winds are expected
somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- St. Petersburg
- Clearwater
- Largo

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 75-95 mph with gusts to 115 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Wednesday morning
until Friday afternoon
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Wednesday morning until
Thursday afternoon

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind
greater than 110 mph
- The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane
force or higher.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
underway. Prepare for catastrophic wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 7-10 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins early Wednesday morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 9 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for extreme life-threatening storm surge
flooding greater than 9 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts should soon be brought to
completion before driving conditions become unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- 3 FT surge above high tide floods Venetian isles
neighborhood in Saint Petersburg.
- 4 FT surge floods runways at Albert Whitted Airport.
- 3.5 FT surge above high tide can shutdown the Causeway.
- 5 FT surge floods runways at Saint Pete-Clearwater
International Airport.
- 3 FT surge floods beaches in barrier islands in Clearwater
- 5 FT surge floods roads and limits evacuations in Clearwater

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 6-10 inches, with locally
higher amounts

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- https://www.weather.gov/tbw

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[TheRex]

3 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Inundation map

Map without water - that's a lot of homes under water. 

All of these fancy ones.

 

I see all those houses and I suspect there may be some insurance companies that take a big hit because they thought this part of Florida faced less hurricane danger.  A good friend of mine recently built an expensive house in St. Pete Beach and told me that area doesn't get hurricanes often.

It only takes one though. 

[TLChip]

Edited September 27, 2022 by TLChip

[StretchCT]

Vortex message - only one from mission 18 has concentric eye 25 and 14 nm wide open in the west. 966 pressure.

Spoiler

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 0:16Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 06

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 23:21:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.71N 83.32W
B. Center Fix Location: 120 statute miles (193 km) to the S (169°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,811m (9,222ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 185° at 8kts (From the S at 9mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the west
G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
G. Inner Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 64kts (73.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the E (83°) of center fix at 23:19:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 310° at 59kts (From the NW at 67.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SSW (213°) of center fix at 23:11:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 76kts (87.5mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix at 23:30:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 148° at 91kts (From the SSE at 104.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix at 23:31:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 1°C (34°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NE (50°) from the flight level center at 23:31:30Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

Radar shows the concentric eyewalls at least on the west side

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by StretchCT

[TLChip]

GFS says Ian doesn't care about the land...

ICON

Euro

Edited September 27, 2022 by TLChip

[NWOhioChaser]

Can start to see the 'eye' on Key West's Radarscope. Roughly 19 miles. Doubt the validity of such the measurement, but the point is you can see it and there's a big slug of moisture hitting south Florida at the moment. 

[StretchCT]

Latest vortex: 964mb, closed eye, circular, 18nm. 

Spoiler

roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 1:33Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 14

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 1:02:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.02N 83.39W
B. Center Fix Location: 98 statute miles (158 km) to the S (169°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,799m (9,183ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 964mb (28.47 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 145° at 21kts (From the SE at 24mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (298°) of center fix at 0:59:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 47° at 68kts (From the NE at 78.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) of center fix at 0:57:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 69kts (79.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix at 1:08:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 215° at 88kts (From the SW at 101.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix at 1:10:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 2°C (36°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NE (50°) from the flight level center at 23:31:30Z

 

[Cdfarabaugh]

4 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Inundation map

Map without water - that's a lot of homes under water. 

All of these fancy ones.

 

Call me an asshole but I have ZERO empathy for people who buy OR insure these abominations.  

Let's face it, if you're on the gulf coast it's not a matter of IF but WHEN you're gonna get the delete key hit on your property.  Climate change/no climate change hurricane have and always will hit there in a big way.  

[Sentinel]

3 hours ago, 1816 said:

Cost, dude. It's the cost.  Building to ef5 standard would have to be prohibitively expensive. Also why wouldn't you develop an area 1 foot above sea level for a 5 million dollar profit. Duh

Actually you would be surprised. 

For example: to build a house which would be able to survive an EF4 would cost approximately 7% of the total cost. To further reinforce - 10%, which would likely protect against an EF5 as well. The thing about EF5's is the fact that the strongest winds are really quite small compared to overall width of the tornado. The Joplin, MO Tornado (2011) was recorded to be 1 mile wide, however, the EF5 winds were confined to 'only' 200 yards. This means that even in an EF5 tornado, the distribution of these winds are relatively small compared to the entirety of the tornado. 

 

In other words, if building codes had been put in place to withstand EF4 tornados, then the vast majority of the structures in Joplin, MO would have been spared from the catastrophic damage of the tornado. If that had been the case, then the town would have been able to rebuild in a much quicker fashion Furthermore, to offset the cost, grants could easily be instituted. The reasoning for the grants would be that a local municipality would be able to operate following a very strong tornado as the fact that the town would be mostly left standing would mean that you would still have a working and viable tax base as well as able bodied persons to help rebuild. Otherwise, you have a completely devastated town with no local municipality assistance available and a Federal Gov't incapable of handling the disaster on the ground. 

 

That is just one example of many, however. 

[Sentinel]

40 minutes ago, TLChip said:

This interaction with Cuba is likely going to somewhat spare Florida -and I do stress LIKELY, NOT definitely- as the terrain is rather mountainous. While I would not expect the storm to be significantly injured, I would also expect enough of a disruption to the LLC -and perhaps even MLC- to prevent if from getting its act fully together before impacting Florida. 

That withstanding, Charlie comes to mind from (2004?).

[Sentinel]

9 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

Call me an asshole but I have ZERO empathy for people who buy OR insure these abominations.  

Let's face it, if you're on the gulf coast it's not a matter of IF but WHEN you're gonna get the delete key hit on your property.  Climate change/no climate change hurricane have and always will hit there in a big way.  

These are likely in the Assigned Risk Category which means that Tax paying dollars Insure these homes as much -if not more- than Insurance companies do. 

[Cdfarabaugh]

Just now, Uscg Ast said:

These are likely in the Assigned Risk Category which means that Tax paying dollars Insure these homes as much -if not more- than Insurance companies do. 

Great..........

[Tater]

Regarding Ian's "underperformance" over the past day or so...

Are there analogs of other major hurricanes in this area? I haven't been watching hurricanes very long so don't remember many, but the few major gulf hurricanes that I remember were Cat 1 or 2 up til about a day or so before US landfall. I don't recall them getting their act together until they hit wide open water in the GOM.

Remember that mighty hurricanes are simply moving masses of air. Warm air rises and more air moves in behind it. As the air moves faster, it lowers the pressure and sucks in more air, creating a feedback loop that builds itself bigger and bigger as long as it has warmth to work with. In the wide open ocean, air rushes in from all sides to replace the air rising away. The Coriolis effect starts things rotating, and it builds itself into a symmetrical wheel of beauty and destruction. 

But suppose we have a bit of land on one side. Now the air moving in from that side is restricted. It also is moving over cooler, drier land versus the open water on the other side. Topography changes the direction of motion, injects turbulence, and lengthens the distance the air must travel. This ruins the symmetry and destabilizes things. And the land doesn't have to be close. Numerous posts here have commented about the water vapor streams extending from the Pacific up to the Atlantic east of Florida. Throw in the big island of Cuba in one quadrant, Central and South America in two others, and the wide open Carribean in the fourth, and you can see asymmetry everywhere. Suddenly it's obvious that the structure will struggle as the differing air masses (varying water contents, temperatures, and vectors of motion both horizontally and vertically) moving at different speeds jostle each other around. 

Despite this, Ian's structure is much improved from yesterday. It's already up to a Cat 2 and getting much larger. As it moves past Cuba, these assymetrical forces will quickly subside and I think you will see this storm go through impressive RI as other hurricanes have done in this area.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Tater
Typing a book on a phone

[btbucks]

Hurricane Charley blew up after crossing Cuba.

[Tater]

5 minutes ago, Tater said:

As it moves past Cuba, these assymetrical forces will quickly subside and I think you will see this storm go through impressive RI as other hurricanes have done in this area.

Going back and looking at projected tracks, I suspect Ian will struggle to get past a Cat 3 hurricane. As it moves away from Cuba, it'll already be interfered with by Florida. Doesn't mean it can't be dangerous, but I think those forces of assymmetry will help to shelter Florida somewhat. The storm doesn't get that chance at wide open water like some that have gone further west.