Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[TLChip]

10 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

The lack of EF5s since the integration of the EF system is being blamed on housing that isn't built to sustain an EF5. Most recent example was the Mayfield tornado. It's crazy that houses in tornado prone areas aren't built that way. I'd imagine newer houses that are being built are built to sustain that, but it's gonna take a while for it be a more common thing.

Off-T: I'm in commercial structural cold formed framing and there is a huge talent shortage in my area. I know many workers left residential for commercial because of the pay difference. Custom homes I would bet are up to par but cookie cutter builders are not interest in quality, they're throwing up houses as fast as they can. Not every home builder is like this but I knew way more worried about $$ than the product they sell.🙄 Inspectors don't and wont catch everything on a home building.

 

On-T: Every time Ian looks like hes going to explode he calms back down some and resets. Slowly getting stronger but I thought he'd explode over the hot water with no shear.

Edited September 26, 2022 by TLChip

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 minutes ago, TLChip said:

I'm in commercial structural cold formed framing and there is a huge talent shortage in my area. I know many workers left residential for commercial because of the pay difference. Custom homes I would bet are up to par but cookie cutter builders are not interest in quality, they're throwing up houses as fast as they can. Not every home builder is like this but I knew way more worried about $$ than the product they sell.🙄 Inspectors don't and wont catch everything on a home building.

Good to have that perspective. I'm not a home owner so I don't know about the cost differences between customs and cookie cutters though I'm sure there's a significant price difference. That's a shame. 

That said, I'm sure there's plenty of people out there that don't consider the fate of their house if a natural disaster were to strike. Yeah, it's very unlikely you'll be directly impacted by any of the natural disasters I listed, but if you're living there for an extended period, like over a decade, it's more than a non-zero chance. 

[Burr]

Comparing the IR and the Vis satellite views as sun starts to set.  They should be synched.

Asymmetry.

 

[1816]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Good to have that perspective. I'm not a home owner so I don't know about the cost differences between customs and cookie cutters though I'm sure there's a significant price difference. That's a shame. 

That said, I'm sure there's plenty of people out there that don't consider the fate of their house if a natural disaster were to strike. Yeah, it's very unlikely you'll be directly impacted by any of the natural disasters I listed, but if you're living there for an extended period, like over a decade, it's more than a non-zero chance. 

I just wrote a while ago about how my area is immune to mother nature. In reality by far the biggest problem where I'm at is generally catastrophic flooding. I would say it's an every 20 year event.   My personal home is not in a place that can flood. But there are so many homes, many quite expensive, located in places where it's not if but when.  

[StretchCT]

Skipping data.

[Burr]

Looks like Ian took another breath of dry air… currently on north/western side of circulation… that could take a while to expel…

 

[LUCC]

1 minute ago, Burr said:

Looks like Ian took another breath of dry air… currently on north/western side of circulation… that could take a while to expel…

 

Yeah, blossoming from the S/SE though, will probably wrap around quickly.

[StretchCT]

967 on the dropsonde

[NWOhioChaser]

Not going to lie, seeing no eye at this point is suspect. Was hoping to see a symmetrical storm by now. Quite lopsided for a Cat. 2

[Poco]

IR 

Vis

love the low light angle shots, a big bursts can be seen in yellow on the diurnal trend chart 

 

could be an impressive surge coming, will have to see how interaction with cuba and a possible erc go overnight into tomorrow 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Poco

[ClicheVortex2014]

2 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Not going to lie, seeing no eye at this point is suspect. Was hoping to see a symmetrical storm by now. Quite lopsided for a Cat. 2

Convection will blow up after the sun sets and that'll help clear out the eye assuming dry air won't be an issue. I don't think it will

[MaineJay]

13 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Convection will blow up after the sun sets and that'll help clear out the eye assuming dry air won't be an issue. I don't think it will

It's got about 6-8 hours before it hits Cuba, so he's gonna have to pull it together to clear an eye before then. I know I'm one of the few that think it's struggling a bit, so I'm coming from that perspective. I actually think there's already some disruption from the modest mountains in eastern Cuba. 

[FortySixAnd32]

59 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Emergency managers are for complaints only sooo

Yes. My name is KAREN and I'd like to speak to the manager!!!!

[1816]

9 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

It's got about 6-8 hours before it hits Cuba, so he's gonna have to pull it together to clear an eye before then. I know I'm one of the few that think it's struggling a bit, so I'm coming from that perspective. I actually think there's already some disruption from the modest mountains in eastern Cuba. 

It's struggled way more than I ever thought it would. I'm guessing once it gets past Cuba it's gonna put the rapid into rapid intensification. 

[FortySixAnd32]

49 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

10 hour loop. Looks like he grew a mohawk over Florida.

Glenn Plake for those who know. 

[Burr]

29 minutes ago, LUCC said:

Yeah, blossoming from the S/SE though, will probably wrap around quickly.

Time will tell.  It’s clearly strengthening, but hasn’t gotten all its act together yet (thankfully for Cuba).  

[Psu1313]

8 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

It's got about 6-8 hours before it hits Cuba, so he's gonna have to pull it together to clear an eye before then. I know I'm one of the few that think it's struggling a bit, so I'm coming from that perspective. I actually think there's already some disruption from the modest mountains in eastern Cuba. 

I've been toying with the same assessment, because he is definitely struggling against expectations and continues to struggle with a succinct eye wall, but he's still a CAT 2 hurricane. It just goes to show how ripe the environment is that we can sit here and assess that our hurricane has not realized his potential.

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

It's got about 6-8 hours before it hits Cuba, so he's gonna have to pull it together to clear an eye before then. I know I'm one of the few that think it's struggling a bit, so I'm coming from that perspective. I actually think there's already some disruption from the modest mountains in eastern Cuba. 

Great point. I've said before I didn't expect an eye until it's past Cuba but with the way the convection is evolving right now, maybe it's possible it'll happen before then. I wouldn't say this if sunset is imminent. 

That said, I have a lot to learn about tropical storms. I'm fine to admit that because I likely won't ever have to worry about forecasting it. You have a more solid grip on this kind of thing.

[StretchCT]

Vort message 967mb, max sfmr 93mph flight level 100mph eye is spiral. 

Spoiler

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 22:42Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 09

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 22:03:32Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.35N 83.28W
B. Center Fix Location: 145 statute miles (234 km) to the S (170°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,824m (9,265ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 14kts (From the W at 16mph)
F. Eye Character: Spiral Band
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 61kts (70.2mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix at 21:57:32Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 61kts (From the NE at 70.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NW (324°) of center fix at 21:56:28Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 80kts (92.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix at 22:08:40Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 221° at 87kts (From the SW at 100.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix at 22:09:41Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,081m (10,108ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,085m (10,121ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 22:09:41Z

 

[1816]

Also that slowdown heading into that stall is gonna let the thing perfect its structure. We're not at that stage yet. But it's coming. That should really allow it to ramp up

[StretchCT]

Switched to Cesium as you can overlay clouds and multiple flights.

[MidwestWX]

Soap box - it doesn't need to look like super typhoon Noru to be a destructive storm. Not every storm goes through insane RI either. We've been spoiled lately.

On topic - Ian has struggled to complete it's eyewall/core the last two nights but I suspect it's only a matter of time before we see a pinhole eye emerge tomorrow morning. This storm has continued to strengthen despite it's asymmetrical build. 

[StretchCT]

Goodnight Ian - sends up a tower where you'd thing the eye should be.  That's what's been bugging me today.

 

[MaineJay]

5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Great point. I've said before I didn't expect an eye until it's past Cuba but with the way the convection is evolving right now, maybe it's possible it'll happen before then. I wouldn't say this if sunset is imminent. 

That said, I have a lot to learn about tropical storms. I'm fine to admit that because I likely won't ever have to worry about forecasting it. You have a more solid grip on this kind of thing.

I just base on observations from past storms, so much of what I say is speculative and to be taken with salt. To be honest, the convection this morning made me think we'd see an eye by now, but I refrained from saying so, as I didn't feel confident after other convective bursts failed at forming a discrete eye.

5 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

I've been toying with the same assessment, because he is definitely struggling against expectations and continues to struggle with a succinct eye wall, but he's still a CAT 2 hurricane. It just goes to show how ripe the environment is that we can sit here and assess that our hurricane has not realized his potential.

For me in some ways, the category is moot until it hits shore. I believe they upgraded to 2 upon satellite presentation. I will defer to those professionals.  Just hard to ignore that dry-ish air in the northern half of the storm.

[MaineJay]

15 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

Glenn Plake for those who know. 

You're showing your age.