Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5

[StretchCT]

1 minute ago, 1816 said:

I was wrong but I was sure the eye would clear out by now. Guess there's something going on to prevent it, could it be all the difficulties this one has had aligning itself and stacking?

I thought it'd be a cleared out eye already too.   think it's coming.  Seems like it collapses in on itself, so something may be disrupting the venting process. Watching the radar and sat with the convection moving to the center was weird.  Or maybe it's trying to decide do I want to have a 10nm wide eye or a 30?

[ClicheVortex2014]

Looks like NHC is really starting buy more into the near stall on the Florida coast. Ugly situation.

 

6 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I was wrong but I was sure the eye would clear out by now. Guess there's something going on to prevent it, could it be all the difficulties this one has had aligning itself and stacking?

 

2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I thought it'd be a cleared out eye already too.   think it's coming.  Seems like it collapses in on itself, so something may be disrupting the venting process. Watching the radar and sat with the convection moving to the center was weird.  Or maybe it's trying to decide do I want to have a 10nm wide eye or a 30?

I'm not surprised by the evolution so far. I wasn't expecting an eye until it was past Cuba. I think we'll start to get an eye by Midnight. That's my hot take for today.

[1816]

3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Looks like NHC is really starting buy more into the near stall on the Florida coast. Ugly situation.

 

 

I'm not surprised by the evolution so far. I wasn't expecting an eye until it was past Cuba. I think we'll start to get an eye by Midnight. That's my hot take for today.

That HP pressing down from Canada wants to put a lid on this thing and keep it like a balloon bouncing against a ceiling. Let's hope models are overdoing it. 

[StretchCT]

19 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Might check this out.

 

It was a brief briefing.  Don't bother.

 

[Sentinel]

27 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Still no eye, but is fairly pretty (or handsome).  More recon heading in.  Seems NHC went and upped the winds based on sat presentation.  We'll find out soon for sure. 

Beautiful... But not much lightning. 

[Psu1313]

8 minutes ago, 1816 said:

That HP pressing down from Canada wants to put a lid on this thing and keep it like a balloon bouncing against a ceiling. Let's hope models are overdoing it. 

Exactly. Sadly, I think the only question is with the High sets up and where the front gets to before our hurricanes slows to a crawl. I wouldn't want to be in Florida along that boundary. There will be copious amounts of moisture being wrung out. 

Edited to be more representative of the point about the High. There are lots of questions, but I believe the cold air push is real and the High will set up in a spot that limits the forward movement of our hurricane for a time. 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Psu1313

[StretchCT]

Inundation map

Map without water - that's a lot of homes under water. 

All of these fancy ones.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

Exactly. Sadly, I think the only question is where the High sets up and where the front gets to before it stalls. I wouldn't want to be in Florida along that boundary. There will be copious amounts of moisture being wrung out. 

It is similar in some ways to Harvey. I'm not expecting this to be nearly as devastating as Harvey, but storm surge could make this historic. Especially if the hurricane near-stalls in a way such that westerly/southwesterly flow is being pushed into the bay area of Tampa Bay for a long period. That's the worst case scenario.

[1816]

Let's build all these nice houses in a place that is going to inevitably eventually be destroyed by a huge storm. By the way, outer banks are on line 2 for you....

[Burr]

BULLETIN

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 15...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022

500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Corrected header and next advisory time

...IAN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY...

...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...

INFORMATION

----------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.3N 83.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH ...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB... 28.71 INCHES

[StretchCT]

This whole strip - under water.  Yeah, maybe it's only 3-6 feet.... but I don't think Sandy was over 4 on LBI. 

Edited September 26, 2022 by StretchCT

[ClicheVortex2014]

6 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Let's build all these nice houses in a place that is going to inevitably eventually be destroyed by a huge storm. By the way, outer banks are on line 2 for you....

There are very few states that are nearly prone to destructive events. West coast has the ever-present threat of extreme earthquakes/tsunamis and fires. Central US deals with tornadoes, some fires, flooding, and derechos. South has hurricanes, tornadoes, and flooding. East coast has hurricanes and tornadoes every once in a while. That really doesn't leave much real estate in the US. The only states left are the ones with brutally extreme heat and/or extreme cold.

Edited September 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[MaineJay]

Last 2 microwave scans.

[StretchCT]

 

From Central America to Central Florida.

[Sentinel]

6 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Let's build all these nice houses in a place that is going to inevitably eventually be destroyed by a huge storm. By the way, outer banks are on line 2 for you....

Emergency managers are for complaints only sooo

[LUCC]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

There are very few states that are nearly prone to destructive events. West coast has the ever-present threat of extreme earthquakes/tsunamis and fires. Central US deals with tornadoes, some fires, flooding, and derechos. South has hurricanes, tornadoes, and flooding. East coast has hurricanes and tornadoes every once in a while. That really doesn't leave much real estate in the US. The only states left are the ones with brutally extreme heat and/or extreme cold.

Don't forget noreasters, beach erosion, ice storms, Philly sports fans, etc. for the eastcoast. 😗

[Sentinel]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

There are very few states that are nearly prone to destructive events. West coast has the ever-present threat of extreme earthquakes/tsunamis and fires. Central US deals with tornadoes, some fires, flooding, and derechos. South has hurricanes, tornadoes, and flooding. East coast has hurricanes and tornadoes every once in a while. That really doesn't leave much real estate in the US. The only states left are the ones with brutally extreme heat and/or extreme cold.

Very true. The issue becomes persons refusing to build for the weather thst will eventually affect them and then crying foul when it does. 

But alas, that is for a different story. 

[1816]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

There are very few states that are nearly prone to destructive events. West coast has the ever-present threat of extreme earthquakes/tsunamis and fires. Central US deals with tornadoes, some fires, flooding, and derechos. South has hurricanes, tornadoes, and flooding. East coast has hurricanes, and tornadoes every once in a while. That really doesn't leave much real estate in the US. The only states left are the ones with brutally extreme heat and/or extreme cold.

I live in sw VA. So I purposefully choose to live in a place that's generally immune to mother nature's blast you off the earth bullshit. So I'm clearly biased 😂

[StretchCT]

This area is screwed too.  Surge extends past rt 41.  Punta Gorda is just a part of the GOM.

[Sentinel]

5 minutes ago, LUCC said:

Don't forget noreasters, beach erosion, ice storms, Philly sports fans, etc. for the eastcoast. 😗

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

7 minutes ago, LUCC said:

Don't forget noreasters, beach erosion, ice storms, Philly sports fans, etc. for the eastcoast. 😗

I was mostly talking about events that destroy property in a way that earthquakes/tsunamis/fires/tornadoes/derechos do. Beach erosion is one I missed though.

Edit: I totally missed that Philly spots fans part. 😂😬

7 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Very true. The issue becomes persons refusing to build for the weather thst will eventually affect them and then crying foul when it does. 

But alas, that is for a different story. 

The lack of EF5s since the integration of the EF system is being blamed on housing that isn't built to sustain an EF5. Most recent example was the Mayfield tornado. It's crazy that houses in tornado prone areas aren't built that way. I'd imagine newer houses that are being built are built to sustain that, but it's gonna take a while for it be a more common thing.

But for hurricanes and fires, there's really not much you can do to prevent what happens. 

6 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I live in sw VA. So I purposefully choose to live in a place that's generally immune to mother nature's blast you off the earth bullshit. So I'm clearly biased 😂

That's a pretty solid place to avoid disasters. Not entirely immune from tornadoes and fires but not bad. 

Edited September 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

Left the tidal layer in there to show the entire islands are underwater.  I'm guessing there's waves too?

[1816]

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

This area is screwed too.  Surge extends past rt 41.  Punta Gorda is just a part of the GOM.

I hate to say it but there's no escaping it. If it stalls like it's been showing the models are woefully inadequate for predicting the storm surge. In my own inexpert opinion you can pretty much double this.  These areas are going to get swamped if the models are on to this right now. 

[MaineJay]

10 hour loop. Looks like he grew a mohawk over Florida.

[1816]

3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I was mostly talking about events that destroy property in a way that earthquakes/tsunamis/fires/tornadoes/derechos do. Beach erosion is one I missed though.

Edit: I totally missed that Philly spots fans part. 😂😬

The lack of EF5s since the integration of the EF system is being blamed on housing that isn't built to sustain an EF5. Most recent example was the Mayfield tornado. It's crazy that houses in tornado prone areas aren't built that way. I'd imagine newer houses that are being built are built to sustain that, but it's gonna take a while for it be a more common thing.

But for hurricanes and fires, there's really not much you can do to prevent what happens. 

That's a pretty solid place to avoid disasters. Not entirely immune from tornadoes and fires but not bad. 

Cost, dude. It's the cost.  Building to ef5 standard would have to be prohibitively expensive. Also why wouldn't you develop an area 1 foot above sea level for a 5 million dollar profit. Duh