Iceresistance Posted September 26, 2022 Author Share Posted September 26, 2022 Latest VDM has a 11 Nautical Mile wide Circular eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 26, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 26, 2022 6 hour loop. The CDO had warmed quite a bit as the morning convection ran outta steam. We'll see if this newest flare up has more staying power. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 26, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 26, 2022 2 hours ago, clm said: So does that towering help strengthen the eye? Does it also help feed the storm in terms of wind and/or rain? In a sense. The towering itself is an indicator, not the mechanism, regarding the strengthening. Hurricanes strengthen due to laten heat release. What this means is that Water Vapor is lifted from the surface and cools to condense in the upper atmosphere. This condensation necessitates a release of heat (In order to transition from vapor to liquid, there must be a release of heat). This heat release fuels the storm. When you see the towering tops show up on models, what you are seeing is a large amount of latent heat release. The mechanism behinds this remains the same, however, it is happening over a much larger column of air (45k+ feet vs 25-30k feet). This additional height allows for significantly higher amounts of latent heat release. In turn, this allows for a much stronger Tropical System. TL:DR - Higher Cloud Tops signal more latent heat release, thus meaning the storm has copious amounts of fuel. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 26, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 26, 2022 2 hours ago, Psu1313 said: Haha. We have to remember that this is a new forum and we've been split in half. There are some good posters over at WxDisco still, even if PM is a bit bipolar. Looking back at Ian, there really is no good outcome here, but the best outcome is that he stays 200+ miles off shore and comes ashore on the western edge of the current cone. With this, he will interact with the cold front and hopefully lose a lot of punch before landfall, and hopefully less water would be pushed into the Western coast of Florida. Closer to the coast and you're pushing a ton of water into TB, and onshore early, potentially you would have a major hurricane landfalling in Florida. Even PM is a good poster when he is calm. He has a good bit of knowledge, just doesn't always know how to convey it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 26, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 26, 2022 12z GFS max gusts - Southeast on wider GFS, Florida on the .25 Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 26, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 26, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 26, 2022 Euro trend, max gusts and rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 26, 2022 Author Share Posted September 26, 2022 Jeez, the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 And I thought 12z GFS was extreme.... 12z Euro wins 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 26, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 26, 2022 18 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Jeez, the convection. Look at the Water Vapor. This bodes well for RI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 (edited) Eye finally getting 360 degrees with no dry air, and looks like it’s steering away from land? Edited September 26, 2022 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 26, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 26, 2022 As of 2 hours ago, microwave imagery shows a bit of discontinuity if the eye wall, there's some spiraling inward, it's close though. I think it's still trying to organize a coherent, continuous eyewall. I feel like the bands just out from the smallest diameter "ring" keep overpowering the inner eye wall (as it's not mature). This is based on watching the convection pulse, then the clouds tops cool. Then another inner band fires up, tries to pull towards the center and establish itself as the new eyewall. Lather, rinse, repeat. This may also cause it's wobbling? As it appears to be doing. Just explaining my observations. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 40 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: And I thought 12z GFS was extreme.... 12z Euro wins Holy crap. Is this gonna be Harvey 2.0 the floridapocalypse? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, 1816 said: Holy crap. Is this gonna be Harvey 2.0 the floridapocalypse? It only has like 6-8" of rain for the coast which is very hard to believe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Well they said one day Florida would be under water. You just ASSUMED it would be sea level rise. No one ever said it wouldn't just be from 100 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: It only has like 6-8" of rain for the coast which is very hard to believe 60 hours of on shore flow off the gulf of Mexico in a tc. Come on. That's like 20-30 minimum. If there were hills in FL it would actually be apocalyptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 26, 2022 Author Share Posted September 26, 2022 CAT 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 I know this is ot but that typhoon that's hitting Manila went from ts to cat 5 in like 5 minutes. Let's see what Ian's got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2022 Late afternoon strong convective burst 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 26, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 26, 2022 Still no eye, but is fairly pretty (or handsome). More recon heading in. Seems NHC went and upped the winds based on sat presentation. We'll find out soon for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 26, 2022 Author Share Posted September 26, 2022 Latest Microwave pass has a very strong, reinforced eyewall. Darin Deveau on WxTwitter has confirmed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 26, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 26, 2022 Might check this out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Still no eye, but is fairly pretty (or handsome). More recon heading in. Seems NHC went and upped the winds based on sat presentation. We'll find out soon for sure. I was wrong but I was sure the eye would clear out by now. Guess there's something going on to prevent it, could it be all the difficulties this one has had aligning itself and stacking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 26, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 26, 2022 (edited) Cuban radar. http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/02IJuventud/pdeMAXw01a.gif Hey it moves too! Edited September 26, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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